Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 301514
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1114 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING STRATOCU BEHIND AN EXITING SHRTWV WL CONT ACRS THE AREA
INTO THE AFTN WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. SOME DCR IN CLDS IS EXPD TWD
EVE AS WK SBSDNC INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES.

CLDS WL BEGIN TO INCR AGAIN OVRNGT AHD OF THE NXT APCHG SHRTWV.
TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO SEASONAL AVGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEPENING UPR TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WL ADVN ACRS THE
GT LKS FRI WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS THRU THE DAY. THE DEEP UPR TROF WL
RMN ACRS THE ERN CONUS SAT WITH A MOISTURE SWATH AND OMEGA ACRS
MUCH OF THE RGN.

COLDER AIR IS EXPD TO BEGIN TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE INITIAL SFC LOW
AS N-NE FLOW DVLPS FRI NGT INTO SAT. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNW TO MIX IN
WITH RAIN SHWRS AT TIMES...BUT A WRM BNDRY LYR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SNW POTENTIAL AND PREVENT ANY ACCUMS OUTSIDE OF THE RIDGES SE OF
PIT. IN THE RIDGES...EXP A GRDL CHG OVR TO MAINLY SNW SAT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENLY EXP A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNW IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN IN GRASSY AREAS BEFORE THE PCPN BEGINS TO DMNSH
SAT NGT. THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS LTD WITH N-NE FLOW...AND
MOISTURE BEGINS TO DMNSH BY THE TIME NW FLOW DVLPS.

BLO SEASONAL AVG TEMPS ARE EXPD INTO THE WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS BASED ON GEFS/ECENS MEANS.
A COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...WITH
READINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL BY TUESDAY AS A FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SHALLOW TROUGH IS
PROJECTED FOR A MID WEEK...WITH PROMISE OF AN UNSETTLED END TO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESIDUAL STRATOCU BLANKET WL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST PORTS THIS
AFTN WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR...BUT IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED
LT TDA AS COLD ADVCTN CEASES AND AS SBSDNC INCRS UNDR A SHRTWV
RIDGE.

LGT SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE SW AND S LATE TNGT AS UPSTREAM SHRTWV
ADVNS...BUT GENL CONDITION DETERIORATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
THAT SYSTEM UNTIL AFTR DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS DEEPENING LOW
PRES SHUNTS A BROAD MSTR SWATH OVR THE UPR OH REGION. ENSUING
UPSLOPING COLD ADVCTN WL THEN MAINTAIN SHWR AND STRATOCU POTENTIAL
UNTIL SFC HIGH STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/15





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