Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 271759
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1259 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL WORK THROUGH THE REGION WITH CLOUDS GIVING
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND FAVORABLE WINDS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN
HAVE RESULTED IN A BAND OF CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS SE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
ACRS THE NW TO SW. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER VORT ROTATING AROUND
UPR LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE NE.
HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE NE AND ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES
IN THE EAST.

AFTER A COLD START TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO HIGHS FROM THE LOWER
20S N (WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW ON THE GROUND) TO THE LOWER 30S
SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY TONIGHT. WENT COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS MORE SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADY OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE OVERNIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION REACHES THE FA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FA AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ANY FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

BY MID DAY ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN. COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG RANGE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW S/WV ENERGY FROM THE NRN BRANCH OF
THE JET STREAM WILL EITHER PHASE OR NOT PHASE WITH SRN STREAM S/WV
ENERGY. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH WPC FORECAST WHICH IS AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN OF SOLUTIONS. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER
AIR...OF THE ARCTIC VARIETY...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACRS SW OHIO WILL DECREASE AS MID LEVEL S/W DROPS
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS AFTN. MEANWHILE...WRAP AROUND MVFR
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCMH/KLCK AND MAY AFFECT KILN FOR
A PERIOD THIS AFTN. A FEW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE
CENTRAL OHIO TAFS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL ERODE FROM THE WEST AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW TONIGHT. HAVE CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
OHIO.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT AND THEN SE LESS THAN 10 KTS ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...AR





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