Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 200313
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1113 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE NEW WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE TRI- STATE FROM
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MAY IMPACT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK. ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE GRIDS
WITH THIN CIRRUS REMAINING OVER THE AREA. DON`T THINK IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOW TEMPS TO BE AFFECTED SO NO CHANGES THERE. ALSO
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO FIT BETTER WITH
OBS/TRENDS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTH OF THE REGION WITH LOW
PRESSURE DRIFTING EAST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US OVERNIGHT. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL KEEP A COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.

BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...WHERE
SOME PATCHY FROST/FREEZE IS POSSIBLE AS TEMPS DROP INTO UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL TRACK EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW. THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. CLOSER TO THE COAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
AND 30S. LOWS IN THE NYC METRO AREA WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW TO START THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MID WEEK AS PAC
AND NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASE. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THIS EVOLUTION...BUT MINOR DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT. A GOOD BIT OF
SENSITIVITY WITH THIS INTERACTION APPEARS TO LIE IN THE PAC
SHORTWAVE/RIDGE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED STARTING BY TOMORROW
MORNING. THESE DIFFERENCES ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE RESULTANT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
OUR REGION TUE NIGHT. OVERALL LOOKS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD TUES NIGHT. AMOUNT OF PRECIP WILL BE PREDICATED
ON THE DEPTH/STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH SHOULD CLARIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY TAPERS OFF WED
MORNING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WED AFT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.

DRY CONDITIONS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AS IT BUILDS ACROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON THE
STRENGTH AND PROGRESSIVENESS OF THIS ENERGY...AS PATTERN BECOMES
MORE BLOCKY IN NATURE.

NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONABLE ACROSS INTERIOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW MON AND TUE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WED WITH INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOT OF CAA...BUT
THEN A MODERATING TREND TO SEASONABLE AND THEN ABOVE SEASONABLE
TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A MODERATING AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. N/NE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS REGAINED
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVE AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SE ON SUN. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
WIND FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT-TUE MORNING...VFR.
.TUE AFTN-WED MORNING...SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...WITH MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE LATE TUE AFTN/WED MORNING.
.WED AFTN...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR. NW-N WIND
G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.WED NIGHT-THU...VFR. NW-N WIND G15-20 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY TIGHT NE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL
SCA GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE REGION.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA GUSTS
AND OCEAN SEAS TUES NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCA WIND GUSTS ON ALL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO
WED NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA THU INTO
THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY SUNDAY EXPECTED WITH MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT.
NE/SE WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
20 MPH.

WITH DRY FINE FUELS...THIS WILL POSE ANOTHER DAY WITH POTENTIAL
RAPID FIRE SPREAD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LOW THROUGH THE NEW
WEEK.

WE WILL MONITOR THE STRENGTH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVE
WHICH WOULD POINT AGAINST SIGNIFICANT RAIN.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$




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