Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 220857
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
357 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...Well it was quiet the active night in the extreme
northwest portions of the CWA. Rich Gulf moisture streamed into the
area and continues to do so. This along with increasing lift aloft
and LL convergence led to storms being rather persistent in that
region and thus leading to localized flash flooding. This activity
has really held on through much of the overnight hours do to
increased divergence aloft but and we very well could see it hold
on through the early morning hours as the main line of convection
approaches later this morning. Additional showers and embedded
thunderstorms continue to develop and pulse up and down as they
move in from the Gulf.

Today and into tonight activity should really pick up across the
entire CWA. A squall line is surging through the ARKLATEX and should
be moving into portions of southwest and central LA around sunrise.
S/W continues to deepen and should close off as it moves into AR
today with the neutrally tilted trough axis stretching south across
the LA/TX border. This trough will swing through overnight and
have on a negative tilt as it moves into eastern MS. The
associated cold front will also move through overnight and should
be east of the region early Monday morning. As for the convection,
much of the activity will likely be associated with a pre-frontal
trough and should accelerate east today and especially overnight
as the trough sharpens up and becomes negatively tilted overnight.
Like previous forecaster discussed the line of storms will likely
be moving into western portions of the CWA around mid morning and
likely approach the north and south shores around midday/early
afternoon and then into eastern MS late afternoon/early evening.
There may be some lingering showers behind the main line but
expect to see things quickly taper off behind the main surge of
storms with locations in our northwest likely rain free this
evening.

As for the strong to severe aspect, SPC has put the area in a
marginal risk. The dynamics are there with a strong s/w and mid
level winds responding to around 45-50 kts. Height falls of
around 8 dm from later this morning through today will occur. As
for instability, things may be a little better with mid level
lapse rates likely around 6.5-6.8 C/km, showalters of -2 to -3,
and MLCape around 1200-1700 j/kg. LL shear will not be impressive
and likely around 100 m2/s2 or lower (both 0-1 and 0-3km) however
0-6km bulk shear will be adequate, around 35-45 kts. Obviously
there is enough to help spark a few potent storms but not
expecting much more than strong with isolated pockets of severe
within the line.

The other issue is the flash flood potential. Generally would not
expect too much in the way of problems as the line of storms should
be quite progressive today. However, given that a few locations saw
6-8 inches of rain last night along with isolated flash flooding
in some areas, it may not take a lot of rain to lead to issues
once again. With that we have extended the flash flood watch in
time and expanded it to include a few southwest MS counties and a
few more LA parishes. /CAB/

.LONG TERM...Still looking good for a much cooler and drier forecast
from Monday through Thursday morning. Cooler and drier air will
move in behind the cold front tonight and we should all feel it
Monday. A second much stronger cold front will drop through the
region Tuesday night and this will bring about the coldest temps
of the season so far. Strong cold air advection Tuesday night will
lead to much of the region dropping into the 40s. Highs on
Wednesday will only get into the mid to upper 60s and then another
rather cool night is expected Wednesday night with lows in the
40s once again over a good chunk of the area.

The pattern becomes more zonal and then southwesterly Thursday and
into the weekend. This will lead to temps moderating as early as
Thursday and then a return of rain more likely this weekend. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
Convection is expected to be the primary impact on the
terminals during this TAF forecast period. The greatest threat for
convection will be from the late morning through the afternoon as
convection advances from west to east across the forecast area.
Otherwise, generally VFR to occasional MVFR ceilings are expected
outside of areas of convection during the period. Winds will shift
to the northwest this evening and overnight as a cold front moves
across the area. 11

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to strong east-southeast to southeast winds will
gradually ease across the coastal waters today. As a result, the
Small Craft Advisory in effect for areas east of the
Mississippi River will be allowed to expire at 7 am CDT
today. Exercise caution conditions are then expected through mid day
for the open coastal waters east of the Mississippi River. A cold
front will move through the coastal waters tonight into
early Monday. Moderate to strong offshore flow will develop in the
wake of this front that will persist through the middle of the
work week. 11

&&

DSS code: Yellow.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Marginal risk of severe weather today and tonight.
            Flash Flood watch today for sections of east central
            Louisiana and extreme southwest Mississippi.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
         visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
         advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red =    Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct
         tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  77  57  72  52 / 100  40  10   0
BTR  79  57  74  53 / 100  40  10   0
ASD  80  61  75  52 / 100  60  10   0
MSY  81  63  74  59 / 100  50  10   0
GPT  79  63  75  57 / 100  80  10   0
PQL  80  64  75  53 / 100  90  20   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for LAZ034>036-046-047.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ555-557-
     575-577.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for MSZ068-069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ557-575-
     577.

&&

$$



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