Area Forecast Discussion
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298
FXPQ60 PGUM 100603
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
403 PM CHST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN NEAR GUAM WITH A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
EXTENDING FARTHER EAST-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. A SHEAR LINE IS PRESENT
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING WITH THE SHEAR
LINE NEARING THE MARIANAS LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SHEAR LINE. THE
MARIANAS WILL SEE MORE MOISTURE BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
BUT NOT A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT. A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND
25 KT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 12 FEET
BY FRIDAY WITH SURF INCREASING ALONG NORTH...EAST AND WEST FACING
REEFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
APPROACHING SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME NEEDED MOISTURE
TO THE ISLAND...BUT DRYING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST TRADES BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS
THE REGION BY SATURDAY...AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH SKY COVER BEING MODULATED BY
VARIATIONS IN MOISTURE. A MINOR DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH
WILL GIVE KOSRAE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THE WEEKEND.

SEAS HAVE DECREASED TO 9 FEET OR LESS...AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE NOT
EXPECTED FOR NOW...BUT SEAS SHOULD BUILD AROUND SUNDAY FOR POHNPEI.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR MAJURO IS HISTORY...BUT HIGH SURF WILL
LINGER AT KOSRAE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
AS WITH EASTERN MICRONESIA...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS A DRY
ONE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MOST AND MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES.
TRADES WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG FOR YAP AND CHUUK OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD...ESPECIALLY AT CHUUK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

W. AYDLETT/MIDDLEBROOKE



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