Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 270558
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
358 PM CHST SAT DEC 27 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...EAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
PREVAILED ACROSS THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE COULD BE SEEN ON AFTERNOON
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS. PROJECTING THIS
AREA WEST SHOWS IT SHOULD START TO PUSH ACROSS THE MARIANAS
BETWEEN 9 AND 10Z TONIGHT. PROJECTING THE MOTION OF THE BACK EDGE
OF THE DISTURBANCE KEEPS CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. COMPUTER MODELS DO SHOWS THIS FEATURE. THE
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE MARIANAS BUT EXPECT
SHOWER COVERAGE TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE MARIANAS
TUESDAY NIGHT. DID NOT ADD TO THIS TO FORECAST YET. GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLE HAVE TE DISTURBANCE... ECMWF DOES NOT. WILL WAIT FOR
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADDING TO FORECAST. IF IT DID OCCUR
IT WOULD PROBABLY RESULT IN SIMILAR WEATHER TO THE DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. THAT IS A FEW PERIODS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH
EAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MOST
PREDICTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST. BUOY DATA INDICATE SEAS NEAR GUAM AND SAIPAN AROUND
8 TO 9 FEET. FEEL SEAS HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE CANCELLED. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED LATER

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WILL BE ADDED LATER

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN





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