Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 020139
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
839 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THERE WERE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE UPPER AIR RELEASE THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z SOUNDING DEPICTED A DRY LAYER FROM NEAR THE SURFACE UP TO
650 MB...AND THEN A SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED LAYER FROM 650
MB...WHICH IS NEAR THE FREEZING LEVEL...UP TO NEARLY 200 MB. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WAS 1.39 INCHES. SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS
OBSERVED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 850 MB...THEN GENERALLY WESTERLY
WINDS WERE OCCURRING ABOVE THAT LEVEL. WEST WINDS OF 120 KNOTS
WERE NOTED NEAR 175 AND 150 MB. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...
THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY TODAYS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
WAS HEAVIEST IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE LATE TONIGHT AS AN ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLET APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SO WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH VALID
THROUGH MONDAY AND HAVE EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE ALL OF COASTAL
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

LONG TERM...
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD START TO ABATE MONDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS LAND THUNDESTORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
COASTAL AREAS SOUTH OF THE HOUMAM...BOOTHVILLE LINE. EXPECT
CEILINGS BLOW 1000 FEET AND VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 MILES MAINLY NEAR
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE INLAND TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET AND CEILINGS AROUND
8000 FEET WITH VISIBILITY AROUND 6 MILES.

MARINE...
AWAY FROM AREAS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WINDS SHOULD
BE SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE AND 1
TO 2 FEET IN PROTECTED WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO
NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND INCREASE 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MINOR RIVER FLOODING. RADAR SUPPORT.
MONITORING FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  76  62  75 /  60  70  40  40
BTR  70  78  64  77 /  60  70  50  40
ASD  71  79  67  78 /  60  70  50  40
MSY  73  80  68  78 /  60  70  50  50
GPT  73  78  68  78 /  60  70  60  50
PQL  70  78  68  78 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$


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