Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KJAX 281740
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN...WITH ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK...

.NEAR TERM /THRU FRIDAY/...

DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
YIELDING LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOW TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT LOOKS
GOOD...WITH LOW/MID 60S INLAND...NEAR 70 COAST.

FOR FRIDAY...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME COASTAL SHOWERS
AFFECTING COASTLINE ST. AUGUSTINE SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON...
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO PUTNAM/ERN MARION COUNTIES. MAINTAINED
CURRENT FORECAST OF 20 POP SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA.
SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI COMPARED TO TODAY... IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN...NEAR 90 INTERIOR...MID-UPR 80S EASTERN
COUNTIES ...LOW-MID 80S COAST.

.SHORT TERM /FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT/...

MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AS TROF OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WRN
ATLANTIC WILL TRACK WESTWARD INTO SE GA/NE FL FRI NIGHT AND WILL
MAXIMIZE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ON SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS AT TIMES WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST FRI NIGHT AND PUSHING INTO INLAND AREAS ON SATURDAY WITH
EVENT BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE BY SAT NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES WEST OF THE REGION AND WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE STORMS AS TROF/DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAK IN NATURE BUT
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. MAX TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
INLAND.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SUN-TUE...LINGERING SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW AND SLIGHTLY MORE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG THE ATLC COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ACTIVATES WITH MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THEN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WITH A
FEW BECOMING STRONG EACH DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S INLAND.

WED-THU...LONG RANGE MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT
WITH A PATTERN CHANGE WITH STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
OUT OF THE WRN CARIB WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX BY
THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION POSSIBLY MOVING
NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN IN THE EARLY
SUMMER MONTHS CAN PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND STORMS ACROSS NE
FL/SE GA...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES STALLED ACROSS OUT
REGION INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND PERIOD. FOR NOW WE EXPECT
ONSHORE FLOW TO INCREASE WITH AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
POTENTIAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE
FLORIDA PENINSLA AND OFF THE WRN ATLC WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL
AT TIMES DURING DAYTIME HEATING. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
RAINFALL IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL HELP A FEW AREAS ALONG
THE ATLC COAST THAT HAVE RECEIVED VERY LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST 30 DAYS. THE FULL MOON PEAKS ON TUESDAY JUNE 2ND...SO WILL BE
MOVING AWAY FROM PEAK HIGH TIDES SO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH HIGHER RIP CURRENT
RISK...ROUGH SURF...MINOR BEACH EROSION AND ELEVATED TIDAL LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS
3-5 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT WIND INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS THE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROF MOVES ONSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED MODERATE RISK WITH ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  90  67  90 /   0  10  10  30
SSI  69  82  72  81 /  10  10  20  50
JAX  65  86  69  86 /   0  10  20  40
SGJ  70  82  72  82 /  10  20  30  50
GNV  62  88  68  89 /   0  20  10  40
OCF  65  89  69  90 /   0  20  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/HESS/GUILLET


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.