Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 230237
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1037 PM AST MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
AND WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY. SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. ACTIVE
WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW AS WAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA.  FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH ONGOING WEATHER SITUATION. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO
FORECAST GRIDS TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE BRINGING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL VFR UNTIL
ABOUT 23/08Z. THEREAFTER...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO START
AFFECTING THE TKPK AND TNCM TERMINALS...THEN TIST AND TISX A FEW
HOURS AFTER THAT AND SO ON AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS BUT LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN PR...IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 23/16Z WHERE TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM AST MON SEP 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TUTT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTH AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 65W CONTINUES TO MOVE
WEST. AS WAVE AXIS CROSSES THE USVI AND PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...A
SHARP INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS ANTICIPATED WITH GFS AND
WRF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER PERSISTENTLY NEAR 2
INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT...WITH FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
BY DAYBREAK. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD TO THE
WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE. AT THIS TIME
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER COULD BE EXPECTED AFTER DAYBREAK THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTING AND GUSTY WINDS.

AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FURTHER WEST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...
THERE IS DEEP MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH AMPLIFYING TUTT AND LOCAL
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE FREQUENT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR BOTH DAYS. FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...TUTT LOCATION WILL WARRANT ABUNDANT DYNAMICAL
FORCING TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EACH DAY.

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY IN AND
AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS TIL 21Z. WX CONDS WILL DETERIORATE LATER
TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE FLYING AREA. LLVL NE WINDS
OF 10-20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 23/00Z...THEN VEERING FM THE
SE ON TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS LIKELY NEAR TSRA.

MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...BOATERS
SHOULD AVOID THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  88  78  88 /  80  80  20  30
STT  79  87  78  88 /  60  60  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

25/71





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