Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 280843
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
443 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST TONIGHT...SETTLING WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVING NORTH AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS ADVECTING IN.

BREEZY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHRA/TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH COLD POOL
INSTABILITY AND DIURNAL HEATING...AS WELL AS ALONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OFF HIGHER TERRAIN. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND
STRENGTHENING WINDS UP THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT ANY STRONGER
UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION. AS SUCH...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO EXISTS.

FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY EVENING WITH A DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MASS ADVECTING IN. STRONG GUSTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE
QUITE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING BEACHES DURING THE DAY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS TRACK NORTHWARD OR DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS POTENT SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
NORTHEASTWARD. EVENING WINDS DIMINISH AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.
LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTH TUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED
LOW HOVERING JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST...BUT THEN
STALL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD PUSH JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BUT WILL COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE
FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MAINTAIN HOLD OF THE REGION
THROUGH THURS. SHORTWAVE ROTATING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
COULD TRIGGER AN ISO SHOWER/TSTM TUES AFTN OVER FAR NORTH AND
WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA...BUT WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COULD LIKELY WILL END UP BEING A DRY DAY. THE NEXT MENTION
OF PCPN COMES THURS AFTN WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION...INJECTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR MASS. THE CLOSED
LOW ALOFT FINALLY PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH STILL WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE PATTERN STILL BRINGS THROUGH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES THURS-FRI...EACH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHC IN TRIGGERING AN
ISO SHOWER OR TSTM.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE STALLED FRONT BY THIS WEEKEND...RIDING
THE FRONT WHILE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
BRINGS THE SFC LOW NEAR THE TRI STATE AREA BY SUN MORNING. ENOUGH
FORCING ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
COMBINE WITH THE SFC LOW TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESP FOR
LATER SAT THROUGH SUN.

TEMPS REMAIN NEAR STEADY THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NW TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDING FROM THE WEST.

TSTMS AT 07Z WERE SIDESWIPING KJFK AND WERE ON THEIR WAY TO KISP
BETWEEN 08Z-09Z. THOSE STORMS SHOULD ALSO SCOUR OUT IFR CIGS THAT
ARE IN PLACE AT KISP. IFR CIGS AT KGON WILL BE MORE STUBBORN AND
SHOULD HOLD ON UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

THERE COULD BE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDS UNTIL ABOUT 16Z-17Z. EXACT TERMINAL IMPACTS ARE
UNCERTAIN AND SO THEY HAVE NOT YET BEEN MENTIONED IN TAF.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 10-15G20-25KT TAKING HOLD. THESE WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT WNW TOWARD EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...
REMAINING WEST OF 310 MAGNETIC.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-THU...VFR.
.FRI...AN ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDS...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GUSTS COULD BE
QUITE STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING...POSSIBLY JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE FOR A SHORT TIME.

THEN WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS...AND UNTIL MIDNIGHT ELSEWHERE.

SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUES MORNING.
AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NW...SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUES AFTN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FT SEAS OVER THE
WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AROUND A HALF INCH EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASIN AVERAGE
RAINFALL AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED TUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...PW
HYDROLOGY...






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