Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 261958
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
358 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will extend down through western and central
North Carolina. An upper level disturbance will cross the region
late Saturday through Saturday night, followed by another
disturbance Sunday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Friday...

Heights will continue to rise this evening as upper ridging
builds into the area then flattens tonight. Pressure gradient
will continue to relax with the development of a lee side trough
across western NC. The MCV and associated over IL this afternoon
will progress east into northern Mid-Atlantic States overnight. Thin
high level debris cloudiness associated with this convection may
overspread central NC after midnight, with little sensible impact on
lows. Lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Friday...

Low amplitude shortwave disturbances riding atop the flat
subtropical ridge in place across the southern U.S. will set the
stage for scattered upstream convection to move into the area within
a west-southwesterly WAA belt spreading east into the southern
Appalachians late tonight/early tomorrow morning and then into
central NC on Saturday. The convection should align closely to a
wavy west-east frontal zone that will initially push east into VA
during the afternoon, and then gradually sag south into central NC
during the evening and overnight, likely aided by the expected
convective and associated outflow. While an EML plume advecting into
the area may help to bolster destabilization across the area, it may
also serve to limit convective coverage especially south of US 1.
Will keep a good/high chance across the far north with only slight
chance pops across the south, with a decrease in pops with cooling
after sunset.

A strong mid-level wind field will result in favorable deep layer
shear of 30 to 35 kts, along with moderate instability to support a
cluster or two of severe storms capable of producing large hail and
damaging straight-line winds, mainly along and north of HWY 64.


Warming H8 temperatures to 15 C tomorrow(+ 5C from Friday) with a
corresponding 20 meter rise in low-level thicknesses to 1420 meters
will support a quick return to above normal temperatures. Highs in
the mid to upper 80s north to lower 90s south. Lows tomorrow night
in the mid to upper 60s with some patchy fog possible where any
heavy rain falls.


&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

A short wave trough over the TN valley Sunday morning will move east
and across the Carolinas by late day.  Scattered showers/tstms are
expected along and ahead of it, developing over the mountains around
mid-day and moving east across our cwa during the late afternoon
into early evening.  With 2000+ J/kg cape and 40+ kt of deep layer
shear forecast in the models, the environment would appear to
support at least isolated strong to severe tstms.  Given the
position of an old boundary along and north of hwy 64, look for the
best chance for such activity to be across the northern half of our
CWA.

Short wave ridging behind the aforementioned short wave will provide
a break in the weather Sunday night into Monday morning, but the
next short wave moving through the longwave trough centered over the
Great Lakes will move across the Carolinas late day Monday into
Monday night, helping to push a weakening cold front across our
area.  This system will provide the next chance for showers and
tstms Monday afternoon through Monday night.

For the rest of the long term period, will keep pops near or above
climo each day as the aforementioned cold front will stall across
the region and a series of mid level short waves embedded in the
broad cyclonic flow move across the region.  Above normal temps
forecast through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 141 PM Friday...

Strong subsidence, behind the departing upper level trough will
result in VFR conditions through the 24 hour TAF period. Breezy west-
swly winds will gradually subside as pressure gradient relaxes
through the afternoon/early evening, with flow becoming SWLY with
the development of pre-frontal surface trough in the lee of the
mountains.

Outlook: A series of upper level disturbances along a back-door cold
front forecast to sag  south into the area over the weekend will
support a chance of showers and storms late Saturday
afternoon/evening, and again on Sunday afternoon and evening owing
to the presence of a moist and unstable airmass. With the front
stalled across the area, the threat of mainly afternoon/evening
showers and storms will continue on Monday, and again on Tuesday
with the approach of another cold front from the west.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG
TERM...np AVIATION...CBL



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