Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 282049
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
149 PM PDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

Warmer and drier conditions on the horizon as high pressure
finally builds into the area this weekend into next week. Other
than a couple of weak waves bringing brief cooling and enhanced
breezes, the ridge will strengthen across the West by midweek next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Area of low pressure that brushed just east of the area will
continue to migrate eastward through the evening with only slight
chances for showers east of Highway 95 in central and eastern
Nevada. Most of these showers will likely be very weak and may
only result in virga and no precipitation reaching the surface. North
winds will continue to be gusty through this evening for areas
along and south of a line from Mono Lake to Hawthorne. As the low
digs further south tonight there may be enough moisture along with
upslope flow to produce some light showers along the eastern
Sierra, especially for communities south of Bridgeport.

The main weather concern overnight will be the increasing north
to northeast winds along the foothills and ridgelines of the
Sierra. Ridge wind gusts 50 to 70 mph will be possible as the
pressure gradient tightens overnight. The winds will decrease by
late Saturday morning as the high pressure moves further east
across the Sierra ridges and western Nevada.

High pressure`s influence will really become noticeable on
Saturday afternoon and into Sunday as temperatures begin to warm
while winds decrease. By Sunday, western Nevada will warm into
the mid to high 70s with Sierra locations into the mid 60s.
Warming temperatures will be a nice change for recreational
purposes during the day, but will bring another set of impacts as
snowmelt and increased stream and river flows become the primary
concern. Expect river flows to increase region-wide, but
especially on the Carson and Walker river systems. Stay away from
all fast-moving, cold streams and rivers as it begins to warm up
this weekend. If hiking in the foothills or mountain areas, be
prepared for snow-covered trails and hidden hazards beneath the
snow, like streams and creeks. Keep in mind, as snowmelt
increases with the warming temperatures, streams and creeks
typically experience an increase in flows overnight. Camping near
a stream or creek is not recommended unless you want to wake up
in 30 degree water in the middle of the night. -Edan


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

This was another round of minimal changes to the existing forecast.
Models continue to favor a weak backdoor frontal passage Tuesday
that will keep flow more northerly before becoming easterly by
Wednesday. The eastern Pacific ridge is still forecast to shift
into the western United States ramping temperatures up into the
upper 70s and low 80s for western Nevada with mid/upper 60s to
around 70 for Sierra valleys on Thursday.

Models largely diverge late Thursday into the weekend. GFS maintains
a strong ridge with the potential for instability showers over the
weekend while the EC becomes more progressive bringing a moderately
strong cold front through the region. While slight chances were
left in as a nod to the EC for Friday, the forecast will lean
towards the GFS. This is mainly due to the tendency for global
models to move major features, like blocking ridges, too quickly.

Either way, river flows will continue to increase on most river
systems. This is especially true on the Walker and Carson river
systems that respond more readily to snowmelt than the Truckee
River. River flows will remain elevated for at least the next couple
of months, and it is advised that extra caution be taken if you will
be near river banks. Fast flows are not the only threat; the water
is deceptively cold with hypothermia setting in quickly. Boyd


&&

.AVIATION...
Flow will be fairly variable into this weekend remaining northerly
through this evening with some breezes around 20kts for area
terminals. Easterly flow sets up this afternoon aloft with the
potential for turbulent conditions over and west of the Sierra.
Winds will become relatively light tomorrow through early Sunday
before another dry backdoor front increases northerly flow once
again.

Otherwise, expect VFR conditions for the near future. Boyd

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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