Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KSTO 052104
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
204 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER THIS WEEK WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...SAC VALLEY AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES TOWARDS AND THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
VERY MOIST MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH MODERATE TO SOMETIMES STRONG DELTA BREEZES EXPECTED AT
LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANCES FOR
HIGHER ELEVATION MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY STATING AGAIN ON
MONDAY. AN ISOLATED STORM CANT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT A MUCH QUIETER EVENING TONIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA. AS THE
LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE INTO THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY. CHANCES DEVELOP OVER THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY...MAINLY FOR PLACES NORTH OF I-80. I HAVE INCREASED THE
AREAL COVERAGE FOR CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RESULT. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE COVERAGE AREA AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
AREA. I HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR NOW BUT WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST FORECAST
BASED ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW AND ITS FINAL MOVEMENT THROUGH
THE REGION.

THE DELTA BREEZE CONTINUES TO BLOW MODERATELY BUT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT
LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE THE DELTA BREEZE
WILL REMAIN STRONG ALL NIGHT. IF IT DOES THEN THE SACRAMENTO AREA
MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS ADVECT INTO THE AREA BY MORNING.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST FORECAST
MODELS BRING THE UPPER LOW INLAND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
THURSDAY. REGARDLESS OF TIMING, MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BEFORE WARMING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.

DANG

&&

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT LOCAL MVFR/IFR
NEAR THE DELTA TONIGHT AS MARINE STRATUS RETURNS. SOUTH WINDS
10-15 KT IN THE SAC VLY (NW IN THE SJ VLY) WILL CONTINUE, WITH SW
WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT NEAR THE DELTA.

DANG

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CARQUINEZ STRAIT
AND DELTA.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.