Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 270959
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
259 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FROM MORE WARMING AS
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE NW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA
OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE CASCADES DOWN TO AROUND CRATER LAKE.
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR TO MODERATE ONLY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND THERE MAY INSTEAD BE TOWERING CUMULUS
OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS SE SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN HALF OF MODOC COUNTY WILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTH THE NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE
SLIGHT NEGATIVE VALUES OF THE LIFTED INDEX THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 90
AND LOWER 90S NOW LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN OREGON
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING MODERATE
INSTABILITY OVER MANY OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY
AREAS OF INSTABILITY EXPANDS TO COVER SW OREGON. WE WILL HAVE TO
PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS DEVELOPMENT AS BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY COULD BE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAYS.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A COOLING TREND WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH IFR
TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST ACROSS THE WESTERN UMPQUA
BASIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT TUESDAY 26 MAY 2015...LOW PRESSURE JUST
INLAND THIS EVENING WILL KEEP MODERATE NORTH WINDS AND STEEP, WIND
DRIVEN SEAS GOING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO WEAKEN, BUT
SEAS WILL REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED BETWEEN 130 WEST AND 140 WEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/BTL


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