Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 010142
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE (THROUGH TOMORROW)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NOTED ON
RADAR ALONG I-10 AND DEVELOPING FROM ALACHUA COUNTY SOUTHWARD.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE EVENING.
WHILE WE LACKED SIGNIFICANT HEATING TODAY....A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
AND AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OPEN WAVE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA CAUSED SHOWER AND TSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SE
GULF THROUGH THE JACKSONVILLE COAST.

THE SOUNDING THIS EVENING IS QUITE SATURATED WITH PWAT VALUES AT
2.46 INCHES. THIS MEANS HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL STILL BE A
CONCERN OVER THE ALREADY SATURATED AREAS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SEVERAL HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING CONVECTION ATTEMPTING
TO ORGANIZE TOMORROW NEAR THE 850 MB VORT MAX OFF THE TAMPA COAST
FROM ERIKA`S REMNANTS.

EXPECT WEAK SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. TOMORROW RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP AS
VORT MAX MOVES CLOSER TO THE BIG BEND COAST AND OUTFLOWS FROM
MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTLINE AND INCREASED HEATING
INCREASE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECITON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE GNV TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 04Z...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING NEAR THE NORTHEAST FL
TERMINALS...BUT TIMING AND INTENSITY REMAIN IN QUESTION.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 14Z. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...SPREADING BANDS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. USED A PROB30 GROUP AT EACH TERMINAL
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING AT 14Z AT GNV...AND
THEN AFTER 15Z/16Z ELSEWHERE. SURFACE WINDS OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS
AT THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR
THE MARINE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE PERSISTENT THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  91  73  93 /  10  40  20  50
SSI  76  85  74  85 /  30  50  30  50
JAX  74  87  76  90 /  50  60  30  60
SGJ  74  86  75  87 /  40  60  30  60
GNV  73  87  72  89 /  50  70  30  60
OCF  73  88  73  90 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WALSH/NELSON/COMBS


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