Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 310958

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
358 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...Today and Tuesday will see a return to drier
conditions across western Montana and north central Idaho as
westerly flow aloft sets up over the region. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees below normal for this time of year,
especially on Monday. Smoke may return across the region as fires
become more active in the afternoons, though the thickness of
smoke should be nowhere near as dense as seen during the end of
last week.

On Wednesday, a weather disturbance and cold front will move
through the Northern Rockies Region. This system will return cool,
breezy and showery weather to the region. North central Idaho
still looks like the most likely area to see measurable precipitation
on Wednesday afternoon/evening, extending into southwest Montana
Wednesday night.

Thursday: The cold front is expected to slowly track south across
southwest Montana and Lemhi County in the morning. While it does
this a fairly strong upper level wave will move across the area
causing a decent area of rainfall from central Idaho into Montana.
It could be quite a wet and raw morning for school kids at bus
stops. High temperatures will be between 10 and 15 degrees below
normal. This cooler and wet weather will be a huge change
especially those locations that are in the 70s Wednesday and then
struggle to hit 60 on Thursday. Gusty winds are possible
especially across Lemhi County closer to the front during the day.

Friday and beyond: Weather models begin to diverge greatly during
this period. One of the reasons for this variability has to do
with the central & eastern Tropical Pacific where there are three
separate hurricanes. These systems can definitely throw a wrench
into the jet stream patterns. For this forecast, we leaned towards
the ECMWF solution which keeps a deeper trough over the Pacific
Northwest. Confidence is average that there will be an above
normal chance for precipitation and below normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...A much quieter weather pattern is in store today as
drier westerly flow sets up over the region. Mid level clouds
this morning may cause some obscuration of the higher terrain, but
cloud cover is expected to thin this afternoon. Breezy westerly
winds up to 30 kts will exist today at ridge top locations,
though valleys will see much lighter winds, more in the 5-15 kts



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