Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 251559
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1158 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1145 AM SATURDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT: SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF A RECENT SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE HAS REINFORCED THE DRY/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS (AS EVIDENCED BY A COMPARISON OF 00/12Z RAOB DATA)...
ENSURING A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MODEST LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION (H925 +2C TO +4C) ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AS
UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PRIOR
DAYS...IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. THE MSLP/HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
OVERNIGHT AS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL LOW (IN ONTARIO AT 15Z) DIGS
SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...MAINTAINING A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE
OVER CENTRAL NC. NOCTURNAL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH A LIGHT W/NW
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND THIS
WILL BE THE BASIS FOR INDICATING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
GIVEN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAD COOLING...IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT A BRIEF (2-3 HR) PERIOD OF CALM WINDS WOULD PROBABLY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S. -VINCENT

FOR SUN/SUN NIGHT: DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND STABLE MID LEVELS
WILL PERSIST OVER NC. THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND LIFT NE AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT DIPPING SOUTHWARD INTO NE
NC SUN... HOWEVER THE DIP IN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SHOULD BE
MARGINAL AND BE CONFINED TO FAR NRN AND NE NC. IN FACT...
THICKNESSES OVER THE SRN CWA SHOULD BE SEVERAL METERS HIGHER SUN
THAN SAT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... PERHAPS TOUCHING
80 IN THE SC BORDER COUNTIES... WITH SUNNY SKIES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST SUN
NIGHT... AND THE CALMING AIR AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL FACILITATE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING... FAVORING LOWS A TAD BELOW NORMAL...
40-47. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...

SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MIGRATES
EAST AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. INITIALLY COOL MORNING TEMPS AND A
WEAK SURGE OF COOL AIR...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST...WILL BE OFFSET BY
DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND STRONG INSOLATION. HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST MAY
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.  AS THE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
MONDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MODERATE MINS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LOWER 50S TUESDAY MORNING. THE WARM START AND THERMAL
RIDGE OVERHEAD...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1390M...WILL ALLOW
HIGHS UNDER STRONG SUN TO APPROACH 80 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH
SOME LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL AGAIN MODERATE MINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MID 50S OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM SATURDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS
IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE DEEPER FLOW AND WILL BE CUT OFF FROM
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED AS THE INITIAL PUSH
FROM A MID LEVEL VORT MAXIMA LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS A
RESULT...POPS WILL BE ON THE ANEMIC SIDE INITIALLY...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS BARELY WARRANTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY HAMPERED BY CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD REACH
THE MID 70S AFTER THE WARM MORNING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

WITH THE FRONT SLOWING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST...CLOUDINESS WILL BE
THICKER WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AROUND ON THURSDAY...STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE...BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO STALL OR SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
LOWER 70S IN THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL RECEIVE A STRONG NUDGE FROM A
DIGGING UPPER SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIMIT
LINGERING SHOWERS TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH CLEARING AND
HIGHS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1200 PM SATURDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL RULE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD IN ASSOC/W A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL BECOME WSW AT 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST AT 4-8
KT OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE SUN MORNING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING TO
~10 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOOKING AHEAD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK IN
ASSOC/W A PERSISTENTLY BENIGN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT
SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...VINCENT



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