Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 232255
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
655 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING MORE
CLOUDS TO MOVE IN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW
WILL MEANDER FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES FROM SUNDAY ON
BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 634 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND /ALBEIT JUST SPRINKLES/ ACROSS ILLINOIS
WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS NEAR 30 DEGREES. THUS WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON HOW RAIN PROGRESSES IN CASE SPRINKLES NEED TO BE ADDED TO
FORECAST. DID INCREASE SKY COVER SOME BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT BUT THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS UPSTREAM UNTIL MORNING. WITH VERY DRY DEW
POINTS...EASTERLY COMPONENT FLOW...AND DRY COLUMN UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE THINK MODELS ARE OVERDOING PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THE FORMING WARM FRONT AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SHOULD
SEE INCREASING CLOUDS RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE BUT THAT
SHOULD BE IT. TEMPERATURE-WISE WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POPS/TIMING AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
THURSDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY
USED A CONSENSUS APPROACH. THIS SET OF RUNS IS EVEN SLOWER WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND HOLDS IT OFF
UNTIL AFTER 0Z...WITH THE NAM AS LATE AS 6Z AND THE ECMWF A SLOW AND
FURTHER SOUTH OUTLIER WITH THE LOW CENTER. THUS STUCK CLOSE TO A
NAM/GFS AVERAGE FOR TIMING AND ONLY INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE FROM 21Z
THURSDAY-0Z FRIDAY. RAMPED POPS UP AFTER 0Z AND INCLUDED CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 3-6Z WITH THE FRONTAL FORCING MOVING IN
AND UPPER FORCING MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH A 40 KT OR SO LOW LEVEL
JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF. MUCAPES
OF A FEW HUNDRED ARE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT
WILL BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 12Z AND THUS CONTINUING WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT OF A SPOKE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. RIGHT NOW THIS
DOESN/T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...BUT IT IS SHOWING UP IN THE BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM AND MAV POPS ARE NOW IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE
NORTH. DECIDED TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BACK IN PLACE FOR DRY
WEATHER ON SATURDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK CLOSER TO WARMER MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS BASED
ON PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPERATURES...AND WARMER THAN ALL GUIDANCE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

ECMWF AND GFS SHOW QUIET WEATHER AND RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST AT THAT TIME.
HOWEVER THERE ARE BIG CHANGES FOR THE BEGINNING ON NEXT WEEK AS
BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLOWLY LINGER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN
TO CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MORE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST AND
EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IND SHOULD SEE SHOWERS MOVE IN AFTER
02Z FRIDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH SOME INSTABILITY...ALBEIT
WEAK...WOULD NOT RULE OUT THUNDER EITHER...BUT TOO FAR OUT TO BE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE IND TAF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK

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