Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 261149
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
649 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS WORKED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES TODAY...AS SOME CI WORKS INTO THE REGION DURING THE
DAY.

THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AS HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. H5 TROF
TONIGHT...WITH A SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT IN LIFTING THE SFC LOW OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. 00Z MODELS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE ONSET
OF THE PCPN WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER PUSHING A
SMALLER AREA OF QPF QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING A BETTER SHOT OF PCPN INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE CDFNT SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z MODELS IS TO LINGER PCPN
A LITTLE LONGER...SO THERE MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD. HELD ONTO PCPN
CHANCE INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE SE HALF.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE
50S BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY...THOUGH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. ANYTHING THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VARIABLE VSBYS AT KLUK IN RIVER VLY FOG WILL IMPROVE THIS MORNING
AS FLOW PICKS UP FROM THE SOUTH. CI WILL OVERTOP THE REGION TODAY
AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN MOISTURE SO THAT SOME LOWER
STRATUS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TOMORROW...MORESO FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...SHOBE2
AVIATION...FRANKS






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