Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 280938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
338 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...Potential for pockets of frost tonight...
...Warming to seasonal normal temps later this week...

.DISCUSSION...Just a few lingering rain showers exist this morning
across western Montana, and they are minimal at best. Any
precipitation that hangs on through the morning is expected to
fully dissipate by this afternoon, giving way to drying conditions
across all of central Idaho and western Montana.

Given that skies will continue to clear throughout the day, any
clearing that takes place tonight will combine with the cooler-
than-normal airmass currently over us to produce pockets of frost.
Select low-lying valleys (especially those nestled along the
Continental Divide) will have the best chance of flirting with
the 32F degree mark. Take measures ahead of time if you have any
sensitive vegetation that could succumb to near-freezing temps

A flat ridge of high pressure will gradually amplify across the
western states late this week and lead to the hottest conditions
of the week occurring on Friday. But, given that this week is
normally the hottest week of the year, the expected readings of 2
to 5 degrees above normal are not all that exceptional.

Thereafter, models show a weak weather feature moving up the
Pacific coastline from California, which will help support a slow
increase of monsoonal moisture into the region. This could result
in the chance for thunderstorms starting as early as Saturday,
but the timing, location, precipitation chances, and intensity of
these potential storms remains highly challenging to forecast at
this time.

Beyond the weekend, long range forecast models are at odds with
each other between a reamplification of the ridge (hot with
thunderstorms) and the potential for a cooler, low pressure


.AVIATION...A few lingering rain showers will plague KMSO through
the early morning hours, but will give way to increasingly
pleasant and drier conditions across the breadth of the Northern
Rockies. Patchy fog may also be a feature this morning through
roughly 28/1600Z, but isn`t expected to create major aviation
impacts. Clear skies tonight will product pockets of frost in some
low-lying valleys, but otherwise...a calm flying forecast is in
store for the next 24 hours.



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