National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KTAE 290029
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
729 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a ridge from the
Piedmont to the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a relatively cool,
dry airmass in place. Tonight promises to be much like last night,
with lows in the lower to mid 30s and frost in our normally colder
interior locations.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday] Another period of unlimited cigs and
unrestricted Vis is on tap for our area. Light to calm winds over
night will become SE-S 5 to 10 KT Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [334 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
High pressure will slide south over the area on Thursday resulting
in a dry day with seasonal temperatures. A short wave trough will
then pass well north of the region Thursday night. The associated
surface cold front will cross our region Thursday night into
Friday morning. We have maintained a slight chance PoP across the
northern half of the forecast area for Thursday night. By Friday
morning, most of the shower activity should be dissipated. There
will not be much of a temperature drop off after frontal passage
aside from min temps dropping back into the 30s Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
After a dry day on Saturday, two frontal systems will impact the
area from Sunday through Wednesday. The Sunday system will involve
a weak wave of low pressure moving northeast across the Gulf of
Mexico toward the region and a cold front approaching from the
northwest. PoPs have continued to trend slowly upward for Sunday
with some likely PoPs now inching into Coffee County AL dropping
to slight chance in Dixie County FL. Most everyone is under a 50
PoP Sunday night with a cold frontal passage ending rain chances
sometime on Monday. Another area of low pressure will then quickly
develop over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is considerable
spread in the model guidance as to how fast and at what latitude
this system will move eastward. This will have a big impact on
PoPs and wind forecasts from Tuesday into Wednesday, so stay
tuned.


.Marine...
Winds will remain below headline criteria as they veer from the east
to onshore by Thursday as high pressure builds south over the waters.
A cold front will cross the waters Friday morning and briefly
increase winds to cautionary levels west of Apalachicola. We will
then get into a nocturnal pattern of surges to cautionary level
winds Friday and Saturday nights as high pressure strengthens
north of the area and weak low pressure develops in the Gulf of
Mexico. Another cold frontal passage is expected early Monday with
offshore winds remaining at cautionary levels behind it.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.
Dispersion values will be low on Thursday.


.Hydrology...
Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far
Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has
crested just about through Southern Grady County and at Concord. The
river may briefly go above flood stage further downstream at Havana
on Thursday.

The Withlacoochee River has crested at Valdosta and is falling.
The crest values at this site suggest an eventual crest in the
18.5 to 19 foot range at the US-84 gage below Valdosta.

The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday. Although QPF values
are unlikely to result in any additional river flooding, they will
continue to help keep area stream flows above normal as we move into
February.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   32  64  47  64  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Panama City   43  62  52  61  42 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        36  63  46  58  35 /   0   0  20   0   0
Albany        31  61  45  59  33 /   0   0  20   0   0
Valdosta      34  63  46  61  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
Cross City    32  66  45  67  37 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  46  63  51  65  43 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EST tonight for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/WESTON