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000
FXUS61 KILN 260157
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
957 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DECAYING REMAINS OF EARLIER MCS THAT PROGRESSED EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON IS AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH AREAS OF SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING. BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE BEFORE 2 AM...AND
THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER .05 INCHES FOR THE MOST PART.

CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGHOUT
THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...THE
BACK EDGE OF CIRRUS AND ALTO-CU CANOPY BEING TRACKED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AT THIS HOUR WILL MAKE IT TO THOSE ZONES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. THIS MAY YIELD ENOUGH OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR EXTREME EASTERN ZONES BEFORE
SUNRISE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST FOR THOSE ZONES IN
CASE THAT SCENARIO DOES OCCUR. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVER DOES REMAIN
OVER THOSE ZONES FOR MUCH LONGER THAN FORECAST...THEN THE CHANCES
FOR ANY TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S WILL DIMINISH
RAPIDLY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ZONES...TWEAKED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY DUE TO TRENDS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA ON SUNDAY HOWEVER EXPECT THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE FA
TO REMAIN DRY. WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY ON MONDAY
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE FA. THERE IS ONLY LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FA. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALTHOUGH A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THERE WILL BE SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NOT YET CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. SO
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
IN THE WARM SECTOR.

THEREAFTER RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM COULD START TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH BY SATURDAY TO
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. BUT PROBABILITY LOOKS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTH OF A KDAY...KILN LINE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER ANY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION
IN VSBYS DUE TO THEIR LIGHT NATURE. THEREFORE AM FORECASTING VCSH
FOR THE INITIAL TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL ADD TEMPOS AT A LATER
AMENDMENT IF IT BECOMES APPARENT SHOWERS WILL BECOME HEAVIER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. BKN TO OVC MID DECK WILL PERSIST ACROSS THESE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. NORTH OF THE KDAY/KILN
LINE...SKIES WILL VARY WITH A MIX OF BKN TO SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS CLOSER TO 00Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER
10 KT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LATTO