Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 192000
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will  pivot northeast across western North Carolina
into Virginia tonight and Friday. This will be followed by a brief quiet
period Friday afternoon and night. Then... a strong storm system is
expected to affect the region over the weekend into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Thursday...

Sunny conditions with light and variable winds through sunset.
Then cloud cover will begin continue to increase from the southwest
this evening as the mid/upper trough approaches. Rain is expected
to spread into the western Piedmont around 09z-10z, then push
northeast into other areas around sunrise or later (SE). Lows in the
40s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Thursday...

Rain is expected over the region Friday morning... tapering off
from the west during the afternoon. QPF will be highest in the NW,
lowest SE, ranging from around 0.25 NW to less than 0.10 SE.
Temperatures will remain rather cool or held down by the rain
and clouds. Light flow even behind the departing system will
generally yield cloudy skies with some breaks during Friday afternoon.
Expect highs in the 50s north, lower to mid 60s south.

Friday night... Patchy fog and variably cloudy skies expected as
we will be between systems. The main issue is the potential
for dense fog if we get some partial clearing. Lows in the upper 40s
to mid 50s.
&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...

A wet, but mild spell is on tap for the weekend into early next week
as a strong cutoff low pressure area digs into the Midwest and
across the Gulf states before lifting up the Atlantic coast on
Tuesday. Timing confidence is fairly high, while finer details of
potentially how much rain where are still somewhat murky. There
appear to be at least 3 distinct periods of potential showers as
this slow-moving system taps into the Gulf and feeds abundant
moisture north up the Atlantic coast. An initial short wave and
associated surface warm front will be lifting northeast, steered by
an upper ridge over the eastern seaboard on Saturday, with showers
spreading north into the area by afternoon and lingering through
Saturday night. Shower coverage may be a bit diminished on Sunday,
but mid level instability and upper dynamics (particularly upper
divergence in the exit region of a jet streak rounding the base of
the upper low) should support isolated thunder in the afternoon
through Sunday night. Finally, we should see some lighter, wrap
around showers linger through Monday into Monday night as the upper
low lifts out to the northeast.

All told, widespread rainfall amounts exceeding 1.5 inches are
expected over the 3 day period. Rain should be spread out enough
over the period to preclude any flooding on larger streams and
rivers, but some localized flooding in urban areas is possible given
the potential for stronger convection on Sunday and Monday. Highs
Saturday and Sunday will be in the 60s, cooling to mid 50s to lower
60s Monday in modest northerly cool air advection on the backside of
the low level circulation.

Cold air will remain bottled up over the northern Conus, so
temperatures will remain mild with as mid level ridging migrates
across the area Tuesday through early Thursday. Abundant sun will
help induce a bit of a warmup, with highs around 60 Tuesday warming
to the mid 60s on Wednesday. A cold front will be approaching on
Thursday, which looks to be mostly dry and we will still be shielded
from arctic sir in the wake of the front, so highs should still
reach the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1130 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions will continue through 06Z/tonight. Ceilings will
begin to lower from the SW later this evening and overnight. MVFR TO
IFR conditions expected with areas of rain and fog between 09Z-
15Z/Friday. The rain is expected to end by late morning, with a
return to MVFR then VFR conditions during Friday afternoon.

Long term: VFR conditions will continue into Friday night. However,
a warm front will approach late Friday night and Saturday. This will
bring IFR to MVFR conditions Saturday with areas of rain and fog.

Another system will bring adverse aviation conditions with rain,
fog, low ceilings, and thunderstorm chances Saturday night through
Monday morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...Badgett



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