Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 270145
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
945 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda High pressure will remain across the region through the
weekend. A cold front will pass through the area Monday into
Tuesday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Radar mosaic showing the inversion developing throughout the nern
conus. This should depress convective initiation in the very near
term. Potential for a few elevated shwrs and tstms mainly aft 4z
with a weak h85 speed max. The feature cannot be ignored because
both the NAM and GFS have it...and the signature appears to be
showing up on water vapor over nern WV. As a result...carried a
20-30 pop for approximately the wrn half of the cwa. No changes to
temps with lows along the coast right around the SST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Bermuda high pressure and upper ridging remains across the region
Friday and Friday night. Heights will be rising through the
period. Again a weak surface trough develops across the lower
Hudson Valley Friday afternoon. Instability and CAPE will be
higher than Thursday and afternoon thunderstorms will be possible
inland. Will keep pops at chance, and only a little higher than
Thursday. Friday and Friday night will be more humid than Thursday
as low level moisture is transported into the region on return
flow. Dew points will be rising into the mid 60s, resulting in
higher relative humidity levels with afternoon highs similar to
Thursdays.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the
Atlantic beaches Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly dry conditions expected through the weekend. High
temperatures will be in the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 60s.
There is a change of some showers/thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening...mostly across areas north and west
of New York City. A cold front approaches the area on Sunday
afternoon, then moves across the area on Monday and Tuesday. As a
result expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms during this
period. Dry weather returns on Wednesday and Thursday.

High temperatures Monday through Thursday will be in the 70s to
near 80 degrees. Dewpoints will start out in the lower 60s making
it feel a bit muggy but, will drop down into the 50s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic through
Sunday, while a low pressure trough develops each afternoon
through Sunday via daytime heating. A cold front will pass through
the Monday into Tuesday.

Expect primarily VFR conditions and a S-SW flow with local sea
breezes, though some locations may see MVFR vsby in light mist or
haze late tonight into the early daylight hours. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible each afternoon/evening, primarily NW of
the NYC metros. Chances are high enough to mention at KSWF via
PROB30.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Light mist/haze with MVFR vsby possible 08Z-
12Z.

KLGA TAF Comments: Comments: Light mist/haze with MVFR vsby
possible 08Z-12Z. Occasional gusts 15-18 kt possible Thu afternoon
before sea breeze onset.

KEWR TAF Comments: Light mist/haze with MVFR vsby possible 08Z-
12Z. Occasional gusts 15-18 kt possible Thu afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: Light mist/haze with MVFR vsby possible 08Z-
12Z. Occasional gusts 15-18 kt possible Thu afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Sat through Tue...
.Fri Night-Sunday...Primarily VFR with afternoon sea breezes.
Isolated to widely scattered late day or early evening
showers/thunderstorms are possible, which could bring brief/local
MVFR or IFR conditions and gusty winds.
.Sunday night-Monday night...Better chance for showers and
thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions.
.Tuesday...Primarily VFR with afternoon sea breezes.
Isolated to widely scattered late day or early evening
showers/thunderstorms are possible, which could bring brief/local
MVFR or lower conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
The western periphery of Bermuda high pressure remains across the
waters tonight through Friday night. Winds and seas are expected
to remain below small craft levels into Friday night. Southerly
winds do increase somewhat Friday afternoon into the evening as
the pressure gradient force increases, and ocean seas may approach
small craft levels at that time.

Expect small craft advisory level conditions across the area
waters Saturday through the middle of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible inland this evening and again
Friday afternoon and evening. No significant widespread
precipitation is expected through the weekend.

Although widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with
the passage of a cold front Monday and Tuesday, widespread
flooding is not expected at this time. Localized urban or poor
drainage flooding is possible from heavier downpours.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...
MARINE...FIG/MET
HYDROLOGY...FIG/MET


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