Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 011332
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY... BUT OTHERWISE DEEP HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY... BRINGING HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM TUESDAY...

EXPECT A PRETTY QUIET DAY. LATEST SURFACE MAP STILL SHOWS A WEAK
MSLP PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER ERN NC AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
JUST WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS EXTENDING ACROSS WRN NC. MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS ARE RISING TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(NOW MOVING OUT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC) AND AHEAD OF THE POTENT
VORTEX OVER CENTRAL IN THAT WILL AFFECT US WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THU. IN ADDITION TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC FEATURES TO FORCE
ASCENT... WE`RE ALSO LACKING MOISTURE AS PW VALUES ARE HOLDING NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL. WILL TRIM BACK EXISTING ISOLATED POPS IN THE ERN
CWA BUT WILL NEED TO RETAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EXTREME SRN/SE CWA WHERE HEATING AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOCALLY
GREATER NEAR THE WEAK TROUGH... AS SUGGESTED BY THE NSSL WRF AND
HRRR. WE SHOULD SEE DECENT HEATING TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE LIMITATIONS
CAUSED BY THE NOW-DISSIPATING FOG/STRATUS AND THIS AFTERNOON`S
DIURNAL FLAT CUMULUS... AND WITH MORNING THICKNESSES AT LEAST 5-10 M
ABOVE NORMAL... EXPECT HIGHS TO BE AROUND A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL...
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S... NECESSITATING AN UPWARD NUDGE OF
PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO FORECAST HIGHS. -GIH

TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW PATCHES OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD NOT
BE AS EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. MIN TEMPS UPPER
60S-LOWER 70S. -WSS

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...

WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER INDIANA IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLIGHTLY SHARPEN THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THUS...SHOULD SEE A FEW MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...AND
IN VICINITY OF THE NW PIEDMONT (CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM). STILL...COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE NO WORSE THAN ISOLATED.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BOOST TEMPS TO NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS UP AND DRIFTS ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY INITIATE/SUSTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MIN
TEMPS UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM TUESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH/SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY... WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
LATE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSSIBLY COMBINING WITH SOME LINGERING ENERGY THATS LEFT BEHIND FROM
THE LEAD DISTURBANCE IN THE FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS
COMBINED WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY... BEFORE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST PUSHES DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE WEAK DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW
SINKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY AT LEAST SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED BY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND MAINLY DIURNAL.

HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD
THOUGH.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 805 AM TUESDAY...

AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY1 4Z-15Z.
AFTER 15Z...EXPECT A SCATTERED-BROKEN STRATOCU LAYER WITH BASES 3000-
4500 FT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS
EXTENSIVE AS WHAT IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH CHANCE
OF OCCURRING AT ANY PARTICULAR TAF SITE APPEARS FAIRLY LOW.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS


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