Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 271402
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1002 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary near the Ohio River will provide the
focus for shower and thunderstorm development today. A wave of low
pressure traveling along the front will bring the likelihood for
showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. The chance for
thunderstorms will continue through the weekend when upper
disturbances are forecast to interact with a persistently moist
and unstable airmass.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The morning fog has lifted leaving mostly clear skies across the
northern counties and some clouds across se IN and srn OH.

Models continue to show some convective development across mainly
nrn KY today, but could see them spill over into srn OH/In Backed
off on the onset of the pcpn chances until early afternoon and
moved the nrn edge of the PoP chances a little to the s. Tried to
keep it dry from DAY to CMH northward.

Left high temperture forecast as is, in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A broad upper trough will push into the Central CONUS on Thursday
and Friday. Short wave energy rounding the base of the trough will
develop a weak surface low that will ripple along the stalled
boundary located over Kentucky. The low will provide enhanced
lift as it works gradually eastward, and showers and thunderstorms
are likely to form. The best chance for convective activity on
Thursday will be across the southern half of the FA closer to the
boundary. Southeastern locations may see the bulk of the showers
and thunderstorms on Friday when the weak low will be departing to
the east.

Heavy rainfall may result due to the slow progression of the
system in a moist airmass containing from 1.5 to 2+ inches
precipitable water. Storms may not be very well organized due to
generally weak wind shear, and model soundings that are showing a
fairly saturated environment that should limit severe thunderstorm
potential.

High temperatures are forecast to slip slightly below normal into
the lower 80s in response to cloud cover and and precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday through Sunday another weak shortwave trough will remain
in close proximity to the area with a surface front located across
the CWA. This will help to bring the chance of rain right back to
the area. Given the weak upper level trough quickly pulling east
the cold front stalling across the area seems likely. Given the
chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day have kept high
temperatures near climo. Monday into Tuesday as the shortwave
trough exits weak mid-level ridging will then build overhead as
mid-level high pressure builds over the central United States.
There still remains timing differences on when the high will build
and how far it will build east. For now have just trended PoPs
down.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface frontal boundary has stalled out e-w parallel to the upper
level flow across northern KY. This front will remain quasi-stationary
today before returning as a warm front late tonight and Thursday.

Abundant low level moisture is present along and just north of
this frontal boundary. A few isold showers will remain possible
this morning but coverage is expected to be too low to mention in
the fcst. Visibility restrictions have waffled back and forth
due to differential cloud cover. Southern taf sites have improved
to MVFR or better due to clouds while KILN and KLCK have dropped
to IFR.

Expect fog to improve quickly this morning. The weak stalled sfc
boundary will be the focus for additional diurnally driven
thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon. Have a mention of VCTS at
KCVG and KLUK durg the afternoon being closer to the frontal
boundary. More uncertainty in the forecast tonight as this front
begins to lift north as a warm front.


Have kept tafs dry and only mentioned precipitation at 30 hour
KCVG site after 12z. It is not out of the question that showers
and thunderstorms develop sooner. Have allowed for an increase
in clouds and limited any mention of fog to MVFR restriction at
the normally fog prone locations.

Winds will remain light and variable for all terminals for today.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Thursday and possible again Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Sites
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...AR



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