Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 020758
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TODAY. A VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE A COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS TO THE
WEST. AS PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES THIS MORNING...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TO TWO
SYSTEMS WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE...WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE WARM ADVECTION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
ABOVE 80 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL REACH INDIANA
TONIGHT BEFORE CROSSING OHIO ON FRIDAY. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COUNTIES
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST. VIGOROUS WIND
FIELDS WILL HELP CONVECTIVE LINES AND CELLS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
AND LONGER-LIVED...THOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR.

A MOIST FLOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING PWAT VALUES 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. THIS WILL ALLOW HEAVY RAIN TO OCCUR WITH SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. THE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT AND DRY
SOIL CONDITIONS SHOULD MITIGATE THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING. THOUGH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD END EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
TRAVELS EAST OF THE AREA...AN UPPER LOW FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
RETREATING TO THE LOW 70S FRIDAY IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP. READINGS
WILL THEN PLUMMET SATURDAY IN THE BRISK WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S
NORTHWEST UP TO THE MID 50S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...THE
REGION WILL ENTER A REGIME OF DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS AFTER SATURDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDEST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

BEYOND SUNDAY...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO BE DRY...CONFIDENCE
DECREASES IN THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES THROUGH THE FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. GFSE PLOTS SHOW A WIDE ARRAY OF SPREAD IN TROUGH
PLACEMENT AND AMPLITUDE...AND AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IS
ONLY DECENT AT BEST. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO HAVE A
HIGHER CHANCE THAN OTHER TIME PERIODS FOR PRECIPITATION...AND THIS
HAS BEEN REFINED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS...EXTENDING SLIGHTLY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SOME THIN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN TOWARD SUNRISE. LOCAL FOG WILL DEVELOP
WITH MVFR VSBYS AT KILN AND KLCK AND IFR VSBYS AT KLUK.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
WITH SCTD CUMULUS CLOUDS AND MID/HI LEVEL CIGS DURG THE DAY. MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE WITH MID LEVEL CIGS DEVELOPING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
HAVE LIMITED ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION TO 30 HOUR KCVG TAF AFTER 08Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN AGAIN MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR





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