Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 010014
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
414 PM PST MON NOV 30 2015
A few showers are possible through Wednesday over Shasta county.
The next storm system arrives Thursday afternoon with wet and
windy weather. Snow will be likely over the Mountains Thursday
evening with possible travel delays.
Weak disturbance passing through NorCal has brought a few light
showers/sprinkles. This system is weakening rapidly and will
completely dissipate tonight leaving partly/mostly cloudy skies.
Overnight temps will be warmer with readings low to mid 30`s most
Flat ridge will build over the area tue/wed providing dry weather
for most of the areas. The exception Shasta county where moisture
moving over the ridge will keep at least slight shower chances
The next winter storm of the season will move over interior
northern California Thursday afternoon. Timing and strength
difference continue between the euro and gfs models. The euro is
faster bringing moisture in mid-day Thursday...but drier. While
the gfs is slower with precip mostly Thursday night...but much
wetter. Nam is between these two solutions with precip beginning
late afternoon. Have went between euro and gfs with the thinking
more like 18z nam run. Confidence in a solution will likely
increase over the next 24 hours...as nam/sref come into view along
side other models. Snow levels should start out above 6000 feet
Thursday but fall to 4500 feet Thursday night. Rainfall amounts
look to range from 0.25-0.50 valleys to 1.00-1.50 mountains with
6-12 inches of snow above 5000 feet. The fine details will come
more into view in the next 24 hours. Winds will be a bigger impact
with this system as gusts to 45 mph will be possible over the
Sacramento valley with higher gusts near the Sierra crest...local
power outages and down trees may be possible.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
Pacific frontal system moves through Thursday into Friday then
models showing increasing subsidence over Interior NorCal late
Friday into Saturday as upper ridge moves inland. Models differ
Sunday into early next week with track and depth of short wave
troughs. Although confidence low during this time frame, forecast
leans towards the EC/GEM solutions with a deeper system moving
through Sunday followed by another wave Monday.
Mainly VFR conditions with NW winds up to 12 kts through Tuesday.
Scattered sprinkles across northern California should dissipate by