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000
FXUS61 KLWX 080856
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED WELL OUT TO SEA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO DECOUPLE. THEREFORE...RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS LED TO CHILLY
CONDITIONS. MIN TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
20S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S
IN DOWNTOWN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DROP SOUTH AND
EAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS. THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW
COMBINED WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL CAUSE MUCH MILDER CONDITIONS TODAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING RECENTLY. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE...TO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 50S IN WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
60S IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT AND MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE
DRY SINCE LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. THERE
WILL MORE SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DUE TO AN
UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO
CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE LATE SAT WILL BE ANOTHER
RELATIVELY WARM DAY ON SUNDAY. DRY AND BREEZY NW WINDS WILL DO THEIR
PART TO CUT DOWN ON TEMPS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE U40S WILL BE AT
LEAST A COUPLE DEG BELOW AVG. NOT A POTENT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...SO
THE SUBSIDENCE REGION BEHIND IT WON`T BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES OVER A SEVERAL HR
PERIOD...AND WINDS WILL PEAK IN THE 15-25MPH RANGE DURING THE LATE
MRNG-AFTN HRS. A LITTLE BITE TO THE AIR W/ THESE WINDS AND
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE AVG. CONDITIONS
IN RECENT DAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THRU THE MID-LATE MRNG AND
PLENTY OF SUN WILL BE AROUND FOR THE AFTN HRS.

FAST UPPER FLOW WILL BE ORIENTED NW-SE BRINGING THE NEXT OF 3 UPPER
WAVES / CLIPPERS IN SUCCESSION. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SUN NIGHT...AND
THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BACK TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT MUCH BELOW THE L30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
INCLUDING THE SAT NIGHT UPPER WAVE...CLIPPER-AFTER-CLIPPER WILL
AGAIN BE A PART OF THE STORY BUT THE SUBSEQUENT FEATURES LOOK TO
PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND MAKE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL ONLY BRING SOME MID CLOUDS TO THE
NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY MONDAY. BUT THIS WAVE AND ANOTHER FAST
ON ITS HEELS WILL DO LITTLE TO PREVENT THE AREA FROM CRACKING THE 60
DEG MARK BOTH MON AND TUE. A LARGE SFC HIGH RESIDING OVER THE SRN
ATLC COAST WILL HELP PUSH WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE AREA.
WITH THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT FROM THE CLIPPERS PASSING BY TO OUR
NORTH...SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND USHER IN THIS WARMER AIRMASS AT
A FASTER RATE.

THOSE LOOKING-FORWARD TO SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD WILL GET AT LEAST
A COUPLE OF DAYS - MON AND TUE - BEFORE ANOTHER REMINDER THAT
CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY THIS TIME OF YEAR. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT
OF DIVERGENCE IN THE LONG RANGE DEPICTIONS OF THE WED LOW PRESSURE
PASSAGE. THE 00Z GFS HAS WASHED-OUT ITS EARLIER COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS NOW AN OPEN WAVE THAT MEETS UP
W/ A GULF COAST UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...OFF THE ATLC COAST. THE 00Z
EURO HANGS ONTO THE WRN SOLUTION...WHERE THE UPPER MIDWEST WAVE
MEETS UP W/ THE GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD AND PULLS-IN
SOME COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING PRECIP. EITHER
SOLUTION KEEPS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY MIX UP ACROSS THE
NWRN QUADRANT OF THE CWA EARLY WED - AND THEN AGAIN ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SYSTEM EARLY THU MRNG. LEANING TOWARD A PLAIN-RAIN PASSAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION W/ HIGHS IN THE 40S/L50S DURING AFTN.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A STEADY-GRADUAL WARM-UP INTO THE NEXT
WEEKEND - EACH DAY A FEW DEG WARMER THAN THE LAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE 2-3 DAY PERIOD BEFORE
THE NEXT LONGER-TERM PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
ENCOMPASS THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH TONIGHT.
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL APPROACH MVFR LEVELS DURING THIS
TIME AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD MORNING.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON SUN...W/ A PICK-UP IN NW WINDS THRU THE
DAYTIME HRS. HIGH PRESSURE MON AND TUE W/ DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MTNS ON TUE. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM`S PASSAGE ON WED WILL BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE
AREA...THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THU.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TODAY. DESPITE A DEEP MIXING LAYER...WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
CAPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLDER WATERS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST EARLY SUN...USHERING IN
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NW FOR THE DAYTIME HRS - W/ MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
UNTIL LATE AFTN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET THRU EARLY WED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON WED...BRINGING A PERIOD SCA GUSTS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ON THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN THE AREA`S WX AND
WINDS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.



&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-537>543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...BJL
SHORT TERM...GMS
LONG TERM...GMS
AVIATION...BJL/GMS
MARINE...BJL/GMS