Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 272026
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
126 PM PDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft over the region will weaken over the next
several days as an upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest
brushes the area. A cooling trend will develop as onshore flow
strengthens and night through morning low clouds return to the
beaches and possibly to the valleys through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-FRI)

Temperatures starting to return back to normal today and should be
there by Wednesday if not today. The upper ridge is breaking down
today as a trough moves into the Pac NW. This is shifting
gradient trends to onshore which will last through Wednesday. We
will get a brief ridge over the area Thursday into Friday that
will temporarily weaken the onshore flow and warm things up a few
degrees, but nothing close to what we had across the inland areas
over the the last week and especially Monday.

Marine lyr expected to fill in along most coastal and many valley
areas tonight as an eddy spins up. Then similar coverage Thursday
morning.

Another weak Sundowner expected tonight across southern SB County.
Like the last few nights we`ll see some local gusts to around 40
up in the foothill areas but overall a sub-advisory level event.
North winds will be weaker the next couple nights.

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)

The Thu/Fri ridge will get knocked down by another Pac NW trough
this weekend leading to a cooling trend and a deeper marine lyr.
Temps likely falling back down to normal levels. Low clouds will
clear off in most areas but could linger at the beaches well into
the afternoon. No major changes in this pattern through early next
week so look for minimal day to day changes in cloud coverage and
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1730Z.

At 17z at KLAX...There was a 500 ft marine layer. The inversion
top was 3500 ft with a temperature of 27 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in VFR conditions everywhere through 02Z today
after KSMX clears. Moderate confidence in deeper and more
expansive marine layer tonight into Wednesday. 99 percent chance
of IFR CIG at KSMX tonight, 80 percent chance at KSBP KSMO KLAX
KLGB, 60 percent chance at KPRB KOXR KCMA KBUR KVNY, 40 percent
chance at KSBA. Moderate confidence in TAF timing +/- 3 hours.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR conditions through 03Z. 80 percent
chance of IFR CIGS arriving 06-10Z, likely pushing above 010
sometime after 15Z. Clearing may be late (19-22Z). Catalina Eddy
expected Wednesday morning, with SE winds likely 05-08KT at times.
10 percent chance of exceeding 10 KT.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through 06Z. West winds
highly unlikely. 60 percent chance of CIGS around 005 arriving
09-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...27/100 PM.

High confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions from the
Central Coast to San Nicolas Island through at least Friday, and
will extended the current SCA each day. Moderate confidence in
low-end SCA conditions over the Santa Barbara Channel this
afternoon and tonight. There will be lulls each morning within 10
miles from the coast.

Two distinct wave types will be observable over the waters, and a
short period (6-8 second) west swell and/or wind wave. The buoys
will likely highlight the long period swell at times, but the
short period swell will be most noticeable and will be highlighted
in the forecast. By the middle to end of the week, the short-
period west swell will dominate as the south swell fades.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(FRI-TUE)
No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...B/Hall

weather.gov/losangeles


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