Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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813
FXZS60 NSTU 110020
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
120 PM SST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SPELL AND NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. DRY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THUS...VERY HOT AND DRIER AIR WILL LINGER ABOVE THE REGION WITH ONLY
MINIMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UP TO 10 KT FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
.SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODEL RESOLUTIONS
INTRODUCED THE ARRIVAL OF A MONSOONAL TROUGH STARTING MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS EXPECTED SITUATION WILL BE A BREAKTHROUGH
FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS AND
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE AS THE EXPECTED MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDS
EASTWARD OF AMERICAN SAMOA THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...WILL
MONITOR THIS SITUATION BEFORE MAKING NEW UPDATES AS NEW FUTURE
MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

$$

CB








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