Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 300632 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
232 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION
TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD DEPART THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE MEASURING...BUT AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH...AND MOSTLY 0.05 OR LESS. THE CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN VALID.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1142 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE VICINITY
OF FLEMINGSBURG...SOUTHWEST TO BOWLING GREEN WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS ARE
FINALLY COMING UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS.
OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND AS IT STANDS
NOW SHOULD BE QUICK TO MOVE ON THROUGH WITH JUST A 2 TO 4 HOUR
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER NOTED
BACK BEHIND THIS LINE OF SHOWERS...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH FASTER
CLEARING BACK BEHIND THE SHOWERS. THIS WILL MEAN A FASTER RETURN
OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING. ON TOP OF ALL OF THIS TEMPERATURES
HAVE STAYED MUCH MILDER TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY
WITH NO REAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION RATES REALLY NOT
GOOD ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ALL THAT MUCH. TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT MILDER IN THE MORNING...COMBINED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE...COULD SPELL A WARMER DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS EASILY
PUSHING 60 IN MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ATTM. THE DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WAS INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS
KEEPING CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS OBSERVED
UPSTREAM WHERE THE AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST AND THE FACT THAT THE
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT SYM...JKL...LOZ AND SME AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF SJS...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE CIGS AND VIS IN THE
VFR RANGE JUST ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR BREAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST 3
TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO SOME
HIGH BASED FLAT CU 12 THROUGH AROUND 17Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT
ALTOGETHER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF THE PERIOD OR SO WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
SHIFTS TO WEST IN SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BETWEEN ABOUT 9Z AND 12Z...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AT ALL OF THESE DIRECTIONS UPWARDS OF 10KT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP



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