Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 061812 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
212 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

POPS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WERE
INCREASED BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1140 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

A COUPLE OF QUICK UPDATES HAVE BEEN DONE TO FINE TUNE THE HOURLY
GRIDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. POPS WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A SANDY HOOK TO
JACKSON TO HARLAN LINE FOR BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE...CU DEVELOPMENT AND TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS FOUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM THAT EASTERN LOW. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS...LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND CLOSER TO THE VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA BORDER. IN THE CLEARING TO THE WEST OF THE BORDER
AREAS...PATCHY FOG IS NOTED IN THE SOME OF THE OBSERVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS NOT FAR AWAY...WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A CONUS OMEGA BLOCK
SHIFTING EAST AND OPENING UP DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A DEEP
CLOSED LOW DESCENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING WILL PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EVENING BEFORE BEING PICKED
UP BY THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND DEPARTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY EVENING. IN ITS WAKE...RISING HEIGHTS AND RIDGING
WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW DESCENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...A MINOR WAVE WILL
SQUEEZE BY EASTERN KENTUCKY TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A STRONG LEAN
TOWARD THE HRRR EARLY ON AND THE NAM12 THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MILDER DAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNS AND THE COLD AIR DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT
TO SET UP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
AROUND...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THAT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTH TOWARD
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER SATURDAY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...OUR AREA
WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A QUICK MOVING SFC LOW AND AS A
RESULT COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH FAVORABLE PARAMETERS
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. SPECIFICALLY...CAPE WILL BE MODERATE WITH LOW
LIS AND VEERING/INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
FURTHER IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

USED THE SHORTBLEND/SUPERBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR MOST
ELEMENTS WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
AND SOME TERRAIN DIFFERENCES FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DID ADJUST
POPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE THE POPULATION SCHEME...IN THE EAST THROUGH
TODAY AND ALSO FOR THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM CONCERNS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA REGION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST INTO THE COMING WEEK. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SWING A
FEW SHORTWAVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE START
OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE...AS A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AS WELL WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE OPENS AND EJECTS EAST INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BY MID WEEK. FOLLOWING THIS...TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS ANOTHER
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER
THE OH VALLEY SHIFTING. OVERALL...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THOUGH
THE GFS IS A BIT MORE DRIER THAN THE EURO...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THE EXTENDED SEEMS QUITE WET AND ACTIVE. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY THE ALL MODEL BLEND AS WELL KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OF THE EXTENDED.

NEAR THE SURFACE HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SETS UP A
WARM FRONT INTO THE MIDWEST AND A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO
THE OH VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY BECOMES A FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN FACT...THE EURO MIGHT
SUGGEST AN MCS SET UP FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SEEM SUBSTANTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AT LEAST EARLY IN THE
SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSING ON MAX
HEATING. STRONG CAPPING HEADING INTO THE DAY MONDAY WOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION A BIT MORE AS THE MENTIONED BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. STILL
WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM OUT WEST SHIFTS EAST WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. STRONG CONVECTION SEEMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP GOOD
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HIGHLIGHT AN ACTIVE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

CU AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF JKL AND
NEAR SJS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW. VCSH
HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SJS AND JKL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BRIEF
MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE A DIRECT HIT FROM A
SHOWER. OTHERWISE...NORTHERLY WINDS AT NEAR 10KT WITH SOME GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 20KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET AT THE TAF SITES WITH
CU OR STRATOCU IN THE VFR RANGE. WINDS SHOULD THEN SLACKEN...ALTHOUGH
THEY COULD BECOME GUSTY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AROUND 15Z...MAINLY
AT SYM...LOZ...AND SME. VALLEY FOG SHOULD AGAIN FORM AND MAY
LIMIT VIS TO IFR RANGE BETWEEN 4Z AND 13Z IN SOME AREAS...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES. A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 8Z AND CIGS DOWN NEAR 5KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH A STRAY SHOWER. FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH...VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP



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