Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 132338
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
735 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AIDED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

TODAY AND TONIGHT: A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP ON THE
RADAR MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN VA...DISCERNIBLE ON THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AT THIS TIME CAUSING SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME. ALL OF THESE SHOWERS HAVING TROUBLE GETTING
GOING AT THE MOMENT AS THEY ARE CURRENTLY IN A VERY POOR ENVIRONMENT
WITH SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND NON-EXISTENT SHEAR. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER INTO
THE NW PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH OUT OF IT.
OTHERWISE A MOSTLY DRY DAY IN CENTRAL NC. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
AROUND 5 KTS AND THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 1420S SUGGESTIVE OF HIGH
 THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY OVERNIGHT AS ARE THE
RH CROSS SECTIONS WITH THE ONLY HINT OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS BEING IN
THE SOUTH AND EAST. GOING WITH A SLIGHTLY LESS CONFIDENT PERSISTENCE
FORECAST WHICH SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG AT KRWI BEFORE
SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY AT KFAY AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MILD...IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN
THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AIDED BY A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL HOWEVER TAKE ITS TIME GETTING HERE AND
THEREFORE MONDAY COULD STILL BE DRY OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH A
LITTLE BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER THAN TODAY BUT MORE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HIGHER THICKNESSES WILL COUNTERACT THE CLOUDS
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT UP INTO THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW WHICH WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
90S. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES UP OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
GET CLOSER. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS ONLY REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

A DEEP VORTEX IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HEADING NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. AS A RESULT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. ALSO...GIVEN THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG
TROUGH...THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN (ALTHOUGH THE
REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS).
THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES AMONG THE MODELS (FRONT COMING
THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING OR NOT)...NEVERTHELESS THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST...MOSTLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION
COUPLES WITH THE INCREASED SHEAR (DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
20-30 KNOTS). THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH
AIRMASS (PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES). AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS QPF VALUES OF 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY GIVEN
THE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (WHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR EARLIER)
TO THE LOWER 70S FURTHER SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUNDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP WITH REGARDS TO IF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA OR NOT...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN CAROLINA. LATEST MODEL
RUNS STILL SHOW MORE IN THE WAY OF DRIER/COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA).
THUS...WILL SHOW A DECREASE IN POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT
WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN (HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA) GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE FRONT
ENDS UP. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EVEN MORE FOR THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WAVE(S) OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...WHICH WOULD RAISE
PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION
COMES IN HOW SOON PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE...WITH THE
GFS INDICATING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS HOLDING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WILL
MAINTAIN AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS MOSTLY LOW/MID 80S...LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE DEEP
TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM SUNDAY...

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRIAD AREA WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AND NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANY IMPACTS AT
KINT/KGSO. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH S-SW
WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 8 KTS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE AT KRWI
AND KFAY WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG MAY OCCUR AROUND SUNRISE IN
THIS PERSISTENCE WEATHER REGIME. FOR MONDAY AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH
15/00Z...ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY ISOLD TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NW
PIEDMONT INVOF OF KINT/KGSO. WINDS WILL BE S-SW 5-10KT WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 16KT.

LONG TERM: RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY..BRINING A THREAT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK BUT THERE STILL MAY BE CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION..NP/ELLIS


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