Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FXUS66 KMFR 011540
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MARINE LAYER CLOUDS, OR THE LACK THEREOF, ALONG THE COAST, AND TO
FINE TUNE THE AREAS THAT CAN EXPECT SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE FIRES
IN SISKIYOU COUNTY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD, AND THERE
IS NO NEED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

TODAY, MAIN FOCUS OF EFFORTS WILL CENTER ON THE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS AND OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. FOR
MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 01/12Z TAF CYCLE...
COASTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING,
CLEARING THE FEW REMAINING AREAS OF MVFR TO VFR OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY. ELSEWHERE, CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE FROM
WILDFIRES IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. -BPN/FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 AM PDT MON 1 SEP 2014...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THIS MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE AREA SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND BEYOND 5 NM
FROM SHORE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST WITH
MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS DEVELOPING ON MONDAY. BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND COULD
REACH GALE FORCE WINDS AND VERY STEEP SEAS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
STRENGTHENS. /FB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 100 AM PDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...01/00Z NAM/GFS IN...AND SEPTEMBER HAS ARRIVED.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE MEDFORD CWA THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE
BLANCO. FIRES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LOT
OF SMOKE.

A BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE INTO
MONDAY THEN LEVEL OFF. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO ZONAL
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE...FLATTENING IT A BIT. EXPECT A THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE
COAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THIS INTERVAL...WITH WEAK
TO MODERATE OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY NEAR BROOKINGS WHERE IT WILL BE QUITE WARM MONDAY.

THAT SHORT WAVE WILL DIG A TROUGH AS IT MOVES ONSHORE TUESDAY.
MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE MEDFORD CWA
AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT WILL COOL A BIT ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AS THE THERMAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND
AND THE MARINE LAYER RETURNS. HIGHS OVER THE REST OF THE OREGON
WEST SIDE WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS MONDAY. MEANWHILE...IT
WILL WARM UP OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE EAST SIDE AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH MOVES OVER THAT AREA.

THE MAIN TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY...LEAVING A
WEAK RESIDUAL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AS IT DOES SO...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. INLAND
HIGHS WILL DROP AROUND 5 DEGREES WEST OF THE CASCADES...AND 5 TO
10 DEGREES EAST OF THE CASCADES. IT WILL STILL BE DRY.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS PATTERN USUALLY DICTATES THAT THERE
WILL BE A LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE EVENT AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE HERE.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND POOR RECOVERIES OVER THE RIDGES FROM THE CASCADES
WEST. INLAND HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 1-5 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE WEDNESDAY HIGHS...EXCEPT IN THE UMPQUA...WHERE HIGHS WILL
BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION FROM THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFD...FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. MODELS PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA
TOWARDS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THE FORECAST AREA CAN THEREFORE
EXPECT CONTINUING WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TERM. THERE MAY BE SOME
RELIEF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS MODELS ARE PRODUCING A STRONGER, AND
MORE IMPORTANTLY, WETTER SYSTEM ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH, SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
     FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

$$

BPN/JRS/FJB






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