Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 292042
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
142 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW COOLING THROUGH MID THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS LOWERING TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THURSDAY. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST. SLIGHT COASTAL AND VALLEY WARMING
FRIDAY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER...THEN
COOLING ACROSS THE REGION...A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE 29/1200 UTC ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE LONG-TERM.

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW AROUND 500 MILES SW OF SAN DIEGO...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CA. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE REGION.

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER TO BEGIN THE WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE
REGION BY MID WEEK. THIS...AND A FEW TROUGHS MOVING BY TO OUR
NORTH...WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL BY
THURSDAY...AND CREATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY FROM OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OF -12 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO NORTHERN NEVADA WILL WARM
COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS AGAIN INTO THE 70S AND 80S...AND
LIMIT NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CREATING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MARINE LAYER
AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...WITH LOCAL
GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
292020Z...COASTAL AREAS...VFR CONDS WITH SCT HIGH
CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT MSL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW
CLOUDS RETURNING AFT 30/0300Z...WITH BASES 500-1000 FEET MSL AND
TOPS UP TO 1500 FEET ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WHERE THE CLOUDS
INTERSECT TERRAIN IN THAT LAYER. STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR 30/15-
16Z MONDAY MORNING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCT-FEW CLOUDS AOA 15000 FEET WITH
UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
120 PM...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
THOUGH VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE. OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
130 PM...A SOUTH SWELL WITH A LONG PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS
ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING BEACHES. FOR DETAILS SEE THE BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT...LAXCFWSGX. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SURF WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SWELL PERIOD DROPS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORANGE
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...23


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