Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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897
FXUS64 KLIX 292055
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
355 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the area
this afternoon. As usual they should taper off after 8 PM this
evening. An upper low is currently moving inland over east Texas
and this was the trigger for some of this rain we are seeing this
afternoon. These storms will contain brief heavy downpours and
frequent lightning. Going into tomorrow not much change in the
forecast as rainfall chances remain fairly low...only about a 20
to 30 percent chance. We will continue to watch TD 9 in the Gulf
of Mexico. There have not been any changes to the forecast this
afternoon. At the moment there are no real big impacts from this
system as it is expected to curve back east toward Florida this
week. The only thing right now that we may see in respect to this
system is the chance for some higher than normal tides and for
that reason a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued starting Tuesday
evening. Tides are already currently running about 1-1.5 ft above
normal and with persistent moderate possibly strong easterly flow
for the next 48-72 hrs water will continue to pile up. This is
something for us to watch especially if TD 9 decides to push a bit
more west before it makes its turn. But the overall for forecast
for the short term is afternoon showers and storms and warm
temperatures through most of the week. 13/MH

.LONG TERM...
The long range will be mainly watching TD 9 or Tropical Storm
Hermine or Ian whichever one it becomes pull eastward. We expect
to see the upper flow over the area gain much more of a northerly
component. This will bring drier air into the area, and should
significantly limit convective development across the area for at
least Thursday and Friday. I have dropped the chances of rain some
in the long range to reflect this. Temperatures will warm into
the mid 90s. Medium range models still hint at a weak frontal
boundary in the area for Saturday into Labor Day. Will carry some
chance of rain and slightly lower temperatures for those days.
13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Convection still the main issue but should quickly be a non issue
this evening. Other than that look for vfr conditions to continue
through the forecast. Winds may lighten over much of the region
overnight but look for easterly winds to pick back up tomorrow.
/CAB/

&&

.MARINE...
Persistence will continue with a moderate easterly wind through
the first half of the week. Winds in the outer waters continue to
be around 15-20kts. The fcst is tricky come Wednesday and through
the rest of the work week depending on evolution of TD9. Seas will
likely be rough through much of the weak as a swell develops eventually
and moves in this direction along with a seas around 5-6 ft possibly
higher. If TD9 deviates any more west than the current fcst winds
and seas will have a greater impact. The other issue is tides.
They are already currently running about 1-1.5 ft abv normal and
with persistent moderate possibly strong easterly flow for the
next 48-72 hrs water will continue to pile up, thanks to TD9.
Tides could run over 2 ft abv normal and with that we have decide
to issue a Coastal Flood watch for Tue night through Wed night.
/CAB/

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Flood recovery support
            Coastal Flood Watch
            TD9

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
BTR  73  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
ASD  75  93  75  94 /  10  20  10  10
MSY  78  92  78  92 /  10  20  10  20
GPT  76  92  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
PQL  76  93  76  93 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday
     morning for LAZ040-050-058-060>062-064-069-070-072.

GM...None.
MS...Coastal Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday
     morning for MSZ080>082.

GM...None.
&&

$$



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