Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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770
FXUS65 KREV 181108
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
308 AM PST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong cold front will move through the region today into
tonight bringing periods of snow to the Sierra and snow showers
to western Nevada. The temperatures and associated windchill early
next week will be the coldest of the season and be dangerous to
anyone outside without proper protection from the cold.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

No major changes to the forecast overnight. Winds are currently
ramping up as the strong cold front moves into northwest Nevada
and northeast California this morning. The fast moving front is
is expected to move through Reno/Tahoe around midday and move
through southern Mono County by around 8 pm this evening. Winds
will peak along and ahead of the front with a band of snow showers
along and just behind the front.

Ridge winds are currently gusting to 80+ mph, with peak winds
expected through late morning before slowly subsiding behind the
front. For the valleys a period of strong gusty winds is expected
with gusts of 40-50 mph along the front. Behind the front winds
will remain breezy with very cold temperatures and wind chill
becoming a concern for anyone outdoors the next few days.

With the westward shift in the system forecast yesterday the
central Sierra remains in better position to pick up snow with
lower chances for western Nevada. Along the cold front 2-4 inches
of snow is expected around the Tahoe basin with 3-6" at the
higher elevations. Most of the rest of the region will see
anywhere from a trace to up to around 2 inches. Snow showers will
continue Monday, mainly in the Sierra, with another few inches
accumulation likely.

In western and west central Nevada there is a decent chance for
some areas to see a flash freeze tonight. Daytime high
temperatures in lower valleys will reach into the mid to upper 40s
today ahead of the front which will warm the ground surfaces
enough to melt falling snow. All of the precipitation is expected
to fall as snow, but could quickly melt on warm ground surfaces,
and then refreeze as very cold temperatures take hold tonight
behind the cold front. Keep in mind, it only takes 0.01" of liquid
to refreeze on roads to make them very slick, so be extra
cautious driving around the region tonight.

The coldest temperatures of the season are expected for the start
of the week. Monday and Tuesday, temperatures throughout the area
will struggle to reach around freezing, with low temperatures in
the teens and single digits. This will be quite a shock for most
people after the very warm winter the region has been
experiencing. Keep in mind, temperatures and wind chill will be
enough to be dangerous to anyone outside the next few days.

With the very cold temperatures there will also be the chance for
lake effect snow Monday morning into early afternoon south of
Pyramid and Tahoe that may add additional snowfall accumulations
to those areas. Lastly, there is a very slight chance some
convection on Monday could be enough for a quick low top
thunderstorm to develop. The best chances will be in west central
Nevada, and if storms do develop, they likely wouldn`t last long.
-Zach

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next week...

Cold trough remains over the West Coast through the second half of
the week with below normal temperatures and increased chances for
snow as multiple shortwaves drop through the Pacific Northwest and
into northern NV/CA. Latest models are in good agreement showing the
next system dropping into our forecast area Thursday. This will
bring another round of snow for the Sierra and chances for snow even
into the valleys of western Nevada and northeast CA. Travel may
become impacted by light snow not only for the Sierra on Thursday,
but for the evening commute in the lower valleys in western Nevada.

Weak shortwave ridging moves over on Friday for a short break in
between weather systems. Another shortwave moves into the region
Saturday, bringing another shot of cold air and snow in the Sierra
and valley floors.

Forecaster confidence continues to rise with regard to the weather
pattern remaining active through the end of February. We don`t see
any major winter storms on the horizon, however weaker cold storm
systems with light to moderate snow are possible through the end of
the month and into the beginning of March. -Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds are already increasing across the region this morning as a
strong cold front moves in. Increasing winds aloft will create
dangerous low-level wind shear and moderate to severe mountain wave
turbulence through this evening. Wind gusts at area terminals will
be around 35-45kts today, with ridge winds in the Sierra topping out
around 90kts.

This cold front will also bring a burst of snow along the front this
afternoon and evening. This will bring brief IFR CIG/VIS due to
snow, along with light snow accumulations at out area terminals.
There is a 70% chance of 2-4 inches of snow at KTVL and KTRK this
afternoon and evening with the frontal passage. For KRNO and KCXP,
lesser amounts of 0-1" are most likely.  As for KMMH, best chances
for snow will be this evening and tonight with snow amounts of 1-2"
likely.

Additional light snow amounts are possible on Monday for
area terminals with periods of IFR conditions during heavier snow
showers. -Hoon

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong winds are expected across the western Nevada Sierra Front and
along the Eastern Sierra today with widespread gusts 45-55 mph. Wind
prone areas will see localized gusts up to 65 mph this afternoon.

The area of strongest winds will be along the US-395 south of Carson
City down through Mono county and into the Owens Valley late this
morning and into early this afternoon. A dry slot aloft will also
bring lower humidity for those lower elevations mainly along and
east of US-395 where fire weather conditions will be elevated.

Fire personnel should be aware of these elevated conditions,
especially for areas east of Mono Lake and Crowley Lake that haven`t
seen any wetting rains in several months. -Hoon

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening NVZ002>004.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening
     NVZ001.

CA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening CAZ072.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening
     CAZ073.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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