Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
FXUS65 KSLC 262149
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
349 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Moisture will remain in place over Utah today. Drier
air will gradually spread into the area from the north over the
weekend and into early next week.
.SHORT TERM (Through 06Z Tuesday)...A relatively moist and unstable
airmass remains over much of the forecast area this afternoon as the
second lobe of a trough rotates through the area. Satellite derived
PWs are in the 0.6 to 0.8 inch range over all but far northwest
Utah. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon and will continue into the evening before decreasing in
coverage. The airmass over the area is still a bit unseasonably
cool, with maxes running up to 5F below seasonal normals,
particularly over southern Utah.
As the last piece of the trough moves by, the flow aloft is progged
to turn to a more west to northwest direction, allowing a drier
airmass to move back in. As a result, convection tomorrow will
generally be confined to southern Utah, becoming more isolated over
central Utah. The drying trend will continue into early next week
with a warming trend as high pressure builds.
.LONG TERM (After 06Z Tuesday)...The ridge over the Rockies
shifts eastward through Monday night and Tuesday, as a large
trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Southerly winds will
become gusty in many locations Tuesday, and this could also be the
warmest day of the week for much of the CWA.
Southerly flow continues over the area Wednesday through Friday,
as the mean trough axis parks over the west coast. This will help
draw deeper moisture into the area from the south, with the best
coverage of storms across northern Utah likely to occur on
Thursday. Models have been trending toward the idea of drier air
moving back into northern Utah on Thursday night and Friday, so
any activity across the north will likely be short-lived, with the
best focus of convection through the latter half of the week
remaining in the southern and eastern portions of the CWA.
.AVIATION...North northwest winds will prevail at the SLC terminal
into the evening hours and are expected to shift to the southeast
between 0200-0400 UTC. However, there is a 20 percent chance that
the switch to southeast winds will be delayed until after 0400 UTC.
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
.FIRE WEATHER...A relatively moist airmass remains over much of the
district this afternoon as the last piece of a weak trough moves
through. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
developing over all but the northwest quarter of the area. The
trough will exit tomorrow, shifting the flow aloft to a more west to
northwest direction tomorrow morning. This will allow drier air to
slowly move back in from the north over the weekend and into early
next week. Moisture may return to the area by the middle of next
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
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