Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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972
FXZS60 NSTU 220053
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
153 PM SST SAT JAN 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
BUILDING CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF TUTUILA...WHILE FEW TO SCATTERED
CUMULI ARE SEEN OVER MANU`A. THIS IS EVIDENT OF A TROUGH TO THE
WEST WHILE A RIDGE IS TO THE EAST. CURRENT MODEL DATA SHOW BOTH
FEATURES REMAINING CLOSE TO THE TERRITORY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
HENCE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH
SEEMS TO DOMINATE...ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL WATERS. BY TOMORROW...MODEL DATA
SHOW MOST OF THE SHOWERS CONCENTRATED TO THE WEST AND OVER
SURROUNDING WATERS. HENCE...WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT AND MAKE NO CHANGES THEREAFTER FOR THE
SHORT TERM. WILL ALSO ADD THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MOVING FURTHER EAST...FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE ISLAND CHAIN...BRINGING
AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS...CLOUDS AND WINDS. HOWEVER...SINCE MODEL SKILLS
DIMINISH GREATLY IN THE LONG TERM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF
THIS SCENARIO PERSISTS AND MAKE NECESSARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH III MODEL SHOWS A DIMINISHING TREND IN SEAS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. HENCE...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS FOR MARINE INTERESTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE





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