Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS63 KLOT 300312
AFDLOT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1012 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
842 PM CDT

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...I HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT THROUGH THE
EVENING TO GO WITH LOW END CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-55. IT APPEARS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HIGHER COVERAGE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS WILL BE EAST OF I-55. LATER TONIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
WITH THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SOME POSSIBLE
STORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...NOW SHIFTING ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA. THE 00 UTC SOUNDINGS AT BOTH KILX AND KDVN INDICATE
POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA...AND HENCE MINIMAL
MUCAPE. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THE OVERALL THUNDER THREAT WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT.

NO REAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE BEYOND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE
SOME CONCERNS FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE AREA AS STOUT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS
INDUCES A LOWER LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN A BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY INDUCED
RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR EVEN ABOVE THE 00UTC RAOB VALUE OF 1.69 INCHES
AT KILX...HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY A CONCERN. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY STABLE...SO THE POTENTIAL OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
APPEARS TO BE LOWER GIVEN THE LACK OF BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND MY EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS COUNTIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE WARM SECTOR AND HENCE
WITHIN THE AREA OF BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THEREFORE...IT
APPEARS THAT THESE AREAS COULD HAVE A HIGHER THREAT FOR SOME HEAVY
RAIN RATES GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE.
OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE SOME GOOD AMOUNTS
OF RAIN IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
WITH THIS IN MIND...QPF AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF THE 00 UTC
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE TURNING MUCH COLDER AND WINDY DURING THE DAY
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

KJB

&&

.SHORT TERM...
248 PM CDT

THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

MESSY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
REGION FALLS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
UNCAPPED MODEST INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING TONIGHT THOUGH FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK RESULTING IN
UNFOCUSED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE WEAK IN THE 5-6 C/KM RANGE OVERNIGHT SO
DONT SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH
EARLY OVERNIGHT...AND SEVERE THREAT IS FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH AN
ISOLATED WET MICROBURST BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. THE COMBINATION OF
POOR LAPSE RATES...INCREASING MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY HIGH MELTING
LEVELS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT DESPITE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING.

SYNOPTICALLY...WE ARE NOT UNDER A FAVORABLE AREA OF FORCING MOST
OF THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS HOWEVER MODELS DO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. UNDERCUT MODEL POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS LEAVING ABOUT A 30-40 POP CWA-
WIDE...THINKING A LOT OF THE MODEL VORTICITY THAT IS GENERATED IS
A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. A MORE ROBUST UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS
PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO DO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR THE IL/WI STATE-LINE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING. BUMPED UP LOWS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH A
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON. NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE EARLY MORNING
HIGHS THEN TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. 30 KT WINDS COMING DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER A MOSTLY STABLE LAKE MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN THE WARMER NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BLEED INLAND...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH
EXPECTED FARTHER INLAND. STRONG WINDS AND THE ONSHORE COMPONENT
WILL DRIVE WAVES INTO THE 8 TO 12 FOOT RANGE SO THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING ALONG THE BIKE PATH IN CHICAGO AND OTHER
TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH END OF THE LAKE
MAINLY EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

INSTABILITY DOES HAVE A LITTLE TIME TO BUILD IN THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS TO HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY MID MORNING...SO
THERE MAY BE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES
BEHIND THE FRONT AND SOME MODELS /ESPECIALLY GFS/ SHOW A STABLE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WITH RAIN CONTINUING BEHIND THE
FRONT AS AN F-GEN BAND DEVELOPS. EXPECT A LOT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S BY MID TO LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND
SITES ALONG THE LAKE EXPERIENCING WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...ONLY TWO DAYS BEFORE METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER BEGINS.

DEUBELBEISS

&&

.LONG TERM...
303 PM CDT

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP SHOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CHILLIEST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BE SUNDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR
GRADUALLY MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AGAIN BY END OF NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING TEMPS TO RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS.
PROMINENT/STRONG LAKE ENHANCED NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY MORE TYPICAL LAKE BREEZES NEXT WEEK...WITH LAKE
INFLUENCE LESSENING BY THE DAY AS GRADIENT TURNS MORE SOUTHERNLY
WITH TIME.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* WIND SHIFT TO STRONG/GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY MORNING
  AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

* IFR CIGS/POSSIBLY LIFR/ DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING.

* PERIODS OF RAIN AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
  THE AFTERNOON...IMPROVING LATE IN THE DAY.

RATZER

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF ORD/MDW WITH A DISTURBANCE TRACKING FROM
CENTRAL IL NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. ANOTHER SMALLER AREA
OF LESS NUMEROUS SHRA CURRENTLY NEAR KRFD WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF
CHICAGO AREA. WHILE ISOLATED SHRA MAY OCCUR AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME
TONIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT MORE ORGANIZED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...AND WHILE SOME ISOLATED OR EMBEDDED TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN POINT TAF FORECASTS. RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
INDICATES CIGS DETERIORATING TO IFR OR PERHAPS EVEN LIFR SATURDAY
MORNING AS RAIN PERSISTS IN COOLER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR
TOWARD EVENING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL GUST 15-20 KT
THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SATURDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE SHARP WIND SHIFT TO NORTHEAST...WITH
WINDS BECOMING STRONG/GUSTY DURING THE DAY. GUSTS NEAR 30 KT
POSSIBLE...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING.

RATZER

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* MEDIUM IN TIMING OF SHRA TRENDS OVERNIGHT...BUT HIGH IN PERIODS
  OF RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

* HIGH IN IFR CIGS DEVELOPING SATURDAY MORNING...MEDIUM IN TIMING
  LOW IN LIFR.

* HIGH IN WIND SHIFT TO STRONG NORTH-NORTHEAST...MEDIUM IN TIMING.

RATZER

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS.

TUESDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS.

THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS.

RATZER

&&

.MARINE...
253 PM CDT

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. IMPRESSIVE SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WILL COME SURGING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE LAKE. GRADIENT SUPPORTS
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THERMALLY STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN VERY
SHALLOW MIXING AND PROBABLY NO SIGNIFICANT GUSTS...THOUGH SOME OF
THE ANEMOMETERS ON THE TALLER SHIPS COULD SEE GALES FOR A TIME
SATURDAY. FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND IN PARTICULAR THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER WITH LAKE SURFACE TEMPS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER
30S OVER THE OPEN LAKE AND THAT WILL HELP MODIFY THE AIR TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE 40S...WHICH THEN WILL GET ADVECTED OVER TOP THE
RELATIVELY WARM NEAR SHORE AND FAR SOUTHERN LAKE WATER AND RESULT
IN BETTER MIXING AND MUCH GREATER CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS. HAVE
HOISTED A GALE WARNING FOR AREAS WITH WARMER WATER
TEMPS...INCLUDING NEARSHORE AND FAR SOUTHERN OPEN LAKE ZONES.
WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THOUGH REMAIN
MODERATELY BRISK.

IZZI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...ILZ006-ILZ014...1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM
     SUNDAY.

IN...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY...INZ001-INZ002...1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM
     SUNDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
     LMZ779...9 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM SATURDAY.

&&

$$

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