Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 280202
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1002 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...

No significant changes were made to the forecast this evening.
Patchy fog will still be possible, mainly in the Florida
Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period,
although some MVFR VIS was maintained around sunrise at VLD.
Patchy and brief periods of MVFR VIS will be possible at other TAF
sites, but confidence was not high enough to include it. VCSH were
included at ECP tomorrow afternoon for the chance of some isolated
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the Florida Panhandle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [351 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The region will remain on the southern side of an area of high
pressure across Eastern North Carolina overnight. Expect mostly
clear skies through much of the night. With the gradually
increasing low level moisture over the last couple of days,
would not be surprised to see some patchy fog around sunrise on
Saturday, especially in the Florida Panhandle. Overnight
temperatures will continue to be quite mild, generally in the mid
60s.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

A large upper level ridge over the east coast and strong shortwave
trough over the Plains will remain in place through Sunday before
the ridge begins to slowly slide eastward as the trough weakens and
lifts northeastward. he area of low pressure near the Bahamas will
stay well to the east of the local area. There will be slight
chances (20%) for thunderstorms associated with the sea breeze along
the Panhandle, the Big Bend and in south central Georgia this
weekend, but otherwise, it will be quiet and warm. Highs will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The upper level ridge will gradually weaken as it shifts eastward
with another trough developing over the Plains around mid-way
through the week then moving eastward. Chances for thunderstorms
will remain in the 20-30% range through Thursday, with chances
increasing to 30-40% as we approach the weekend. Temperatures will
remain warm next week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and
lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.


.MARINE...

High pressure over the coastal waters will allow for southeasterly
winds around 10 knots for the next several days. Early next week
winds will become westerly around 10 knots. Seas will be 3 feet or
less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

The dry air mass across the region will persist into the weekend,
although relative humidity values will remain above 30 percent. No
red flag conditions are expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

With rivers below action stage and no significant rain the in the
forecast, there are no flooding concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  92  68  92  68 /   0  10  10  10   0
Panama City   69  84  70  87  72 /   0  20  10  10  10
Dothan        66  88  66  91  69 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        66  89  66  90  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      65  91  66  91  68 /   0  10  10  20  10
Cross City    65  90  67  90  68 /   0  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  69  86  69  88  71 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lamers
NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Lamers
HYDROLOGY...Moore


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