Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 230958
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM WEATHER AND A VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER TODAY AND FRIDAY. ANY NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND
LIMITED TO THE COAST...BUT POSSIBLY DENSE. OVER THE WEEKEND A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING
COOLER WEATHER AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER. PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WEATHER AND LESS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WERE OBSERVED ON MESAS OF NORTHERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT SOME DRAINAGE WIND HAS PUSHED THE
FOG OUT TO SEA FOR THE TIME BEING. A PATCH OR TWO OF DENSE FOG IS
STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. AND THAT WILL BE TRUE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND WARM WEATHER WILL RULE THE DAYS THROUGH FRIDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY WHILE THE
MARINE LAYER DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT
GETS ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE TROUGH WHICH DRAWS UP A
PATCH OF MOISTURE THAT A FEW MODELS CONSIDER ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY. NOT READY TO BUY OFF
ON THAT SOLUTION AS THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS RATHER STABLE AT THAT
TIME...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY APPEAR OVER THE INTERIOR. AND
SOME WILL BE MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS IN THE LEE OF THE RIDGES. WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG OVER RIDGES AS WELL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE ENTIRE COASTAL BASIN WILL BE FILLED
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL FEEL LIKE FALL. THE TROUGH MOVES OUT EARLY MONDAY
AND HIGHER PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. NO BIG RIDGE AMPLIFICATION...BUT A MODEST WARMUP IS LIKELY.
THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE LESS DEEP FOR LESS LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IN
TIME AND SPACE. AFTER TUESDAY THE GFS AND EURO MODELS DIVERGE INTO
POLAR OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z GFS PRODUCES A STRONG RIDGE OVER
THE WEST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE THE EURO SLOWLY DROPS A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DOWN THE WEST COAST. SINCE THE 00Z GFS
RUN IS AN OUTLIER...EVEN DIFFERING FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...MORE
CREDENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO THE EURO SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN AND
ENSEMBLES AGREE. IF THIS SYSTEM ALL COMES TOGETHER AS IT LOOKS
NOW...SOME RAIN COULD ARRIVE BY TRICK OR TREATING TIME. BUT THAT IS
A LONG SHOT AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
230900Z...PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG COULD OCCUR THROUGH 14Z
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AT ALL COASTAL
AIRPORTS IS LOW...BUT BKN CEILINGS BELOW 500 FT MSL WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...INCLUDING AT KSAN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AFTER 15Z TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND VISIBILITIES OF
ONE MILE OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...BROTHERTON





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