Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 270545
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
145 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016
Upper ridging continues to spin over the southeast United States.
satellite and radar loops show a textbook ring of fire pattern with
clouds and storms flowing around the periphery of the ridge. With
the center of the ridging over Virginia and North Carolina, the LMK
CWA sits on the edge of the ridge, just enough into it to squelch
most convection. As a result, this evening should be dry with the
possible exception of a stray storm far west. Some of the
aforementioned thunderstorm activity, currently over the middle and
lower Mississippi Valley, may slip into the west/northwest sections
of the region late tonight.
Saturday will be more of the same with hot and humid weather and a
small chance of pop-up storms, especially in the heat of the day,
especially north and west once again. Afternoon heat index readings
will approach 100. We`ll get little relief Saturday night with muggy
conditions and the mercury only dropping into the lower and middle
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016
The upper high will remain in place through Monday, then get
suppressed early next week as a large upper trof swings through
southeast Canada. This may help to lower temperatures a couple of
degrees, and will continue the daily chances of scattered primarily
diurnal thunderstorms. No significant surface fronts to hang one`s
hat on, and we`ll have to see what happens with the tropical
disturbance currently over the Bahamas too.
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016
Mesoscale convective system (MCS) over western KY is moving north at
this time, sending dense cirrus clouds NNE into BWG and SDF. The MCS
also has caused a low-level outflow boundary to push NE across BWG,
causing their wind to go from calm or light NE to light W to SW. The
wind should again become calm overnight, but the boundary may help
keep fog from becoming an issue at BWG toward daybreak, although
still could see some MVFR vsbys at times. Vsbys around daybreak
should remain VFR at SDF and LEX.
During the day Saturday, high clouds will gradually dissipate as the
overnight MCS weakens. The area will still be under the influence of
a large ridge of high pressure aloft as surface winds become SE and
then S from 5-8 kt. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm at BWG
and SDF (probably not LEX) during the late afternoon and early
evening, but coverage expected to be low so no inclusion of VCTS at
the TAF sites at this time. Thus, conditions will remain VFR with
scattered cumulus clouds around 4-5 kft during the afternoon.