Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 231744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1244 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Issued at 1056 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Current forecast looks on track, but need to raise pops in the
northwest half of the CWA where precip is definitely occurring
this morning. This will continue to the east, but diminish some as
it moves east. Heaviest rainfall could be in the north, but
overall qpf amounts will not be excessive, likely less than one
half inch. Update will be out shortly.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017
Deep upper level trough stretching from Minnesota back across the
CONUS into the desert SW this morning. Surface map also has an
elongated trough from weak low pressure center over southern WI.
Cold front across the center of the country back into the Southern
Plains. A weak pressure gradient with the actual trough has light
and somewhat variable winds over the region. Deep moisture in
forecast soundings needing little under southwesterly flow aloft
to lift into showers throughout the overnight. This will
continue...with the chances for precip increasing through the day
when peak heating gives a diurnal assist to the development of
more convectively driven showers and the occasional rumble of
thunder. Temperatures expected to be cool through the day, and
highs will remain in the 60s for a lot of Central IL...with the
southeast the only potential to see temps into the 70s. Overnight
the lingering showers and thunderstorms will also limit the drop
of temps behind the cold front passage, although the winds will
come around to more northerly.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Wednesday expected to be cloudy and cooler behind the cold
front...with low pops for scattered showers again as the upper low
is very slow to move out of the region. Models having a hard time
with the evolution of the low beyond midweek still...with the
soundings still almost saturated through Thursday morning...and
clouds seem more likely. However, should the low speed up a bit...
could clear earlier. Either way, models still pushing what looks
like a strong wave/MCS for Friday night...with Saturday being
another stormy day as a surface low tracks through the Midwest,
and a warm frontal passage during the day on Saturday. The
holiday weekend will be warmer...but stormy.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Rain continues to move through the area this afternoon and as it
does, cigs will drop to IFR at PIA and BMI...and MVFR at
SPI/DEC/CMI. Vis will also drop to around 4-5 miles when the
heaviest rain will occur. There could be a break in the precip
this evening...but will keep at least VCSH at all sites tonight.
The true break in the precip will come during the early morning
hours at all sites. However, some sites will still see IFR to MVFR
clouds through tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable most of
the period.




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