Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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949
FXUS63 KILX 120917
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A weak clipper system tracking quickly southeast over western
Missouri has spread a band of mostly light snow into parts of
central through southeast Illinois early this morning. A narrow band
of light to moderate snow was located from Springfield southeast to
just north of Taylorville where a few locations may see up to 1.5
inches before the snow moves out this morning. Otherwise, the rest
of the area should see generally less than one inch. The weak
surface low was located over southern Missouri and will continue to
track quickly away from our area today taking any lingering snow off
to our east by late this morning.

In the wake of the weak clipper system, another surge of Arctic air
will spill southeast into the region this afternoon accompanied by a
gusty northwest wind. Some of the areas over central through
southeast Illinois that has some light accumulation of snow this
morning may actually see some blowing snow at times this afternoon
as winds gust up to 30 mph at times. Temperatures will struggle into
the low 20s far northwest to the lower 30s far southeast this
afternoon, but once the winds start to increase, temperatures
and wind chills will start to drop off later this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A brief respite from the snow expected for tonight, although the
bitterly cold temperatures will settle into Central Illinois
tonight. Mostly clear skies will help the temperatures drop down
into the low single digits as the sun rises on Saturday. Although
the winds are only expected in the 10 to 12mph range, the wind
chills will be close to advisory criteria potentially across the
northern half of the state. Highs only expected into the teens for
the first half of the weekend.  Models continue to speed up the
precip for the next clipper like system for Sat night.  Previously
not expected until Sunday morning, now models are accelerating the
onset of the precip to just around midnight Sat night.  Timing
issues with the last couple of systems lowers confidence in this
being the final word.  Expect adjustments.  Either way, snow
expected most of the day Sunday and Sunday night.  General amounts
of 2 to 4 inches expected before the snow tapers off on Monday.
Again, forecast will be shifting in the next couple runs as can be
expected in fast moving systems in rapid nwrly flow.

Behind the snow, a major pattern shift will begin a slow warming
trend as the ridge that has been dominating the western half of the
country moves into the Midwest. High temperatures should be back
above the freezing mark for Wednesday, and into the 40s and 50s
Thursday and Friday, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

Snow has not begun at any of the TAF sites yet, but with mosaic
radar loop showing most of the snow still west of the area and
nothing being reported under the higher returns on radar, thinking
is that flurries will occur at most of the TAF sites overnight,
with SPI only site getting light snow overnight for a few hours
from 07z to 09z. Vis at SPI during the light snow will be 3sm
while remainder of the time, think vis will be VFR. Do not see
cigs dropping to MVFR levels until after the snow has ended over
the area, due to very dry lower layers...seen on 00z UA sounding
and any snow currently falling is just moistening up the lower
layer. MVFR cigs at 2.5kft will occur from early morning til
afternoon in the west and later afternoon in the east. Then clouds
will scatter out and last til evening. Winds will be light out of
the southwest to start, but then become westerly and then
northwesterly for the afternoon and evening. Light wind speeds til
after winds shift to west and northwest. Then speeds increase and
become gusty with gusts of 23-38kts possible.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Auten



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