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000
FXUS62 KTAE 131458
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1058 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 12Z KTAE sounding shows 1000-700 mb winds south at 5-10 kt. This
confirms the forecast of a type 6 sea-breeze regime. PW is up
around 1.84 inches, right at normal. We therefore believe the latest
set of CAM guidance to be a bit low in terms of coverage and the
current forecast reflects that as well. The max temp forecast is
also supported by this morning`s sounding. Overall, little change to
the forecast is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] MVFR cigs persist at DHN, but have scattered
out elsewhere. Another round of IFR cigs is possible tonight,
although the exact locations of those cigs are uncertain at this
time. Scattered afternoon convection is expected once again. The
greatest likelihood of a storm occurring at a terminal would be at
TLH with descending chances at VLD, ECP, DHN and ABY in roughly that
order.

&&

.Prev Discussion [535 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Tonight and Monday....An upper low pivots out of Canada, the axis of
strong long wave trough digs across the Ern states with base to over
TN Valley with weak high pressure SWD from there. This drags a
cold front into the Mid-South region. A surface ridge remains W-E
over Nrn Gulf. Locally steering flow aloft from ELY tonight to
SWLY by Mon aftn. Weak low level flow remains Sly thru period with
area PWATs hovering around 1.8 inches. With upper dynamics/lower
forcing still focused well to our north, precipitation will be
mainly aftn sea breeze driven. Some storms may be strong especially
with any boundary clashes. Will go 10-30% W-E this eve increasing
to 30-40% daytime POPs. Under light steering flow, locally heavy
rain possible. Inland lows in the low 70s, highs in the mid 90s
with heat indices 99 to 103 degrees.

Monday Night and Tuesday...
Upper trough significantly deepens over Ern states down into Gulf
region with shortwave at base shunting high SWD thru Tues. This
likely drags cold front to our Nrn CWA and shunts surface Gulf
ridge into S/Cntrl waters by sundown Tues. Local low level flow
increasingly SWLY ahead of front and shifting to NWLY aloft (which
will push storms SEWD) with PWATs increasing to at least 2 inches.
The combination of increasing upper dynamics, low level forcing
from front and any sea breeze/outflow clashes will make for an
active daytime and beyond and likely more organized storms. Locally
heavy rain and strong to isold severe storms a good bet. Will go
20-30% night increasing to 60-50% N-S (highest closest to front)
daytime POP gradient. Inland lows in the low 70s, highs in the low
90s with heat indices from upper 90s west to 102 to 104 SE Big
Bend.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The beginning of the period will feature an anomalously deep upper
level trough extending from the the Great Lakes states southward
to the TN Valley. This will push a cold front into our area late
on Tuesday into Wednesday with an increased chance of convection.
Some differences emerge in the guidance after Wednesday with some
guidance showing the front moving all the way through with drier
air moving in, while other guidance shows less of a dry push.
Although the trough is unusually deep for July standards, it would
be pretty rare to see a cold frontal passage in July and am a bit
skeptical of the more aggressive guidance, so will keep some
chance of convection going through the period. Mainly seasonal
temperatures are forecast, although Wednesday night could be
cooler across the northern counties if the more aggressive
guidance ends up being correct.


.Marine...
Expect light SW winds and low seas outside of thunderstorms thru
Monday. A cold front will drop south and approach the waters on
Tuesday lingering thru mid week. Winds will shift to west and along
with seas show some increase thru this time.


.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels this
week. No red flag conditions are expected.


.Hydrology...
The overall flood threat is low over the next few days. Rivers
continue to run well below flood stage. As on most summer days,
brief localized flooding is possible in areas with slow moving
thunderstorms. However, large scale flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  73  94  73  91 /  50  20  40  20  50
Panama City   87  78  87  77  87 /  40  10  30  20  50
Dothan        92  73  94  73  91 /  40  10  40  20  60
Albany        93  73  94  73  92 /  30  20  40  20  60
Valdosta      94  71  95  72  93 /  40  20  40  20  60
Cross City    91  72  92  72  91 /  40  30  40  20  40
Apalachicola  86  78  87  77  87 /  40  20  30  20  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY