Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 272032
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
432 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED MAINLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS RESULTING FROM LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES. IN FACT...LOCAL AND
MOSAIC RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. FOR THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY.
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GOING NEAR ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT WILL  TAKE PLACE
FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE JUST
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HAVE LEANED ON THE RAP AND RAP FORECAST
CEILINGS TO TRY TO TIME THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING. THIS CALLS FOR
CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE TEMPERATURE IMPLICATIONS. HAVE LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. 850 MB COLD POOL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL MODIFY SOME BY DAYS END. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BKN CLOUDS EARLY ON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD DAY FOR
LATE MARCH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH. LOW MAX TEMPS RECORDS SHOULD BE SAFE AT
DAYTON AND COLUMBUS...BUT CINCINNATI HAS A SHOT OF A LEAST TYING
THEIR LOW MAX OF 37 DEGREES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S.

ON SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ADVANCES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S BY DAYS END.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS FOR LIKELY POPS
EARLY ON BEFORE MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST.
THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE THAT PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN AT THIS
POINT. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST LATE WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY.  AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY.  LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NOT SEEING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR THIS AND THE ECMWF
KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY ACROSS THE FA.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE FA ON WEDNESDAY.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  THERE IS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE FORECAST.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE
AND HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.  THERE IS
STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE ENDING OF THE PRECIPITATION.  WENT
WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND HAVE PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD AIR SC HAS EXPANDED AND IS NOW COVERING THE TAFS. CIGS ARE
MAINLY VFR...WITH POCKETS OF MVFR. AS EXPECTED SCATTERED FLURRIES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. VSBYS ARE ALSO
MAINLY VFR...WITH VERY ISOLATED VSBYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MVFR CATEGORY.

PCPN WILL LINGER UNTIL AROUND SUNSET...BUT EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER LONGER THAN THAT. H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO
THE REGION AFT 00Z. AS THIS BEGINS TO SWING THROUGH THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM BUILDING SFC HIGH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NW
TO SE.

LINGERING COLD AIR ALOFT AND SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
COMBINE FOR A FEW SCATTERED CU SATURDAY. DIDNT DEVELOP ANY CEILINGS
AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES





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