Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 310546
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1046 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the Inland Northwest Tuesday
bringing warm and dry weather. A dry cold front will arrive late
Wednesday producing breezy conditions Wednesday evening through
Thursday. Afternoon temperatures next weekend will feel like
summer has arrived with many areas reaching 90 degrees or more for
the first time of the season.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday: A flat high pressure ridge will produce a
quiet period of weather tonight into tomorrow (Tue). Light winds
and mainly clear skies will allow for another chilly night in the
sheltered valleys of northeast Washington and far north Idaho.
Places like Republic, Priest Lake, Springdale and Deer Park will
fall into the mid to upper 30s tonight. Tuesday will be another
pleasant day with relatively light winds and a good deal of
sunshine.

Wednesday and Thursday: The arrival of a dry cold front on
Wednesday afternoon will produce another periods of breezy west
winds. Our mid-level high pressure ridge will flatten early in the
day increasing on-shore flow over western Washington by morning.
Subsequently the cross Cascade surface pressure gradient will
increase through the day. By mid to late afternoon, cooler
maritime air will begin to spill through the Cascade gaps. Given
the current timing from the GFS and NAM, gusty winds will peak
late Wednesday afternoon/early evening. Places like Wenatchee,
Chelan, Waterville, and Vantage will likely experience sustained
winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. The combination of
breezy winds, marginally low humidity, and temperatures in the
upper 70s and lower 80s will raise concerns for grass and
sagebrush fires. The fires Saturday and Sunday served notice that
fire season has arrived early this year in the Columbia Basin and
portions of the West Plains. May precipitation has been spotty
leading to locally dry fuels.

Breezy winds will carry into Thursday as the Polar Jet sets up the
Pacific Northwest. The combination of winds aloft and a tight
surface pressure gradient across Washington, north Idaho and
Montana will contribute to sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with
gusts to 25 mph for much of the day Thursday. Afternoon
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s (cooler than
Wednesday). The gusty winds will continue to be a concern for
grass fires, but relative humidity values will be higher
Thursday.

Friday: High pressure will begin to amplify over the Western U.S.
on Thursday leading to the start of a significant warm up.
Afternoon temps on Friday will climb into the 80s with warmer
conditions expected over the weekend. /GKoch

Friday night through Monday: Upper level ridge will be well
established over the region during this period leading to hot
temperatures, sunny skies, and mainly dry conditions, save for a
small shower or thunderstorm chance in the Cascades starting
Monday. The big story during the far extended will be the hot
temperatures with 850 mb temperatures supporting highs into the
90s, potentially even nearing upper 90s or 100 in the usual hot
spots on Sunday and Monday. The one unknown for Monday is the
possibility of some mid to high level cloud cover limiting the
heating potential, although current thinking is this will arrive
late enough it won`t have much of an impact. Those with heat
sensitivities will want to pay attention to the forecast as the
weekend nears. Keep in mind, normal high temperatures for this
time of year are in the 70s. /Kalin

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High pressure building across the Inland NW through
Tuesday will promote mostly dry conditions, save for a slight
risk for showers near the northern Cascades toward afternoon. The
TAF sites will see periodic middle to high clouds, which should
thicken some from the west later Tuesday as the ridge axis starts
to shift east and front approaches the Pacific Coast. Winds are
expected to light and diurnal. /J. Cote`

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  76  52  81  55  76 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  42  76  49  80  54  76 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        40  75  48  79  52  75 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       48  81  53  86  59  83 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Colville       42  79  48  84  51  80 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Sandpoint      40  74  46  77  51  74 /   0   0   0   0  10  10
Kellogg        40  74  46  80  50  72 /   0   0   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     45  83  52  86  57  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      52  82  58  84  59  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           47  81  54  85  57  81 /   0   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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