Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 280745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
245 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

A cold front near the Ohio River early this morning will continue
southward and clear most if not all of the FA by midday/early
afternoon. Will maintain POPs across the SE part of the FA early
this morning and across mainly the southern Pennyrile into the
afternoon given the close proximity of the front. By this evening
the air mass transition...even in the SE part of the FA...will
bring an end to any rain chances. The major upper pattern shift
will occur as a 500mb low drops SE out of the western Great Lakes
Region and into the upper Ohio Valley by this evening. A strong
surface high pressure center will follow...building into the FA
from the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest Region this weekend.

Skies will clear through the day today with clear skies across the
FA by this evening. Northerly winds will drop dewpoints to around 60
tonight across the north and into the mid 60s across the south with
similar low temps. North to NE winds will continue over the weekend
with the surface high to our north. Bottom line is that the much
advertised unseasonably mild weekend is firmly in tact given the
synoptic weather pattern. Max temps will be in the lower to mid
80s even with abundant sunshine. Lows by Saturday night will be
in the upper 50s north to lower 60s south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

The first part of the long term period continues to look quiet with
not much going on weather-wise in terms of precipitation.

A large sprawling surface high pressure system will be situated over
much of the eastern U.S. at the start of the week. The dry and
cooler airmass which will be over the region for the weekend will
slowly start to moderate as we work through the week. We never
really get a southerly fetch established over the region, so the
rise will be slow and we should stay in the mid to upper 80s during
the period. As such, humidity levels will be also slow to rise,
with dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 60s early but rising
into the mid to upper 60s later in the week.

As far as precipitation chances, the beginning of the week continues
to be dry. However, as the sfc high breaks down, we start to get
back into a summertime pattern. There continues to be questions as
to if there is enough moisture and forcing to warrant chances for
rain on Wednesday. Models continue to be wishy washy on QPF so
believe if anything forms, it should be mainly isolated. On
Thursday, the GFS/Canadian are indicating an upper level system
moving south which may push a weak front into the area that may
provide a better focus and moisture for convection. Still keeping
POPs low for now.


Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Shower chances will be removed from KEVV and KOWB after 09Z,
although will have to watch KOWB closely for a potential
extension for another hour or two. Otherwise MVFR ceilings.
..possibly IFR briefly at KPAH...are forecast til 14-15Z followed
by decreasing clouds at all sites this afternoon and evening as
drier air arrives on the heels of northerly winds AOA 10 kts today
and near 10 kts tonight.




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