Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 191932
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
332 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Isolated to scattered showers will diminish with the loss of daytime
heating this evening, giving way to partly cloudy skies and
continued muggy conditions. Given moist boundary layer conditions,
light patchy fog is not out of the question across portions of the
region, particularly in locales that see rainfall this afternoon.
Overnight lows in the low 70s are expected across the region
tonight.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A train of southern stream shortwaves will come crashing into the
Southeast Wednesday and Thursday. These waves will eventually
consolidate as upper-level winds become north-easterly when broad
low pressure forms over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast influenced
by Jose and a northern stream trough. A resultant surface trough
is likely to form across the Southeast and force scattered
convection each afternoon. PoPs will generally hover around 40%,
with highs around 90 degrees.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

While the consolidating shortwave will remain trapped over the
Southeast by Maria, deep-layer dry air will be funneling into the
region from the north/northeast. Thus, PoPs will remain rather low
beginning this weekend, with highs in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

VFR conditions expected through the period, with SCT to BKN CIGS AOB
4K FT. ISO to SCT SHRA currently ongoing across portions of the
region, including in the vicinity of ECP, DHN, and TLH. Brief
reductions in conditions are possible if any of this activity
directly affects the terminals this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will prevail through the remainder of the
week. By the weekend, easterly flow could result in some nocturnal
wind surges at or above 15 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low dispersion values below 20 in the afternoon expected Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons. Patchy fog is possible in the early morning
hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Average rainfall totals over the next several days are expected to
be less than a half of an inch. Area river levels are continuing
to fall across much of the region, and have crested near or in
action stage across the Suwannee. Thus, there are no flooding
concerns over the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  90  71  89  71 /   0  40  20  40  20
Panama City   76  86  74  86  74 /  10  40  20  40  20
Dothan        71  89  71  90  70 /  10  40  20  40  20
Albany        71  90  71  90  70 /   0  20  20  40  20
Valdosta      70  89  71  88  70 /   0  20  20  40  20
Cross City    69  91  70  89  70 /   0  10  10  20  20
Apalachicola  74  87  74  87  74 /   0  30  10  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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