Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 271841
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
241 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A surface low off the Georgia/Florida coast will continue to
influence rain chances this afternoon and evening. Showers and
thunderstorms with the low combined with the East coast sea breeze
will keep the highest rain chances in the eastern third of the CWA.
PoPs will be 20-30% overnight with activity decreasing after
midnight. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s away from the
coast.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The weakness that has been situated over the area the past few
days will wash out as an upper low over the Great Lakes region
slides southeast. The surface low near the Ohio Valley on Friday
will slide to the mid-Atlantic on Saturday with a cold front
pushing across the southeast. Below normal PoPs are expected
Friday (20-30%) but the approaching front should help to enhance
convection on Saturday and thus will continue with above normal
PoPs for Saturday. A strong storm is possible on Saturday. The
front should move into/across the CWA Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night. High temperatures will climb into the mid 90s
tomorrow, but will be limited to the upper 80s to low 90s on
Saturday with the additional cloud coverage and rain. Lows will be
in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The ECMWF hangs the front that moves through late in the short
term across the CWA into early next week while the 12z GFS pushes
it just south of the area. Given the time of year, most likely the
ECMWF solution is more realistic with moisture lingering across
the CWA, particularly the southern half instead of the front
clearing the area. This moisture will begin to lift northward
again mid to late next week with PoPs increasing again.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will mostly be limited to the East
coast sea breeze today so only included TSRA at VLD between 20Z
and 00Z. A few hours of MVFR may be possible at VLD around
sunrise, otherwise VFR will prevail at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front moving into the area Saturday into Saturday night will
help to increase winds and seas Friday and Saturday with exercise
caution winds possible on Saturday. Winds will subside to around
10 knots or less Sunday into next week. Showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day, although the chances are more limited
for tomorrow, Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from high dispersions on Friday afternoon, due to elevated
winds, there are no hazardous fire weather conditions forecast for
the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A cold front will help to enhance typical summertime convection on
Saturday with the front lingering across the southern part of the
area into next week. Overall rainfall amounts of 2 inches or less
are expected through Tuesday morning, however isolated higher
amounts are possible. Widespread flooding is not expected given
amounts and timeframe, however localized ponding of water is
possible with typical heavy rain in the summertime convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  94  75  90  74 /  20  30  10  50  50
Panama City   79  90  79  87  76 /  20  20  10  40  40
Dothan        75  94  74  88  70 /  20  20  20  60  20
Albany        74  95  76  87  71 /  20  20  20  60  20
Valdosta      72  93  75  90  72 /  30  40  10  60  50
Cross City    74  91  75  89  75 /  30  20  10  30  50
Apalachicola  76  91  79  90  77 /  20  20  10  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Weston
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Weston
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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