Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 302130
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
730 AM CHST SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT OVER THE MARIANAS.
RADAR INDICATES A BATCH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF GUAM THAT
SHOWS SIGNS OF VORTICITY INDICATIVE OF A WEAK TROUGH...BUT MOST OF
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MISS GUAM AS THE MOVE WSW. SEAS REMAIN NEAR
3 FEET AT THE IPAN BUOY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SETS UP...AND WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY IT
IS STILL NOT CLEAR IF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TO SCATTERED. THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON RAINFALL WED-THU BUT THE ECMWF IS GETTING
MORE GENEROUS. HENCE...WILL LEAVE ISOLATED FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS OF 3-5 FT
WILL BUILD BRIEFLY TO 4-6 FT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO 3-5 FT WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. RIP RISK WILL
REMAIN LOW.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MAJURO AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY AS
UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS TO THE WEST. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ARE
PROGGED TO RETURN TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES NORTH
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A DIFFUSE SURFACE
TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES IS
PROVIDING A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION OVER POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTH
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AT KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI TONIGHT. THE DIFFUSE CHARACTER OF THE TROUGH AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION MAKES FORECASTING DISCRETE CONVECTIVE EVENTS
DIFFICULT SO CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE MADE.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SIMILAR TO EASTERN MICRONESIA...STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND OBSERVATIONS
REVEAL LIGHT WINDS REMAINING OVER CHUUK STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING IN CHUUK COASTAL WATERS SO ONCOMING
SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADJUST SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE CURRENT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF
CHUUK BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH NEAR YAP AND KOROR IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER PALAU AND YAP STATE BUT SHOWERS REMAIN
ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PLACEMENT OF MAIN CONVECTIVE AREAS SO EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS



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