Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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000
FXZS60 NSTU 190114
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
214 PM SST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MONSOONAL TROUGH OVER THE SAMOAN
ISLANDS WILL TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
SLOWLY THUS ALLOWING THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS TO LINGER OVER THE FCST
ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE WET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WITH BREAKS IN SHOWERS. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE-WINDS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE SAMOAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...
.SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MONSOONAL TROUGH AXIS WILL ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST
A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURES ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS HENCE INCREASING RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE TRACKED TO MOVE UPSTREAM. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR THE REGION
UNTIL MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HINTS AT DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH INTENSIFICATION OFF THE EAST OF MANUA DURING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO COMMENT ON THIS. WILL MONITOR
THIS EXPECTED SITUATION AND MAKE NEW UPDATES AS NEW MODELS BECOME
AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE PREV FCST THE SAME. ANTICIPATE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WINDS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE TRADE-WIND GENERATED SEAS AND SWELLS WILL PRODUCE
SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN PEAKING
TO NEAR 12 TO 13 FEET DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ISSUANCE
OF A SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT
THIS SITUATION.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL SATURDAY.
.A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH FACING REEFS.

&&

$$

BAQUI







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