Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 280559
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

High pressure shifting off to the east and a low approaching the
upper Midwest will allow a southerly flow to develop over the
upcoming day, bringing warmer temperatures tonight and tomorrow. A
fairly substantial boundary layer flow will bring gusty conditions
along with quite breezy conditions by late Wednesday morning,
especially north of I-70, and have updated forecast for stronger
winds/gusts 15-20 mph with gusts approaching 30 mph. Otherwise,
forecast is in good shape, with at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms reaching the Illinois River northwestward by
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

High pressure will continue to move off to the east as the upper
level pattern becomes zonal. Dry weather is expected tonight
through tomorrow morning, but with the high to the east, southerly
winds will return to the area during the day Wed and bring warmer
temps and higher dwpts into the area for the rest of the week.
Also expecting a storm complex to develop out west in eastern NE
late tonight and then move east across IA through tomorrow
morning. An associated outflow boundary from this storm complex
should be located across northwest IL tomorrow afternoon. With the
increasing moisture, chance for storms will return for Wed
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

As this first complex of storms redevelops and moves into the
Great Lakes region, the associated cold front/outflow boundary
will begin to lay out over parts of central IL, resulting in storm
possibilities continuing and increasing Wed night...with the
highest pops being in the north part of the CWA. The chance of
storms will continue Thur during the day, but greater chances are
expected Thursday night into Friday as another complex of storms
develops out in the plains and then moves toward the area late
Thur night into Friday. As the upper level pattern begins to
change from being zonal to a trough across the center of the US,
the chance of storms will continue into Friday night, but mainly
across the eastern and southeastern parts of the CWA.

Dry weather is then expected Sat and Sat night as the frontal
system pushes east and the pattern becomes northwest flow. This
pattern change will not bring a return to dry weather, but instead
bring periodic chances of storms for the latter part of the
weekend and into next week.

Temps will remain warm through the Long Term period even with
clouds/precip and a change to a northwest flow over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

VFR throughout for now. Increasing pressure gradient will result
in prolonged southerly winds on this side of the ridge. Scattered
shower and thunderstorms will move in NW of the IL River and PIA
at the end of the TAF pd, but models are delaying a bit. May end
up in the next issuance but not just yet. Cirrus and mid level
clouds throughout and winds becoming increasingly southerly after
sunrise around 16-22 kts with gusts 25-30 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...37
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...HJS



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