Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 261805
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
205 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN TONIGHT AND LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONT HAS ADVANCED THROUGH LBE AND WILL PASS MGW SHORTLY. TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...WHICH IS HELPING TO
FEED A STRONGER LINE OF SHRA ALONG THE FRONT IN THE RLX CWA.
LIGHTER SHOWERS EXIST BEHIND. THUNDER HAS BEEN NONEXISTENT SO
FAR...BUT COULD STILL SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DESPITE THE QUICK COOLDOWN BEHIND THE FRONT...SUBZERO LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IS LAGGING THE BOUNDARY A BIT. THIS WILL DELAY THE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE FKL AREA SHOULD START TO SEE FLAKES BEFORE
00Z. WITH DEEP MOISTURE DEPARTING QUICKLY AND THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
ABOVE WHAT MOISTURE THERE IS...PLUS THE WARM GROUND...
ACCUMULATIONS WILL HARD TO COME BY. EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH
FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BOTTOM OUT DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL START TO TICK UP AGAIN TOWARDS
12Z AS MAIN H500 SHORTWAVE STARTS TO APPROACH. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALREADY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS AND MADE LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AND SUPPORT WAVERS...WITH ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME AS SUBZERO 850 MB AIR LAGS THE FRONT A BIT. GIVEN THE
TIME OF YEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND...NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW
AND LIMITED AND EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THE BOUNDARY
LAYER LOOKS TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL SEE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN MANY AREAS BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS
H850 THERMAL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT NOW PASSING THROUGH MGW. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IN LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING TSRA AT THE TERMINALS AT THIS POINT.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH TIME. CHANGEOVER TO SHSN WILL
OCCUR SLOWLY TONIGHT...BUT CIG/VIS SHOULD MOSTLY BE MVFR AT WORST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING SHOWER COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 12Z
WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE...BUT CIGS WILL KEEP SLOWLY IMPROVING
THROUGH MVFR. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING
AND SETTLE TOWARDS NW.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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