Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KOKX 011434
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1034 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST
AS A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY...THEN MOVES THROUGH
THE TRI-STATE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND CONDITIONS WERE CLEAR AS SEEN FROM
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WAS SOUTH OF THE
REGION WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. THE BOUNDARY RETREAT NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH...ENHANCED BY DEVELOPING SEA BREEZES. UPDATED WIND WITH THE
HRRR WHICH SEEMED TO HANDLE THE WIND SHIFT WELL.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
RIDGE...KEEPING NEARLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH FEW IF ANY CUMULUS
BUILDING.

HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AXIS OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE SLIDES TO OUR EAST BY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER. FOR LOWS TONIGHT
USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
MIXED IN OVER URBAN AREAS. LOWS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE LARGEST DEPARTURE IN URBAN AREAS.

THE FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY GOES ZONAL OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE
S...WITH THE FLOW BECOMING WNW-NW ALOFT BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES TO FAR TO THE SW/S TO CAUSE ANY PRECIPITATION...SO WENT
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THE CMC-REGIONAL MODEL DOES
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY W OF NYC...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MET/ECS/MAV GUIDANCE...MIXING
DOWN FROM 975-850 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...AND GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF THOSE TODAY. HEAT
INDICES PEAK OUT IN THE LOWER 90S IN URBAN AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PREPARE FOR INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER WEATHER THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL COME TO AN END AS
FORECAST MODELS CONT TO SHOW A DIGGING UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE
SLIDING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A BUILDING HIGH
PRES SYSTEM OVER SE CANADA TO PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY SCT-SCT TSTMS. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
RAIN IN THE LONG TERM.

FRI-SUNDAY...A REFRESHING MARITIME POLAR AIR MASS ON EAST WINDS
REPLACES THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...ALMOST 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

WITH YET ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION DEFICITS ALONG WITH FIRE DANGER WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

LIGHT N/NE WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS 10 KT OR
LESS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB THIS EVENING.

A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY AT
KSWF/KHPN/KGON.

     ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS RED...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY LESS THAN 4SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT...THAT COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST.
AMDS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SEA BREEZE...THAT COULD BE OFF BY +/-
1 HOUR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
.THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES PROBABLE.
.FRIDAY...VFR. ENE WINDS G15-20KT.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK.

A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AT UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WILL BE 3 FT OR LESS AND ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS 1 FT
OR LESS AS A RESULT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
TSTMS WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS OF 5 FT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO
25 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THEN DRY WEATHER AGAIN FROM LATER FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MALOIT/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GC/MALOIT/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MALOIT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.