Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 280600 RRA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RESEND FOR WEB PAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
342 PM CHST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST
OF THE ISLANDS...ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE MARIANAS WATERS. SEAS ARE
AROUND 7 FEET AT THE BUOYS. NO WELL-DEFINED WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
COULD AFFECT THE MARIANAS ARE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ABOUT THREE WEEKS OF AN ANOMALOUS NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
OF MID-LATITUDE AIR INTO THE MARIANAS...A MORE NORMAL DRY-SEASON
PATTERN OF EASTERLY TRADE WINDS IS FINALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SLOW RISE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 70S RATHER THAN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. THIS SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A RETURN TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS SEEN IN WINDS OR SEAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND SEAS OF 6-8 FEET. A SMALL TRADE WIND
SURGE WILL BRING A RISE IN SEAS AROUND THURSDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE
BRIEF. THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WILL BE
THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT NORTH SWELL...GIVING NORTH FACING REEFS A
WELL-DESERVED BREAK FROM HAZARDOUS SURF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. WINDS STAYED BELOW RED FLAG
THRESHOLDS FOR THE MOST PART TODAY...BUT WINDS LOOK TO BE HIGHER
ON SUNDAY...WHEN A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. EVEN THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD RETURN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NO REAL
RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME DRYNESS IS IN SIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A BROAD AREA OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE
DATE LINE TO NEAR KOSRAE. THIS BAND OF CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAJURO TONIGHT AND
ACROSS KOSRAE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF MAJURO SO ONLY ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
THE MAJURO FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH
IN TO MAJURO OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD WESTWARD. A DRIER TRADE-WIND
REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN TO THE MARSHALLS SUNDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY AND SPREAD WESTWARD TO KOSRAE TUESDAY. POHNPEI WILL
BE NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

AN EAST-NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE-WIND
SURGE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ON EAST FACING REEFS AT KOSRAE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WIND
WAVES AND SWELL WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT WITH SURF
POSSIBLY FALLING BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS SUNDAY EVENING. EVEN
THOUGH SURF CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS
AT MAJURO...A HIGHER RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS STILL LIKELY. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALTIMETRY DATA INDICATE COMBINED SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH CHUUK STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AT WENO THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT WESTWARD...THE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CHUUK WATERS BY
MIDNIGHT. WEAK TRADE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH
MONDAY. A DRIER TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION
FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS SOUTH OF YAP AND KOROR THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER BOTH
LOCATIONS. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH DRIFTING FURTHER
NORTHWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN INCREASING
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK. INDICATION
IS THAT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ONLY BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS TO YAP...SO CHOSE TO MAINTAIN PREVIOUS FORECAST OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW. IF THE
TROUGH DRIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...INCREASED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT YAP AS WELL.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/KLEESCHULTE



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