Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 300636
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
236 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Water vapor imagery shows a much drier airmass at the mid and upper
levels pushing into the area from the northwest. Although it will
remain fairly moist in the low levels today, this drier air aloft
will allow for a dry day today across most of the area. The one
exception may be across the southeast big bend where deeper moisture
will still be present along with a weak surface trough. Therefore,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could occur there
this afternoon. High temperatures may be tricky this afternoon with
low clouds likely to start the morning. Sometimes these clouds can
hang around longer than guidance indicates, causing highs to end up
lower than MOS. The official forecast went a degree or two lower
than the MAV across most of the area for temperatures.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will mean
drier conditions through Wednesday night. By Thursday, however,
chances for thunderstorms will be on an increase, particularly in
our western zones. An upper level +PV anomaly will deepen the upper
level trough over the Rockies. With enhanced divergence aloft, a
surface low and associated cold front is forecast to develop over
the central Plains and head eastward. This will increase chances for
thunderstorms on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and over
our western zones. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s in
our northern counties to around 70 along the coastline. Highs will
be in the upper 80s.
.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
[Through 06Z Wednesday] Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR
to IFR cigs stretching from DHN to ABY and northward. These cigs are
expected to gradually expand southward through the morning hours.
Although the IFR cigs are expected to become MVFR by late morning to
early afternoon, it may take until the mid to late afternoon for VFR
conditions to return to most of the area.
Weak high pressure at the surface will keep winds light through the
work week. After a frontal passage this weekend, winds will increase
and approach cautionary levels.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
Rainfall over the next week is not expected to be sufficient for any
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 84 69 89 70 89 / 10 10 20 10 30
Panama City 85 71 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 10 40
Dothan 84 66 88 68 88 / 10 0 10 10 30
Albany 83 66 89 68 88 / 10 0 10 10 20
Valdosta 83 67 88 67 88 / 20 10 20 10 20
Cross City 85 69 88 68 88 / 30 20 30 20 30
Apalachicola 83 72 86 73 85 / 20 10 20 10 30