Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 262209
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
209 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH INTO THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SIERRA
AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE
LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS WELL
AS INCREASING CHANCES FOR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. THE LOW
ORIGINATED OFF THE BAJA COAST WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO BRING
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WITH IT AS IT TREKS NORTHWARD.

LIGHT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE BETWEEN 6500-7000 FT
WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE THE 7000 FT MARK. AS THE
LOW SLIDES NORTHWARD TONIGHT, LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS HIGHWAY 50 AND INTERSTATE 80 BY TUESDAY
MORNING. FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO DO
NOT EXPECT ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS FOR NOW. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE
TAKEN THE LOW A BIT FARTHER EAST AS IT ADVANCES NORTH INTO CENTRAL
NEVADA, SO BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. IN TERMS OF SNOW, SOME OF THE HIGHER
SIERRA PASSES MAY GET A COUPLE OF WET/SLUSHY INCHES IN THE MORNING,
BUT WARMER ROAD TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP THE ROADWAYS MOSTLY WET
INSTEAD OF ICY. WET ROADS CAN STILL BE SLICK ROADS, SO DRIVERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION AND ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF BRAKING DISTANCE ON
WET ROADWAYS.

THE LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE AND EXITS THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
ONLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS ALONG THE CREST AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95. ON
WEDNESDAY, CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE LOW ALLOWING
FOR CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A WEAK TROUGHY PATTERN HANGS UP ACROSS THE WEST
ALLOWING FOR A WEAK AREA OF DEFORMATION TO FORM OVER MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES. LEFT IN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. WEISHAHN

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE ON FRIDAY, BUT A CONSENSUS WOULD PUT THE CORE OF
THE LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER. WHILE CHANCES ARE SLIM,
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOW COULD LEAD TO
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE TOP OF THIS LOW, SHUNTING IT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND TAKING ALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH TRANSLATES TO
MID TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEYS AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY EAST
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE AND EXITING
LOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND RIDGE GUSTS OF 60 TO 80 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

A PLUME OF MOISTURE MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BUT THERE ARE VARIATIONS IN WHERE ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS PLUME ANYWHERE FROM NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA TO AS FAR SOUTH AS SAN FRANCISCO, BUT THE MAJORITY SHOW IT
PUSHING INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON, WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL WITH
OPERATIONAL MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY, BUT DID
INCREASE CLOUD COVER. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH
TODAY AND WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH NEVADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000-6500 FEET, A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
POSSIBLE FOR KTRK, KTVL, AND KMMH, BUT RUNWAY ACCUMULATION IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ARE LIKELY IN THE SIERRA. FOR WESTERN NEVADA,
LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT. DJ

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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