Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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000
FXUS66 KOTX 060100
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
600 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
southeast Washington into the Idaho Panhandle this evening. Some
storms will be capable of heavy rainfall...hail...and gusty winds.
Improving but breezy conditions will begin on Friday, lasting
through the weekend. More unsettled and cooler weather is expected
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
LAPS analysis as of 5 pm indicated the best instability over SE
Washington into the Central Panhandle Mountains as well as the
Clearwaters with CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG with very minimal
convective inhibition. However with the low off the Central CA
coast there is no large scale forcing to initiate convection. This
should change this evening however for the Camas Prairie, Lewiston
area, and Blue Mountains as a couple stronger storms currently
producing quite a bit of lightning approach the area...with
outflow winds likely inititating new storms as they approach these
areas. Will have to monitor potential for gusty winds and small
hail as these approach.  Further north...across the Spokane/Coeur
D`Alene area...North Idaho Panhandle...and much of Central and NE
Washington low level northerly winds as well as earlier cloud
cover should help to stabilize the air mass this evening. The HRRR
shows convection falling apart as it tries to make it into these
areas this evening and thus POP`s were lowered for the remainder
of tonight. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Main aviation concern is the potential for thunderstorms
mainly over southeast Washington and the south Idaho Panhandle
this evening which could impact the KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus far
the storms are weakening as they come off the Blue Mountains and
the HRRR shows storms weakening this evening as they approach the
KLWS/KPUW TAF sites. Thus for now confidence is only low to
moderate of these sites being impacted and thus thunder was
removed for now. However will be monitoring radar trends.
Otherwise a tight northerly pressure gradient develops tonight
which will result in increasing north-northeast winds especially at
KMWH/KCOE by Friday morning. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  77  54  81  55  76 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  49  76  50  81  52  75 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Pullman        49  75  49  78  51  72 /  20  10  10  10   0  10
Lewiston       53  81  54  83  56  78 /  40  20  10  10  10  10
Colville       45  81  47  85  48  80 /  10  10  10   0   0  10
Sandpoint      47  74  44  79  46  73 /  20  10  10   0   0  20
Kellogg        45  73  44  79  46  72 /  50  10  10  10   0  20
Moses Lake     52  83  53  86  52  80 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      54  82  57  86  58  77 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           48  81  53  85  52  79 /  10  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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