Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KLWX 221833
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
233 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

A BNDRY STRETCHES FM IL/OH INTO THE NRN MID ATLC. THIS IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLD RW FM ALLEGANY TO ST. MARY`S CO`S. IF ANY
BRKS IN THE CLDS DVLP THESE COULD GROW TO TSTM LVL...BUT SVR THREAT
IS LIMITED. SHOWERS DO HV ENOUGH MVMNT THAT IT APPEARS THAT FLD
THREAT WL BE NEGLIBLE.

AFTN HIGH TEMPS WL TOP OUT IN LM80S. NOT A BIG DROP IN TEMPS
OVRNGT - XPCT LOWS TO BE IN MU60S W OF I-95...L70S E.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...

THE AIR MASS OVR THE MID ATLC WL RMN MOIST SAT...HENCE SKIES WL
AGN HV PLENTY OF CLDS W/ CHCS FOR RW IN THE MRNG THRU MIDDAY. HIGH
PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST WL BEGIN BLDG INTO THE MID ATLC DURG
THE AFTN. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME LTNG BUT NOT XPCTG A SVR THREAT.
SKIES COULD BEGIN CLRG IN NERN MD BY LATE AFTN.

LATE AUG HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE M80S. XPCT TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGS BLO THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SOUTHWARD MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH REINFORCING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEFORE THE FROPA ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND UPPER TROUGH ENERGY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY THE BLUE RIDGE AND POTOMAC HIGHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.
DRIER/COOLER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR
SUNDAY.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN DOMINATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY. POSITION OF UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP ANY
TROPICAL SYSTEM ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK AS
WELL.

RETURN FLOW SETS IN WITH TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THIS DEEPENING TROUGH DRAGS A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH FRIDAY
LOOKING TO BE BACK IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ATTM. DEEP-LAYER WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THIS COLD FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

CLDY CONDS XPCTD OVRNGT. WHILE THERE WL BE SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTN/EVE THE CLD CVR SHOULD ALSO HELP TO LIMIT FOG DVLPMNT.
AGN CLDY DURG FIRST PART OF SAT...BUT THEN CLRG FM THE N IN THE
AFTN AS HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE RGN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES TNGT/SAT. ISOLD TSTMS PSBL FOR
THE RMDR OF THE AFTN/EVE.

COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE BAY SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/AEB







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.