Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 281115
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
415 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...Cold temperatures and wind chills are impacting the
region this morning. Temperatures overnight have been slow to
lower to their potential thanks to some overcast clouds and wind.
Nevertheless wind chills in much of Southwest Montana hover around
0 with single digits elsewhere. The upper low that was to bring
some light accumulating snow is a bit further south than
anticipated. Only a few light snow showers in Butte and Salmon
have occurred with not much expected the rest of the day.

Dry north/northwest flow will impact the region through Monday
morning. Temperatures will remain well below normal (10-20
degrees) with lows in the single digits and teens.

The next potential big impact comes Monday afternoon through
Tuesday morning as another shot of arctic air crosses the divide.
A stronger weather disturbance, supported with a northerly jet, is
associated with this system and will produce a band of snow in
western Montana with the best potential for significant
accumulations in along the mountains and valleys along the
continental divide. Lighter snow accumulations are expected in the
Flathead/Mission/Missoula valleys. Even an inch or two could be a
significant impact given the time of year and the dry road
surfaces. There is not a lot of confidence to put exact numbers on
snow amounts so stay tuned.

After this weather system, temperatures will gradually increase
to near normal by Wednesday and a potential for above normal
temperatures in the upper 40s or around 50 by late next week as
models are consistent showing more of a ridge development across
the west.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few morning showers may impact KBTM and KSMN early this morning
as a weak weather disturbance moves south of the region. East to
Northeast winds will be gusty at times especially at KGPI and
KMSO through the morning. Winds are expected to gradually decrease
throughout the afternoon.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Potomac/Seeley
     Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 11 AM MST this morning Eastern
     Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

&&

$$




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