Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281023
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
623 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE DAWN UPDATE. PREVIOUS...AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER RIDGE...IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS PRECIP OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
TODAY...WHILE THE RISING HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT NEAR TERM TEMPS
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES. NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY SLATED FOR A WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SWEEP
OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WARM WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EXPECTED BEFORE
THE RELIEF ARRIVES WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 90 MARK AND HEAT INDICES
IN THE MID 90S.

AS FOR PRECIP WITH THE FRONT...NIGHT TIMING AND VERY WARM MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-4 TO -5 C AT 500 MB AS PER GFS AND
NAM...WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND EXPLOSIVENESS...WHILE LITTLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS INDICATED EITHER. PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN
THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY WILL THUS SUFFICE FOR NOW.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A DRY CLOSE TO THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING UNDER A BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH INCLUDED UNMENTIONABLE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
IS PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN.
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT
INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING PATCHY MVFR FOG...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL CU AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT UNDER WEAK SURFACE RIDGING.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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