Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 280957
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
257 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WITH VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEATHER IMPULSE COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THICK
CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE LACKING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS MONO-MINERAL COUNTY AS
UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES. ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE
WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE WHERE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS
IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO AN INCH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL FOLLOW THIS WAVE TUE NIGHT-WED WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND A
SLIGHTLY DRIER MOISTURE PROFILE. STILL, WE EXPECT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF RENO-TAHOE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AS NIGHTTIME LOWS
START VERY WARM, NEAR 70 FOR SOME WESTERN NV VALLEYS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT ALTHOUGH
THE NAM/GFS WERE SHOWING A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NV TONIGHT AHEAD OF WAVE. LATE DAY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA
WILL PUSH OUT INTO THE BASIN AND RANGE/NORTHWEST NV AND MAY STAY
UP OVERNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING, GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH LAST HALF OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE
REGION. FOUR CORNERS RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MOISTURE REMAINING OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE SIERRA FROM TAHOE NORTHWARD PRETTY
STABLE, BUT CONVERGENCE AREAS SUCH AS MONO-MINERAL, SIERRA FRONT,
AND LASSEN- NORTHERN WASHOE LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO
DROP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO AROUND 0.7-0.8", WITH STORMS
PICKING UP SPEED. THESE FASTER STORMS AND LESS PWAT WILL ALLOW FOR
LESS OVERALL RAINFALL AND HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE THE MAIN STORM CORES.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL POTENTIAL VORTICITY WAVES THAT
WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE, HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION (EVEN
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. DON`T
WANT TO GET INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR NOW, BECAUSE MODELS HAVE
BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT ON THE DETAILS PAST WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND DETAILS REMAINS
VERY LOW. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NV AND NORTHEAST CA ON
MONDAY, BUT AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. A FEW BRIEF TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BTWN 21Z-04Z MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, WITH
A 10% PROBABILITY OF AFFECTING THE KMMH AIRPORT. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT. MJD/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)







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