Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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658
FXUS61 KILN 300811
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
411 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT WILL PUSH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY WHEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO OHIO. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL WORK IN FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT BAND OF OVERRUNNING SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO THE
SW COUNTIES OF THE CWA. EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT HEADS NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MEASURE PCPN BEFORE IT
DOES.

THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FA AFTER
SUNRISE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT REACHES THE AREA. SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF THIS PCPN A
COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. KEPT THE
CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FOR THE AREA TODAY. BACKED OFF ON THE
CHANCE OF THUNDER TODAY AS THE WRMFNT DOESNT REACH THE SRN
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND 00Z. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL ACT TO HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES TODAY. BACKED HIGHS DOWN TO THE UPPER 50S IN WEST
CENTRAL OHIO DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIAMI VALLEY...TO THE MID 60S IN
NORTHERN KY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE WRMFNT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
INCREASED INSTABILITY. BROUGHT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL CHANCES OF PCPN SHOULD BE DECREASING
AS THE FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED. TEMPERATURES WONT FALL TOO MUCH
TONIGHT...ONLY FALLING BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S IN WEST CENTRAL
OHIO TO THE UPPER 50S AROUND THE OHIO RIVER.

ON SUNDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EJECTING
UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...A SFC LOW WILL
PUSH INTO OHIO. THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
SUNDAY...BUT SEVERAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO POINT TO A DRY
MORNING...BEFORE AFTERNOON HEATING KICKS OFF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
MORNING...SINCE THE FA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
IS UNSTABLE. INCREASED THE POPS TO THEIR HIGHEST DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR EAST.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S...EXCEPT TO THE
NW PORTIONS OF THE FA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DROPPING ENERGY OUT OF CANADA AND CUTTING A H5
LOW OFF OVER THE LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. INCREASED POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CDFNT
CROSSES THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF OVER THE REGION FOR
LATE IN THE WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS LOW...SO LEFT THE
PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL COOL OFF TO AROUND 60 FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STARTING OUT VFR WITH SOME MID CLOUDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO
CVG/LUK AREA TOWARD SUNRISE. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ARRIVE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GO MVFR
WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF IFR BY EVENING. EAST WILL INCREASE TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING. CLOUDS
AND SOME FOG WILL PERSIST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...PADGETT



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