Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 190730
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
330 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.NEAR TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Low clouds and patchy fog early this morning will affect mainly
ne Fl where locally heavy rainfall occurred yesterday. Expect
another round of convection this afternoon/evening similar to
Fridays activity. Most of the showers and storms will be across ne
Fl into coastal areas of se Ga where the highest moisture exists.
Locally heavy rainfall will be the main concern due to a light sw
steering flow and PWATs around 2 inches. Showers will die off by
midnight with temperatures a few degrees above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Sunday and Monday)...
Upper level low across southern Florida will move into the
Central Gulf on Sunday and weakens into an open wave by Monday. At
the surface, onshore flow develops as high pressure across the
Atlantic moves northward. A weak surface trough across Georgia may
provide additional convergence to kick off a few more
thunderstorms across southeastern Georgia Sunday.

Upper level ridge from the Atlantic noses further westward on
Monday, which may help to limit PoPs and cloud cover for eclipse
viewing - the highlight of this timeframe. For now have just
slight chance to chance (20-40%) across most of the area. Sky
cover will resemble most summer afternoons with cumulus clouds and
a few thunderstorms by early to mid-afternoon. Atlantic seabreeze
is expected to develop though with weak steering flow, it likely
won`t be able to move too far inland. Temperatures will warm into
the upper 80s/low 90s before the eclipse, and any areas that
aren`t seeing much in the way of cloud cover could cool off a few
degrees with max obscurity (2-3pm).

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)...
Upper level ridge moves further west across most of the Southeast
on Tuesday, and surface high follows suit and weakens. Continued
lower rain chances and above normal temperatures (highs in the mid
90s and heat index values in the triple digits) are expected
through Wednesday when the upper level ridge begins to break down.
Heights begin falling as a large upper level trough moves into the
Northeast. Rain chances will be on the rise to end the workweek as
the base of the upper level trough settles in across Georgia. A
weak front will accompany the upper level dynamics, and surface
troughing/higher rain chances will linger into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds and patchy fog have developed overnight across ne Fl.
Expect periods of IFR/LIFR conditions til 13z when fog and clouds
will burn off. Have PROB30 for thunderstorms this afternoon after
17z.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface ridge will be to the south today with a trough
to the north that will produce sw winds...becoming onshore near
the coast this afternoon. The ridge will shift north on Sunday and
will be to the north next week providing a se flow. No headlines
expected.

Rip Currents: Low risk today and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  74  95  75 /  10   0  30  10
SSI  89  78  90  79 /  30  40  20  20
JAX  92  76  92  77 /  40  40  20  20
SGJ  90  75  89  77 /  40  20  20  30
GNV  92  73  93  74 /  40  20  40  10
OCF  92  74  92  75 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Zibura/Elsenheimer/



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