Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 300558
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1058 PM PDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The cut-off low pressure system over Southern California will
support the slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and
early evening across the mountains and Antelope Valley. High
pressure aloft will build into the area by the middle of next
week, supporting much warmer conditions that may persist into next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)

Nearly all shower and thunderstorm activity has dissipated
this evening. Low clouds lingered through the day across
coastal sections of southern Sba County, and have already
surged into the Central Coast and into coastal sections of
Vtu county this evening. Expect clouds to overspread coastal
areas and push into the valleys before midnight. The marine
layer was deep enough to allow clouds to push into coastal
slopes overnight.

The upper low just east of the region will continue to move
eastward overnight and Monday. Heights will begin to rise across
the forecast area on Monday, and the marine layer should being
to become more shallow. Gradients will be less strongly onshore
on Monday as well. This should allow for better and faster
clearing in all areas on Monday, although clouds could still
linger into the afternoon at some beaches. There should be
a few degrees of warming on Monday, especially in the valleys,
mountains and deserts.

***From previous discussion***

Tuesday through Wednesday, the upper level ridge of high pressure
will continue to slowly slide eastward and become more centered
across California, resulting in a continued warming trend, along
with a shrinking marine layer.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the week for many areas as
thickness values peak. Warmest valleys expected to climb to around
90 degrees, with Antelope Valley climbing to around 100 degrees.
A shallow marine layer will continue to keep coastal low clouds
and fog. Friday through Sunday, 12z GFS and ECMWF models showing
another cutoff low developing off the Southern California coast,
with cross sections showing a good surge of mid and upper level
clouds. With this type of pattern, not out of the question that
we could see some showers or mountain tstms develop across the
forecast area sometime during this period, but probability at this
time is still around 10 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z...

At 05Z at KLAX... the inversion was about 1300 feet deep. The top
was near 4850 feet with a temperature of eighteen degrees Celsius.

OVERALL... Moderate to high confidence in the 06Z TAFS. The
slightly reduced confidence is due to the general uncertainty in
marine incursion behavior and because the category changes and
ceiling/clearing times may be off by +/- 2 hours. Some locales may
not fully clear prior to the marine incursion returning tomorrow
evening. Otherwise and elsewhere VFR conditions are expected.

KLAX... Moderate to high confidence in the 06Z TAF. The slightly
reduced confidence is due to the general uncertainty in marine
incursion behavior and because the category changes and
ceiling/clearing times may be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a
fifteen percent chance that MVFR conditions will not clear
tomorrow.

KBUR... moderate to high confidence in the 06Z TAF. The slightly
reduced confidence is due to the general uncertainty in marine
incursion behavior and because the category changes and
ceiling/clearing times may be off by +/- 2 hours. There is a ten
percent chance that MVFR conditions will not clear tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...29/830 PM...

Small craft advisory conditions are not expected through
Friday. Otherwise a Catalina eddy is expected to develop each
night over the bight through Thursday and northwest winds are
expected elsewhere and will fill in the bight each afternoon.

A complex of storm systems south of the equator will create a
southerly swell of around 5 ft and a longer period swell across
the local waters by next Wednesday. The swells will remain below
small craft advisory for hazardous sea conditions but there will
be extra surging and currents along exposed south facing shores.
In the meantime a mixed small south swell and locally generated
northwest swell continue.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&
$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/DB
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...CK
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles



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