Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 010425
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1225 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES WERE CONTINUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION.
USED A NAM/HRR/GFS COMBO TO CONSTRUCT...TIME...AND CEASE POPS BY
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PLOUGHS
SUFFICIENTLY SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INITIATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE I 70
CORRIDOR...WITH PRECIP PROBABILITIES INCREASING NORTHWARD THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE REGION.

THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WAS THUS RADICALLY CHANGED AND NOW
INCLUDES LIKELY POPS FOR AREAS FROM PIT SOUTHWARD...ALL BASED ON
A BLEND OF SREF...AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC TREND OF GFS AND
NAM.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR IN SHOWERS MAY BRUSH OH PORTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING MVFR/ISOLATED IFR IN STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CEILINGS LIFT AND EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
UNDER BUILDING RIDGING.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTH OF PIT WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
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