Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 061820 CCA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
243 AM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS. A STEADY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK
STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN CA AND WESTERN NV THIS MORNING, WHICH SHOULD ALSO
LIMIT FOG FORMATION. BY THIS AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NEAR THE CA COAST.
THIS RIDGE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN AND EXPAND INLAND TO THE GREAT
BASIN BY MONDAY, KEEPING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE,
WITH STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS.

WE HAVE SEEN TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE THESE STRONG INVERSIONS AND LIMITED
MIXING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALSO
HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UPWARD TO NEAR 50 DEGREES TODAY, AND
TO THE MID 50S BY MONDAY FOR SOME WESTERN NV/EASTERN CA VALLEYS
INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN. TEMPERATURES FOR SOME OF THE VALLEYS
IN WEST CENTRAL NV MAY STILL LAG BEHIND THE RENO/TAHOE AREA BY
A FEW DEGREES THROUGH MONDAY. AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SIERRA RISE
WELL ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MELTING OF HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE WITH RUNOFF INCREASING INTO SOME
OF THE AREA LAKES, RIVERS AND STREAMS. MJD

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WEST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES. MIXING WILL ALSO IMPROVE
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD PUSH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, WARM FOR EARLY FEBRUARY BUT NOT PUSHING
RECORDS, WHICH ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES HIGHER.

OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE, ALLOWING IT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BRING ENERGY INTO THE WEST
COAST. SOME ENSEMBLES ARE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND SEEMS TO BE CONSISTENT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE LARGE, DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN U.S. BEGINS TO FILL AND SHIFT EASTWARD,
FINALLY ALLOWING FOR UPSTREAM PROGRESSION. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING
THESE INITIAL WAVES ARE ENCOUNTERING A STRONG RIDGE, DOUBT THEY
WILL PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW, WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS, AND
15 TO 25 KT RIDGE LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SYSTEM
BRUSHING BY TO THE NORTH NEAR THE OREGON BORDER IS BRINGING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY, WITH CLEAR
SKIES ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIMITING FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THERE IS STILL A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING PATCHY FREEZING FOG AROUND KTRK AND THROUGH THE
MARTIS AND SIERRA VALLEYS. BETTER FZFG CHANCES EXIST FOR SUNDAY
MORNING IN THESE SAME AREAS - AROUND A 60-70% CHANCE. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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