Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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203
FXUS61 KILN 201727
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1227 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the Ohio Valley this morning will move to
the Carolinas this evening. A cold front will move east into the
western Great Lakes tonight, and then across the remainder of
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. High
pressure will return to the region for Wednesday and Thanksgiving
Day. Temperatures near normal will drop to below normal
readings for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure centered just off to our south will shift
east through this afternoon. With a dry airmass in place, expect
to just see some high level cirrus today. Temperatures will push
in to the mid to upper 40s for highs today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As the center of the high moves off the Carolina coast tonight,
a cold front will move east into the western Great Lakes. We
should see some cirrus overnight, some from the departing
disturbance and more ahead of the next system. Winds will stay
up with some local gusts developing overnight across the
northwest as the gradient tightens well ahead of the cold front.
Lows will range from the lower to mid 30s.

On Tuesday, mid level s/wv will dig southeast into the Great
Lakes. As this occurs, the cold front will move southeast,
entering our northwest zones by late in the day. Models have
trended wetter with this front, such that a chance of showers is
now in the forecast for the northwest late Tuesday afternoon.
Clouds will increase from northwest to southeast throughout the
day. It will be breezy with wind gusts in the 20 to 30 knot
range. Highs will range from the upper 40s northwest to the mid
50s southeast.

For Tuesday night, mid level s/wv is expected to pivot east
across the southern Great Lakes, pushing the cold front through
our area. Again, the models have trended wetter, so now have a
chance of showers for the northern/eastern zones where forcing
and moisture will be the greatest, tapering off to a slight
chance elsewhere. Precipitation will occur mostly in the
evening, departing by early morning. Partial clearing is
expected overnight with temperatures falling into the upper 20s
to the lower 30s by morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will be east of the area by Wednesday morning, with
cold advection occurring across the area, as surface high pressure
begins to move into the region from the middle Mississippi Valley
region. As the depiction of this cold front has continued to
strengthen in the models, so has the cold air behind it, resulting
in a 10-15 degree drop in max temps from Tuesday to Wednesday (a
little more pronounced than in previous forecasts).

A fast (if wavy) northern stream will set up across the northern
CONUS / southern tier of Canada through the rest of the extended
forecast period. The Ohio Valley will largely remain in a regime of
weaker westerly / northwesterly flow to the south of the stronger
jet, at least through the rest of the week, with some adjustment as
a shortwave builds southward on Saturday.

There has been some consolidation of model solutions with regards to
this wave, and a cold front that will also move through the region
at around the same time. With warm advection Friday night into
Saturday morning (and likely non-diurnal temperatures) conditions
should be warm enough to allow for rain as the precipitation type
when the front crosses the area. Nonetheless, with limited moisture
(as will be the case through the entire extended forecast period)
PoPs will be kept on the low end.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak mid level disturbance will shift east across the region
tonight. The airmass is dry with this feature but a
strengthening low level jet associated with it, could lead to
some LLWS later tonight into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...JGL



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