Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 282006
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
105 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE SANTA BARBARA AREA. A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROF
PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW. THIS SHOULD BRING A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING,
MAINLY TO COASTAL AREAS FRI/SAT (EXCEPT SBA) BUT STILL 3-6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE INTERIOR. MARINE LYR CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MAKE A
RETURN TO SRN LA COUNTY AS WELL, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING BUT
BETTER CHANCE SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL COAST
TONIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLEARING TO NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE BEACHES EACH DAY.

SUNDOWNER WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SBA AREA NEXT FEW EVENINGS, PEAKING
FRI/SAT. TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH ISOLATED WINDS
AROUND 35 MPH FOR WESTERN CANYONS/PASSES. 5-10 MPH STRONGER AND A
LITTLE LATE FRI/SAT AND A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SO A LOW END
ADVISORY LIKELY THEN. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE SBA AREA
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS LOCALLY TOPPING 90.

INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD PUSH THE COOLING TREND WELL
INLAND BRINGING HIGHS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS. MARINE LYR
WILL BE SPREADING FURTHER NORTH INTO VENTURA AND POSSIBLY SERN SBA
COUNTY AS NW FLOW WEAKENS ACROSS SRN SBA COUNTY.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...A WEAK TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST COAST
MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, HAVE TRENDED
WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW RUNS. IF CURRENT MODELS HOLD
THEN OUR COOLING TREND WILL LIKELY LEVEL OFF SUNDAY OR MONDAY WITH
MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE TROF
LATER IN THE WEEK WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING THU/FRI. DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MONSOON FLOW WELL EAST ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST WILL PERSIST. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT TO MODERATE
WEST WINDS WILL PERSIST WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT NORTH AFTER 29/14Z. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITH THE BASE
APPROXIMATELY 1.2KFT ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TO .1KFT OVER THE
BIGHT. THE CLOUD FIELD WAS LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
MORNING. THE CLOUD FIELD MAY BECOME ISOLATED OVER THE BIGHT AND THE
INVERSION BASE MAY DIFFER BY PLUS .5KFT. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 30/02Z AND AFTER 30/19Z OTHERWISE A WEAK
TO MODERATE NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LIKELY EXIST AFTER 30/02Z.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 004 BETWEEN 29/13-29/17Z.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIMITED TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXPAND EACH
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE GALES WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLAND SAT NIGHT AND SUN. MARIE`S
SWELL EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY AND THEN LINGER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SMALL SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE A LOCALLY
GENERATED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TO POSSIBLY TO 10 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION FRIDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...28/200 PM...

THE SURF WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT THE RISK OF STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG ALL EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. THE
SURF WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW HIGH SURF THRESHOLDS THIS EVENING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ZEALAND YESTERDAY AND TODAY
WITH STORM FORCE WINDS HAD GENERATED SEAS OVER 40 FEET IN AN AREA
BETWEEN 200-215 DEGREES RELATIVE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE SWELLS
FROM THE STORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...MW

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