Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 251458

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1055 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A cold front will drop south across North Carolina today and then
stall across South Carolina on Wednesday. This front will lift back
north on Thursday before a strong cold front approaches the region
from the northwest on Friday.

As of 1055 AM Tuesday...

Latest surface analysis shows the cold front dropping across central
NC. Surface dew points have already fallen into the mid 60s across
the border counties with a dew point of 66 noted in Roxboro!
Northerly winds have arrived across all of central NC. Further
aloft, the upper-level trough axis has shifted east, with the most
recent short wave trough reaching the coast this morning.
Precipitable water values continue to fall today and will range from
1.25 north to 1.75 south by this evening. A weak short wave drops
into the region from the northwest late tonight. Otherwise, with
decreased moisture and limited forcing, precipitation chances will
be limited this afternoon and tonight. Have included just a chance
for an isolated storm across the southern Coastal Plain and the
Sandhills in proximity to the front. A shower is possible across the
Yadkin and western Triad late this afternoon from isolated
convection that forms in the mountains, but this may be a stretch.
Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly sunny with periods of
of mainly high clouds.

The morning RAOB at KGSO provided an observed 1000-850 hPa thickness
value of 1415m which is 4m greater than yesterday while RNK came in
a little cooler than yesterday and MHX a little warmer. Given that
the strongest cold advection will remain to our north, current
forecast highs in the 89 to 94 range look good. It will be cooler
tonight with a few lows reaching the upper 60s near the VA border
with most locations ranging from 68 to 74 degrees. -Blaes

As of 245 AM Tuesday...

Wednesday and Wednesday night will likely be the most comfortable
day Central NC has had in some time with much lower RH and heat
index values for much of the region.

The aforementioned surface high will continue migrating eastward out
over the Atlantic through Wednesday night as the next frontal system
develops over the Midwest. Models suggest the front pivoting from a
west-east orientation to a more north-south orientation as it shifts
eastward. Aloft, weak ridging will persist with a residual surface
trough to our south. With the front lingering over the region and
continued northerly flow, highs will top out in the mid to upper
80s, with a few pockets of low 90s possible. Overnight lows once
again in the upper 60s to low 70s. Convection will once again be
possible during the aft/eve, mainly across the south but the weather
could remain largely dry through the period.


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
As of 320 AM Tuesday...

Thursday is expected to be a relatively dry day as upper flow over
central NC remains zonal and a surface low passes to the north of
the area. The attendant cold front to this low is expected to drop
southward across the area on Friday. The upper trough becomes deeper
than in yesterday`s simulations and helps to now push the front
completely through the area by Saturday afternoon. This will keep
the best chances for showers and storms between 18z Friday through
12z Saturday. Continental high pressure to the northwest dries out
the area, keeping weather settled through Sunday before a wave out
of the Gulf of Mexico becomes a player early next week.

Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Thursday and Friday will drop into
the mid 80s for the weekend into early next week. Lows in the low to
mid 70s early in the time frame will drop into the upper 60s to low
70s for the later stages of the long term forecast.


As of 705 AM Monday...

24-Hour TAF period: Some ground fog/low stratus has developed during
the past hour and KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI could go down to LIFR
briefly. Lesser chance of LIFR visbys at KINT and KGSO where lower
dewpoints have made their way into the region, but they could go sub-
vfr briefly. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected throughout much of
the period. High clouds will likely stick around for much of the
daytime hours, especially in the south (KFAY), however cigs should
remain above VFR. Northwestern sites (KINT, KGSO) should clear out
later this morning. Isolated to widely scattered convection will be
largely along and east of the US-1 corridor (KRDU, KFAY, KRWI)
throughout the day, dissipating again tonight.

Looking ahead: Mainly VFR conditions expected through the work week
with scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. This could result in some restrictions in morning
fog/stratus or storms with the greatest risk late in the work week.


The KRAX WSR-88D will be down for the Service Life Extension
Upgrade (SLEP) beginning this morning and likely lasting through
Thursday or Friday.

The temperature & dew point sensor at site KFAY, located at the
Fayetteville Regional Airport, is malfunctioning. NWS technicians
have turned the sensor off and ordered parts to repair it. At
this time, we expect the sensor to be returned to service early
next week.





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