Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 261557
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1157 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly retreats to the east through Wednesday as
Hurricane Maria tracks northeast off the Mid Atlantic Coast.
Refer to statements form the National Hurricane Center for the
latest on Maria. A cold front moves through the region
Wednesday night, followed by brief high pressure building in
from the west through late week. Another cold front passes
through Friday night, followed by high pressure settling in
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The forecast remains on track for a sunny afternoon with very
high thin cirrus. Temperatures max out in the 80-85 range with
upper 70s on Long Island and coastal CT - about 10 degrees above
normal.

High surf and rip current potential continues along the south
shore of Long Island.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The northern stream ridge axis exits to the northeast and WSW
flow sets up aloft for Wednesday. There could be a weak 700 hPa
shortwave passing Wednesday afternoon, so have a slight chance
of showers then, otherwise it should be dry.

Uncertainty, as is always the case, with the return of the
fog/stratus deck tonight. Lows tonight should be around 10-15
degrees above normal.

As of now, expect a very similar day on Wednesday in terms of
the erosion of stratus and the temperature trends.

High surf and rip current potential continues along the south
shore of Long Island.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front moves through the region Wednesday night. Meanwhile,
moisture associated with Maria tries to sneak in mainly over the
eastern zones. Will go with low chances of showers for most areas,
but focused more to the east of the city.

Aside from a lingering shower possible early in the morning in the
vicinity of the twin forks, Thursday should be dry as high pressure
builds in. Leaned towards the warmer side of guidance for high
temperatures based on forecast 850-900mb temps during the afternoon.
It will begin to feel less muggy as well with dewpoints falling to
around 50 by the end of the day. A return to seasonable temperatures
then follows for Friday as high pressure remains over the region.

Global models differ in the timing of the next cold front, but best
guess right now is that it moves through at some point during Friday
night with a slight chance of showers. An upper trough/cold pool
aloft follows for Saturday so some instability showers are possible.
Kept PoPs at slight chance for this. Highs for Saturday mostly 65-70.

High pressure continues to build in for Sunday and Monday with dry
weather and high temperatures generally around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weakening high pressure remains across the region through the
TAF period.

Flight categories will continue to improve to VFR into the early
afternoon. KISP and KGON will likely take the longest to improve
and could see fluctuations between VFR and IFR through 17z. Low
ceilings return tonight after 00z, but the timing is a bit
uncertain and it could return earlier than forecast.

NE/E winds this morning and shift to the SE from the late
morning into early afternoon. Speeds will be 10 kt or less
through the day.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Winds will gradually shift to the SE under
10 kt into the afternoon. IFR CIGS could return as early as
sunset.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Winds will shift to the SE under 10 kt this
afternoon. IFR CIGS may return this evening earlier than
forecast.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Winds become SE under 10 kt through the
afternoon. Timing of IFR CIGS tonight uncertain.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which
implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of IFR CIGS tonight evening
uncertain.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of IFR/LIFR tonight evening
uncertain.

KISP TAF Comments: May see CIGS fluctuate between VFR and IFR
through 17z. Winds become SE under 10 kt this afternoon.
IFR/LIFR could return as early as sunset.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR to IFR possible with patchy
fog and/or stratus and a low chance of showers.
.Wednesday night-Thursday...MVFR or lower possible with isolated to
scattered shower activity.
.Thursday night-Friday...VFR.
.Friday night-Saturday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR possible in
any showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Swells from Hurricane Maria will keep seas on the coastal ocean
waters at well above Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through
at least Wednesday night, so have extended the SCA for Hazardous
seas through then.

As far as winds go through Wednesday night, a light pressure
gradient over the region will limit winds to around 10 kt or
less through then.

Lingering swell from Maria will likely allow seas to remain at SCA
levels through late week before gradually subsiding this weekend as
high pressure builds from the north. Gusts Thursday will be up to
around 25 kt behind a cold front, but mainly on the ocean waters.
Still a chance that a SCA could be needed on some of the other
waters. Winds otherwise subside back below advisory criteria from
Thursday night on.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts are expected over the next 7
days.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ075-080-081-
     178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/Maloit
NEAR TERM...Maloit/Tongue
SHORT TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JE/DS
MARINE...JC/Maloit
HYDROLOGY...JC/Maloit



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