Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 050945
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
245 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY
AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IT WILL BRING COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND BRISK
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL BE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

MARINE LAYER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY TO FILL THE ENTIRE
COASTAL BASIN THIS MORNING...AND THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIZZLE.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME GUSTS WILL TOP 50 MPH. THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST MODELS
INDICATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL
MIGRATE INLAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VERY
SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND ENOUGH MOISTURE KEEPS
SWIRLING AROUND THE LOW TO KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH LESS CHANCE THAN ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS IN THE LOW DESERT...TWO TENTHS TO
A HALF INCH IN COASTS AND VALLEYS...AND A HALF TO AN INCH OR SO IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERY NATURE WILL MAKE THE RAINFALL
DISTRIBUTION QUITE RANDOM AND VARIABLE. SNOW WILL STAY ABOVE
6500 FEET...BUT SEVERAL INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE ON THE HIGHEST
PEAKS. THE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS EAST LATE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST TO BRING FAIR AND WARMER
WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE COASTAL CLOUDS NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
050930Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 2500-3000
FT MSL AND TOPS TO 4000 FT MSL HAVE FILLED IN THE COASTAL BASIN
OVERNIGHT. VIS WILL DROP TO 3-5 SM WHERE THESE CLOUDS INTERSECT
TERRAIN ON THE COASTAL SLOPES. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING FROM THE COAST TO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ONLY PARTIAL
CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER AFTER 17Z, BEFORE THE CLOUD LAYER THICKENS
BACK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER...SCT CLOUDS AOA 15000
FEET WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY TODAY. GUSTY SW TO WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING WEAK TO MODERATE UP/DOWNDRAFTS OVER AND EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TODAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
     RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN
     DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...TS



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