Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 300930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
329 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...More rain is expected today across the breadth of
western Montana and central Idaho, with the most intense rainfall
occurring this morning. Showers will shift east through the
afternoon, alleviating the region from the most persistent and
heaviest of showers. Breezy winds will once again be a feature
this afternoon and evening.

If you were hoping for some sunshine by Wednesday, your chances
are best the further west from the Continental Divide you are.
Showers and the thickest cloud cover remain locked over the
terrain along the Divide through Thursday, with elevations 6500
feet and higher having the potential to pick up light snow
accumulations. Breezy winds and cool temperatures will make this a
raw period to be outdoors, so if you are planning on hunting or
recreating in the backcountry, please plan accordingly.

A ridge of high pressure will begin to strengthen along the west
coast Friday, bringing a warming trend to western Montana and
north central Idaho. Mornings however, will start off quite
chilly, possibly near or even below freezing in many valley
locations. One trend in forecast models over the last few runs is
towards a flatter ridge of high pressure for Friday into Saturday
than previously expected. This may result in continued cloud
cover and possibly even a few showers in the high terrain,
mainly over northwest Montana. Another result will be gusty west
winds area wide, both Friday and Saturday afternoon.

Beyond Saturday, there is some disagreement in the forecast
models, with one maintaining the high pressure ridge, while the
other transitions the region back into a cooler and showery
northwest flow aloft.


.AVIATION...Widespread showers are expected this morning across
western Montana and north central Idaho, resulting in low
ceilings and terrain obscurations. The most persistent rain is
expected across northwest Montana, including airfield KGPI. Shower
coverage is expected to decrease late this afternoon and tonight.
Winds are expected to become breezy from the west this afternoon
with gusts up to 30kts possible near ridge tops and 20kts in the



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