Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 021105
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
305 AM PST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
OREGON COAST THIS MORNING. SO FAR MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE COAST. RADAR SHOWS RETURNS INLAND OVER
JOSEPHINE...WESTERN JACKSON AND SISKIYOU COUNTY, BUT DEWPOINTS
STILL REMAIN LOW, SO SUSPECT LITTLE IF ANYTHING IS REACHING THE
GROUND. THE RAP KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIPIATION OFFSHORE, BUT IT
DOES SHOW SOME QPF WEST OF THE CASCADES. THE HRRR RADAR REFLECTIVITY
ALSO SHOWS LIGHT RETURNS IN THE SAME AREAS, BUT SUSPECT IT`S
SUGGESTING VIRGA. THEREFORE WE`LL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE WATERS AND COAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER INLAND
IN DOUGLAS...JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN JASCKSON COUNTY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IF ANY QPF.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A DRY AND MILD
PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER
RIDGE NEAR 140 W WILL SHIFT EAST AND STRENGTHEN THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GUIDANCE SUGGEST TEMPERATURES IN
MEDFORD COULD GET NEAR 70 DEGREES WHICH IS ABOUT 14 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMO. IT`S POSSIBLE IT COULD HAPPEN WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
ALOFT. MODELS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH THE GFS SHOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR 12C SATURDAY...13C
SUNDAY AND NEXT MONDAY. -PETRUCELLI


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/06Z TAF CYCLE...A FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN
TO THE COAST AND WESTERN UMPQUA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND
POSSIBLE MVFR VIS. THE FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN TO
OTHER AREAS OF THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT, BUT CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH MONDAY. -WRIGHT


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PST, MONDAY, 2 MAR, 2015...HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS THAT AREAS OF MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS
BEYOND 5 NM AND SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL BRING
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE PATTERN OF A THERMAL TROUGH
AT THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY
WITH NORTHERLY CHOP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD. /FB


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
     PST TUESDAY FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM PST TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 1 AM PST TUESDAY FOR
     PZZ376.

$$


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