Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 010817

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2015

A cold front was entering west central KY as of 230 am this morning.
The final round of steady light to moderate rain was pushing NE just
ahead of the front into our region mainly along and west of I-65.
Expect this area of rain to continue through the pre-dawn hrs
finally moving out around sunrise.  An additional 0.5 to 1 inch of
rainfall can be expected with this round of steady rain.  This
amount of rainfall combined with the fact that most areas saw a
break in the rainfall a few hrs ago should result in little if any
minor flooding issues this morning.  The Lake Cumberland region may
see one more enhanced area of rainfall after sunrise so will still
keep a close eye on that region for any minor flooding issues.  The
moderate steady rains should be done before the rush hour traffic
hits in the metro areas so that will be good for travelers this
morning.  Also, most of the fog in the area should diminish by
around sunrise also.

The cold front will push through the area this morning with the end
of the rainfall lagging behind it by an hr or two.  So most
locations along and west of I-65 will be dry by early afternoon.
East of I-65, precip should end by late afternoon or early evening.

Expect high temps to be reached early in the day with highs ranging
from the lower 50s to lower 60s.  Temps will fall throughout the
day behind the fropa into the lower 50s/upper 40s.

For tonight, expect a mainly dry night with variable sky cover. Some
areas will see only partly cloudy skies before thick low level
clouds arrive with an upper trough.  The variable cloud cover will
provide a temp challenge.  Will forecast lows in the lower 30s/mid
40s with a good gradient across central KY that may need to be
adjusted.  Also patchy fog may form in some areas tonight.

Wed will be chilly and breezy with highs in the mid 40s/lower 50s
and low clouds hanging around.  A vorticity max swinging through the
base of the upper level trough combined with a thick moisture layer
in low levels should be enough to produce some sprinkles late Wed
afternoon/early evening.  After 0Z, soundings indicate that the
moisture layer will be deep enough to produce ice crystals leading
to some flurries mixing in with the sprinkles and maybe just some
flurries later in the evening.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2015

Wed night - Sunday...

After some light sprinkles or flurries early Wed night, the rest of
the overnight period should be dry with lows dipping into the lower

A dry period is in store for the rest of the week and into early
next week as we enter a blocking pattern aloft and maintain high
pressure at the sfc.  Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies Thu-
Sun.  Thu will be the coldest day in the long term with highs in the
mid to upper 40s. Highs will moderate into the lower 50s by the
weekend.  Lows will generally be in the upper 20s to lower 30s Thu-


Long range models don`t have a real good handle on how the upper
level pattern will evolve next week.  There seems to be an upper low
progged to push across south central U.S. some time early next week
but models vary great on track/timing/precip.  Thus, will only keep
a very low POP going Monday/Mon night.  Will continue forecast temps
slightly above normal Mon as well.  However, this forecast is low
confidence at this point given the model spread.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1201 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2015

Main challenges are low ceilings and visibility restrictions at all
TAF sites through the morning hours as a couple waves of steady rain
lift into the region. Ceilings have bounced between LIFR to MVFR
over the past few hours, especially as the surface warm front has
lifted northward. Between waves of rain, ceilings will likely fall
to IFR at times through 12z.

Plan on visibilities to vary from 2 to 4 miles with the rain,
improving mid-morning onward as precipitation begins to wane.
Moisture will remain trapped in the low-levels, keeping low ceilings
in place through the early/mid afternoon. Eventually the westerly
winds will advect enough dry air to erode that layer with some
improvement/lifting of the clouds. Heading into Tuesday night, if
clouds clear and winds go light, then fog may be an issue at BWG/LEX.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
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