Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260713
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
213 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH CHANGING TO
SNOW. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS COLD AIR HAS NOT REACHED
AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 WITH RAIN STILL BEING REPORTED. STILL
EXPECTING A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT SNOW AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED CLOSER TO 1-3 INCHES THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHER
END AMOUNTS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PRESTON AND TUCKER LATER
TODAY. ELSEWHERE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF A KZZV TO KPIT AND KLBE LINE. MODELS AGREE ON
KEEPING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND CLOSES OFF OFFSHORE OF NEW JERSEY KEEPING
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY NEED
TO EXTEND THE END TIME OF ADVISORY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SUFFICIENTLY
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO APPROXIMATELY 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE ONLY DRY 24 HOUR PERIOD
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ONE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME IMPORTANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT CLIPPER AND DELIVERY OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC
AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO VALLEY. WPC PROGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SAVE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV
NEAR KMGW WHERE THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS YET TO OCCUR. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
AFTER DAYBREAK...AS ENERGY WITH THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS TO THE
COAST. THAT BEING SAID...AN AREA OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW MAY BRING VSBYS
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE TAF SITES. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE
TIMING OF ANY TEMPO CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD ONTO PREVAILING IFR
UNTIL 21Z OR SO.

E-NE WIND WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY BACKING
TOWARD THE W-NW AS THE LOW DEPARTS. WIND GUSTS TO 15KTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ001>003.

&&

$$












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