Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KSLC 112213
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
413 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SLOW DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. MOISTURE WILL START TO
INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN UTAH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATED PW OF OVER AN INCH
STILL EXISTS OVER NORTHERN UTAH...WHILE DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. THE DRIER AIR OVER THE SOUTH...COMBINED
WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE...HAS KEPT CONVECTION
QUITE SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. ISOLATED SHOWERS DID MANAGE TO
FORM DUE TO GOOD SURFACE HEATING...BUT AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA...WOULD NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
ACTIVITY THERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO
DECREASE QUITE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA.

AS FAR AS THE EXISTING FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES...SHOWERS APPEAR QUITE
ISOLATED IN ALL BUT THE WASATCH PLATEAU AND BOOK CLIFFS.
HOWEVER...WITH ANY SHOWERS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN...WILL CONTINUE TO LET IT RIDE WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT TO
BURN SCARS AND TO CAPITOL REEF.

MUCH LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY TERRAIN-
BASED WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN BECOMING SMALLER. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BUILD WEST OF UTAH BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW
TO UTAH. THIS WILL PINCH THE MOISTURE FARTHER INTO SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH...WHILE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO
FIRE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE TERRAIN. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT MUCH
LESS ACTIVITY THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND.

THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW ALLOWING SOME
MOISTURE TO ROTATE BACK INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THIS
MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE BRIEF AS A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL
MODELS BECOME OUT OF PHASE AS THE GFS STARTS SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS
BACK TO THE EAST WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT OVER NEVADA.

&&

.AVIATION...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE AT KSLC THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE EVENING.
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE WINDS DEVELOP A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH INTO THE EVENING. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...MOST STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WETTING RAIN. STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT STORMS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD AS
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO UTAH FROM THE SOUTH. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD INTO SUNDAY AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS AND A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND. AND A FURTHER DECREASE IN CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ010-012-013-517.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/SEAMAN/HOSENFELD


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.