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000
FXUS61 KILN 060947
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
447 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY BEFORE COMING
TO AN END TONIGHT. ANOTHER WINTER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LINGERING
INTO MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE
LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH...BUT MAY STILL HAMPER TRAVEL
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION IN A BROAD
SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE REGION IS NOW ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE CDFNT
WHICH HAS PUSHED INTO WV. THE COLD AIR PUSH HAS SLOWED DOWN OVER
NIGHT...LEAVING THE EXTREME SE COUNTIES EXPERIENCING ALL LIQUID
PCPN...WHILE FARTHER THE NW AROUND I-71 CORRIDOR...A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX EXITS...WITH ALL SNOW IN THE NW COUNTIES.

THE AREA IS SEEING A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. AN AREA OF
GLAZE OF A TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE PCPN WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW FROM NW TO THE SE. THE 00Z MODELS WERE CONSISTENT IN PUSHING
A ENHANCED WAVE UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BRINGS A
LARGE SLUG OF QPF IN THE AREA. UPPED SNOW TOTALS THIS
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR WHERE A HEAVY BAND MIGHT
OCCUR IN THE TRANSITION ZONE.

THE EXTREME SE COUNTIES SHOULD SEE SOME MORE RAIN TODAY. DONT
THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ENUF QPF FOR FLOODING...BUT WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING NW OF I-71...WITH THE
MID 30S IN THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE LIFT PUSHES E. A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS E FOR SATURDAY. SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY
GO CLEAR OUT.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STARTING A LITTLE
LATER. BACKED OFF THE PCPN UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. INDICATIONS ARE
SHOWING THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT BE A LITTLE COLDER. STILL LOOKS LIKE
A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN AT THE ONSET...BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS IN LATER.
THIS IS A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODELS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL HOLD OFF ANY HEADLINES.


TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COLD...IN THE MID 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL DROP AGAIN TO 15-20.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEYOND MONDAY...BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT...MOST OF NEXT WEEK
APPEARS DRY BUT FRIGID. RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE TOO
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY AN EXPECTED SNOWPACK (WITH MIN TEMP
BULLSEYES WELL INTO NEGATIVE NUMBERS ON SEVERAL DIFFERENT MODELS).
HOWEVER...THE TREND IS CLEAR...AND BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS HAVE
BEEN LOWERED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EVENTUALLY GET (BARELY) ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE ILN CWA
EARLY ON MONDAY...SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
FOUR DAYS STRAIGHT...EVEN FOR MAXES. NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WERE
DRAWN IN FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT BEST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE TAIL END OF THE SNOW OCCURRING TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
18Z AND 2Z WITH A HEIGHTENED CHANCE ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR FROM
19-23Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
WITH EXCEPTION OF DAYTON. SIGNIFICANT ICE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ALL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>073-077>080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR OHZ074-081-082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR KYZ089>097.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR KYZ098>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU/SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...FRANKS