Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 270125
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
825 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

00Z KLIX sounding revealed a moderately unstable profile with near
seasonal precipitable water of 1.4 inches. A subsidence inversion
from 850mb up to about 775mb is also where the atmosphere really
dries out in the mid levels. The subsidence and dry air inhibited
deeper convective updrafts during peak heating today. Low level
winds were southeast to south 10-18kt, veering to fairly light
westerly in the mid levels, then mostly northwest in the upper
levels with a peak only around 40kt.

TD
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...Not as warm today but still quite humid with heat
index readings topping out in the lower 90s in a few locations. It
has been rain free today and now we are starting to get some cirrus
canopy from storms that have been on going over TX.

Through this weekend not much has changed in the thinking with
respect to the forecast. Still could see a few storms push into our
far northwest late this aftn and early this evng as the disturbance
over eastern TX continues to lift northeast eroding the western
portions of the ridge. Over the next few days the ridge over the
southeastern CONUS will slowly build back over the region with very
slim rain chances each day and most likely rain free. Afternoon
highs will slowly climb over the next few days with upper 80s to
lower 90s expected across much of the region Sunday. Heat Index
readings in the mid 90s is not out of the question. As for morning
lows dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s leading to
near normal to slightly above normal lows each morning. /CAB/

LONG TERM...Overall the medium range models are in good agreement
with a mostly benign and warm forecast in store. As previous
forecaster mentioned there are some indications that a weak
disturbance will try to ride over the ridge...eroding the eastern
periphery and possibly leading to slightly better rain chances
Monday afternoon, maybe scattered afternoon storms. This is very
short lived as the ridge builds back in with a force for the middle
and latter portions of the work week. This will lead to the region
warming up again with lower 90s expected. /CAB/

AVIATION...

Expect scattered clouds around 3500 feet and visibility around 6
miles. Some broken clouds at or below 1000 feet and visibility 3 to
5 miles in fog may form mainly at KBTR and KCMB from 09 to 14 UTC
with conditions improving to scattered to broken clouds 1500 to 2500
feet and visibility around 6 miles by 1500 UTC.

MARINE...

High pressure will continue to dominate the flow over the coastal
waters through the rest of the week. Winds will be mostly southeast
10 to 15 knots through the weekend with seas generally two to three
feet. With the center of the high developing over the coastal waters
Monday and Tuesday winds will be light and variable and seas 1 to 2
feet.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  86  69  87 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  73  87  70  88 /  20  20  10  10
ASD  72  86  71  85 /  10  10   0  10
MSY  74  86  73  85 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  74  84  73  83 /  10   0   0  10
PQL  72  85  70  83 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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