Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182342
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
742 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE WILL COME WITH A SUNDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRES UNDR COOL NW FLOW ALOFT WL MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR TONIGHT...NO FROST PROBLEMS ARE INDICATED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND MDLS INDICATING CLD DVLPMNT WITH AN INVERTED
TROF ALNG THE RIDGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON TIMING FOR NXT CDFNT PASSAGE. GIVEN THAT THE MODEL
SPREAD WITH THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY NARROW...THE NAM BEING THE ONLY
SLOW OUTLYING MODEL...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO
INCLUDE LIKELY NMBRS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CNTY WRNG
AREA...WHERE THE BTR PCPN SPPRTG DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED.

MODELS GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY
BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...SO A SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNC SHOULD QUICKLY END THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION WL DRIVE SATURDAY TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS. COOLER AIR WL INFILTRATE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND RMN INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WITH BLDG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BE BLEMISHED ONLY BY SOME
PERIDAWN FOG. SFC WIND WL RMN LGT...BUT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
E OR SE FRIDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
GENL RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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