Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 240040
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
140 PM SST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLIES ACROSS THE
TERRITORY THROUGH THE NEW WEEK...AND KEEPING A SURFACE TROUGH
STRADDLING NORTH OF THE SAMOAN ISLAND CHAIN...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN MIGRATING
BACK OVER THE TERRITORY BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING AN UPWARD TREND IN
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF FUTURE MODEL OUTPUTS CONSISTENTLY SHOW THE
SAME SOLUTION.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WAVE WATCH SHOW HEIGHTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT. THEN ANOTHER LARGE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST ASCAT PASS STILL
SHOW SOME WINDS UP TO 20 KTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. HENCE...WILL
DROP ADVISORY FOR HIGH SURF AND CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR SMALL
CRAFTS DUE TO WINDS.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED

&&

$$

LUTU-MCMOORE





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