Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 012121
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
521 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURNING UNTIL A MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK BEFORE
HEADING BACK ABOVE NORMAL MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-80 WILL HAVE TO WAIT A LITTLE BIT BEFORE RAIN
MOVES THAT DIRECTION GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY STABLE THERE
AND ALL THE INFLOW IS BEING CUT OFF BY DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH.
SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
THIS CONCURS WITH LOCAL RESEARCH USING CURRENT THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC PROFILES. WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APLENTY
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE / I-76 SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL
CARRY INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

INSTABILITY DOES WANE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER YET ANOTHER WAVE IS
SET TO TRACK DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALLOWING IT TO SURGE A
BIT NORTHWARD. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA ALONG WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION DIVERGENCE TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT
AS A RESULT...MEANING A GOOD SWATH OF SHOWERS SHOULD CROSS THE
AREA. POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SLOWED A BIT PER THE CONSENSUS
OF 12Z GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE.

DUE TO THE MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH VERY HIGH
DEWPOINTS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY WARM FOR EARLY
MAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AROUND
SUNRISE...AND SHOULD RACE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING. WHILE RAIN
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE
LOW...A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. SOME
SHOWERS WILL LINGER TUESDAY...BUT THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY BY
TUESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT GAP IN RAIN WILL BE SHORT AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO DROP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE NAM IS AN
OUTLIER TO THE WEST...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW. THIS WILL YIELD INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS IN ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD. WEATHER WILL REMAIN COOL...CLOUDY...AND
WET WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE LOW DRIFTS
EAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VCSH FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS SAVE FOR ZZV WHERE CONFIDNCE IS
HIGHER IN SEEING A THUNDERSTORM GIVEN PROXMITY TO BETTER
INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A FINAL WAVE
MOVES DOWN THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY AT MOST SITES INTO MONDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS IS LIKELY WITH A WEDNESDAY COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...98
NEAR TERM...98/FRIES



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