Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 291942
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep southerly flow is in place over the region today with an upper
low situated on the central Gulf Coast. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expanding early this afternoon with a focus in the
Big Bend of Florida into SW Georgia. Northeasterly low-level flow is
keeping the propagation of the cells very slow, with localized heavy
rain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening.
Activity should diminish this evening, but isolated to scattered
showers will be possible through the overnight hours.
.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
An upper level +PV anomaly will lift from the the Florida Panhandle
coastline toward northeast Georgia and weaken through the day
Sunday. Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
focused east of this anomaly where deep layer steering will remain
southerly, bringing in a plume of warm, moist Gulf air. With
persistent cloud cover, instability will be capped fairly low, with
CAPE around 1000-1300 J/kg, but the 0-6 km wind shear values
tomorrow afternoon will be quite high for August, around 40 kts.
Forcing Sunday will be weak and mostly due to a combination of the
afternoon seabreeze and enhanced divergence aloft. In the lower CAPE-
high shear environment tomorrow, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday will still be focused
on our eastern zones, but with lower shear values, the main threat
will be continued heavy rain. Temperatures will peak in the upper
80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday with lower temperatures to the east
where rain chances and cloud cover are highest. Overnight lows will
stay in the low to mid 70s.
.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Weak high pressure to the east will likely stear the remnants of
Erika north through the eastern Gulf and into our forecast area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds over the waters may increase a bit,
but will remain below tropical storm strength. The main impact
expected to the area is rainfall, particularly over the eastern half
of our forecast area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
gradually lower heading into the weekend. Highs will be in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
[Through 18Z Sunday] Showers and thunderstorms will impact most
terminals through the afternoon before activity wanes this evening.
MVFR conditions will accompany the thunderstorms. IFR conditions
will be possible overnight at the terminals with low cigs and a bit
of fog anticipated.
Winds will approach cautionary levels Monday night through Tuesday
over the eastern coastal waters as the remnants of Erika move
northward. Waves are expected to stay around 1 to 2 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the period with the highest
chances over the eastern waters. Some of these thunderstorms may
produce locally stronger winds and higher waves.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days with high relative humidity values and rain chances.
Rainfall over the next three days will likely add up to totals
around 2-3" across the eastern half of the forecast area, with lower
totals around 1-2" possible to the west. Depending on how the
remnants of Erika track, totals may be even higher, potentially
around 5-7" across eastern portions of our area. Localized flooding
is possible over the next few days east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, but at this time river flooding
potential is low.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 92 73 91 74 / 30 40 20 60 30
Panama City 73 89 75 88 76 / 30 10 10 40 20
Dothan 69 90 70 91 72 / 30 30 10 30 20
Albany 71 90 72 90 72 / 50 50 20 40 20
Valdosta 71 90 71 89 73 / 40 60 20 60 30
Cross City 73 90 74 88 74 / 30 60 30 70 30
Apalachicola 73 89 76 89 77 / 30 20 30 50 30