Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 041116
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
401 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR EARLY AUGUST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO
AND GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE.

MARINE LAYER HAS DEEPENED DRAMATICALLY HELPING TO MIX THE MARINE
LAYER, SO PROBABLY WON/T SEE STRATUS MAKE ITS WAY TOO FAR INLAND
INTO THE SACRAMENTO REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

STRONG SHORT-WAVE WILL LIFT OUT FROM THE OFFSHORE TROUGH ACROSS
NORCAL TODAY AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS (PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM) WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER
TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING SHORT-WAVE RIDGING TO BRING A
RETURN OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
LOW APPROACHES LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A RETURN
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY LATE AFTERNOON, MUCH OF
THIS SHOULD BE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA WITH FLAT RIDGING
DEVELOPING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL.

RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY, WITH DRIER, MORE STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SLOWLY DROPS DOWN THE
COAST, BUT THE BULK OF IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH. WHERE
THIS LOW ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF SPLITS OF PART OF THE TROUGH AND SENDS IT SOUTHWARD AS A
LOW SITTING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE THE GFS
GRADUALLY BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW, WITH EITHER POSSIBILITY LIKELY
DELAYING PRECIPITATION INTO MID WEEK. EK

&&

.AVIATION...
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR STRATUS BRINGING
SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN THE DELTA REGION. SW WINDS IN THE DELTA
WILL HAVE PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS TODAY. SOME SMOKE NEAR
WILDFIRES MAY LIMIT VISIBILITY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SOME ISOLATED HIGH
BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY 21Z-03Z,
THOUGH RAINFALL WITH THESE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM. EK

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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