Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 222346
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER SE CT A BIT BASED ON LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HOURLY
T/TD/WINDS.

DEEPENING MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES RIDING THIS FLOW...EACH BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN. WATCHING A WEAK WAVE/VORT MAX MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN NY/EASTERN PA...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN TRIGGERING SCT
SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS. MINIMAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE
NEARER THE COAST WHERE THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW HAS PRODUCED A
MORE STABLE AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE ALL DAY BKN-OVC SKY COVER. AS
SUCH...THINKING ANY PCPN THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL BE
RESTRICTED WEST/NORTH OF NYC METRO UNDER THE BETTER FORCING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FORCING WEAK AND LITTLE LIFT AT THE
SFC...CAPPED POPS AT LOW END CHC...THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA.

TEMPS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR TONIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG WITH SOME MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LVL TROUGH BEGINS PIVOTING OUT OF THE REGION AS THE STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO NUDGE EASTWARD. AT THE
SURFACE...THE HIGH PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE
REGION...KEEPING THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA. KEPT THE AREA DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...THEN
INTRODUCED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE AFTN WITH THE PASSING OF THE
FINAL SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED VORT MAX. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z
MODEL SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE PASSAGE OCCURS...BUT OVERALL THINKING
THE BEST CHC...IF ANYTHING DOES FORM...WILL BE WEST OF NYC METRO.
BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF OCCURRING AND OF ANY
COVERAGE...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHC...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE MOST
THE AREA REMAINS DRY. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS EARLY SAT NIGHT...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.

YET ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
CONTINUAL ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. SKIES FINALLY START
TO SCATTER OUT TOMORROW NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPS TO
DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST...DROPPING A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA
ON THURSDAY.

EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND
IMPROVING TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

VFR WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE FEW
TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2000 FT ALONG THE COAST WHICH MAY BECOME
BROKEN FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 04Z.


          NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SAT NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE WATERS. PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW MAY BUILD THE OUTER EDGES OF THE OCEAN WATERS TO AROUND 5 FT
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY EXPECTING BETWEEN 3-4 FT FOR
THE OCEAN AND 1 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. GUSTS AT MOST WILL REACH 20
KTS ON THE OCEAN.

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL AREA WATERS EXPECTED THEN TO LAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WATERS FROM THE WEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANY SHOWER THIS EVENING WILL BE SLOWING MOVING IN NATURE...WHICH
COULD RESULT UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. NO SIGNIFICANT
HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$





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