Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 260700
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
300 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...Twin mid-upper level lows over
the Fl panhandle and off the ne Fl coast will linger today before
lifting out tonight. Weak surface low now off the ne Fl coast
will provide moderate ne winds with numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the coastal waters north of SGJ. These showers
will reach coastal counties from mainly Duval northward this
morning. With daytime heating isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will form over land this afternoon...shifting to the Suwannee
Valley by late afternoon/evening. Temperatures today will at or
slightly cooler than yesterdays readings due to increased cloud
cover and shower activity. Highs will mostly be in the mid to
upper 80s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s inland to the
lower 70s coast.

Tue-Wed Night...Weak trof of low pressure just NE of the region off
the SE U.S. coast Tue morning will track NE and will allow for slow
moving cold front to push through the SE U.S. and into the SE GA/NE
FL region by Wed Night. Overall expect unsettled weather with
scattered showers and storms...more prevalent during the afternoon
and evening hours and a few may become strong with gusty winds,
frequent lightning and brief heavy rainfall. The SW steering flow
will continue above normal temps and humidity with Max Temps well
into the mid/upper 80s, and even some 90 degree readings over inland
areas along with Min temps only in the lower/middle 70s Tue Night.
Timing of cooler/drier airmass behind cold front still in question
for late Wed Night, but Thu Morning lows acrs inld SE GA/Suwannee
River Valley could fall into the lower/middle 60s although still
expect above normal temps near 70 degrees ahead of the front
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM /Thu-Sun/...

Thu...Some models slower timing of frontal passage could produce a
few lingering showers/storms across NE FL during the morning hours
but overall still expect improving sky conds and drier airmass to
filter into the region later in the day as NW winds develop behind
the frontal passage.

Thu Night-Fri Night...Mostly Clear skies through this period as
drier airmass over the region with widespread lows in the 50s across
inland SE GA/Suwannee River Valley over inland N FL with 60s
elsewhere and Max Temps in the lower/middle 80s Fri PM with lower
relative humidity.

Sat-Sun...Stronger High Pressure builds north of the region over the
Mid Atlc States which will shift the low level flow back out of the
NE and off the ATLC which will bring low rain chances back into
Coastal NE FL and breezy winds, while inland areas should remain
dry. Moderation in airmass will lead to min temps generally in the
60s and highs in the lower/middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail today with cigs mostly
above 3kft. Scattered showers will affect TAF sites near the east
coast early this morning with MVFR cigs possible. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and have VCTS after 17z.

&&

.MARINE...With weak surface low off the ne Fl coast the pressure
gradient and winds will be stronger over the Ga waters today with
ne winds up to 15 knots. Winds and seas will decrease over the Ga
waters tonight as the low moves ne and winds become offshore. A
cold front will slowly move across the waters late Wed into
Thursday. No headlines expected at this time.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today due to onshore winds and
lingering swells.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  68  90  69 /  40  10  30  30
SSI  84  69  86  73 /  50  40  20  20
JAX  87  70  89  71 /  40  10  20  20
SGJ  85  70  87  73 /  30  20  30  20
GNV  88  67  89  70 /  30  20  30  10
OCF  88  69  89  71 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Zibura/Hess


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