Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LIES OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
SEPARATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TUTT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS TO
MEANDER ACROSS THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOCAL
REGION. MEANWHILE....THE BROAD MONSOONAL TROUGH BULGES SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...BASED ON THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 5 AM AST...WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 N...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE LATE TODAY...OR ON THURSDAY
AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES
SHALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES
TRANSPORTING MAINLY LIGHT ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST...
A GENERALLY DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. LATEST NAPS AEROSOL SUGGEST SLIGHT DECREASE IN
SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH
HIGH CONCENTRATION OF DUST IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL THE DEPRESSION/REMNANT
LOW AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY...LOCAL TERRAIN AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM AS AN OPEN WAVE BY THAT TIME IT
ARRIVES TO OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND LOCAL ISLANDS BY LATE THURSDAY
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. STAY TUNED AS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN SEE
HOW THIS UNFOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF
SHRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TIST AND TNCM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 23/17Z...THIS MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE MAINLY 3 TO 5 FEET BASED OF THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS WITH WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGIONAL WATERS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE DEPRESSION
OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION...
DURING THAT TIME AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  91  79  90  79 /  20  10  10  30
STT  90  80  90  81 /  30  20  20  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/09





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