Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 051105
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY. REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WILL BYPASS MOST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO THE EAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING
WARMER DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LATE NEXT WEEK MOISTURE DRIFTING NORTH FROM THE TROPICS MAY BRING
MID LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS MORNINGS INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM KEVIN GETTING SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA AND INTO
ARIZONA. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM KEVIN WITH ABOUT 1 INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
MOVING INTO EASTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS ISN`T
QUITE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION BUT COULD PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS.

WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND: TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WHERE WE SEE
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN AVERAGE AS THE LONGWAVE WEST COAST TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT THE "COOLER" WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH. 500 MB HTS OF 582 DM THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 587 DM
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER TEXAS BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
INTO SO-CAL. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES OF WARMING SUNDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY. ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REACH
590 DM FOR ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING. THE HIGHER PRESSURE
ALOFT ALSO MEANS A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER...SO MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THEY DID THIS WEEK.

ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES
WEST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE
UPSWING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH COASTAL HIGHS IN THE
80S...VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 90S...AND MOUNTAIN HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL SEE HIGHS FROM 105-108...AND THE HIGH DESERTS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS SEND A SURGE OF
MIDLEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM WHAT IS NOW JUST A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 550 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS WEEKEND...THEN MOVE NORTHWEST
PARALLEL TO THE BAJA PENINSULA THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHEAST
FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO
NORTHWEST MEXICO MAY DRAW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND THE GEM ARE BULLISH WITH THIS SCENARIO. IN
CONTRAST...THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER AND KEEPS NEARLY ALL OF THE
MOISTURE MUCH FARTHER WEST OVER THE OCEAN. WILL KEEP THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUE TO EVALUATE MODEL TRENDS
WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION... 050900Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 2200-2500
FT MSL AND TOPS TO 3200 FT MSL WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH INTO ORANGE
COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE THIS MORNING. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS
STRATUS MAY STAY OUT OF KONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOCAL VIS 3 TO
5 SM POSSIBLE WHERE STRATUS NEARS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
CLOUDS CLEARING TO THE COAST 15-18Z. PATCHY STRATUS WITH BASES 1500-
2000 FT DEVELOPING AFTER 06/04Z...MAINLY ALONG THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
COAST. OTHERWISE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH SUN
MORNING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA FL200 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS
THROUGH SUN MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... 210 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES... 215 AM...A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND BUILD INTO
SUNDAY...PEAKING AT 3 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 20 SEC.  SURF WILL BUILD
TO 3-5 FEET BY LATE TODAY...PEAKING SUN AND MONDAY AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET WITH SETS TO 8 FEET ALONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES. THE
SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH SWELLS. STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE HIGHER SURF...CREATING DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
BEACHES OF ORANGE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES AND IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...SS



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