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190
FXUS62 KTAE 281320
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
920 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.UPDATE...

Made slight adjustment to PoPs, mainly in the 12z-18z timeframe
for increasing convection over the local waters and coastal areas.
Otherwise, forecast looks good.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [632 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Cold front is located to our north and west across southern Alabama
and central Georgia. The front won`t make much headway today and
will have to wait on reinforcing high pressure tonight and Thursday.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms (40-60%) this afternoon
will favor along and east of Albany to Panama City line. High
temperatures will make it to around 90 degrees most places. Where
there will be more clouds than sun (Florida Big Bend), nudged high
temperatures down a degree or two in line with MOS guidance and
still higher than local CAMs.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

A strong +PV anomaly aloft of the Great Lakes will slide southward
into the Ohio Valley, pushing through our first cold front of the
season. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will taper off from
northwest to southeast tonight through Thursday morning, with skies
clearing beginning to cool Thursday afternoon. Noticeably colder
temperatures are expected Thursday night with forecast lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s across the forecast area. Friday will be dry
with highs in the low to mid 80s.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The reprieve from the heat may be short lived. Model guidance shows
the upper level support for the system stalling over the Ohio Valley
this weekend, then lifting north-northeastward through early next
week. The low level response will be very similar with the frontal
system stalling just to our east this weekend, then regressing
northward early next week. Northwestern portions of the area are
likely to remain dry through the period, but 30-40% chances for
showers and thunderstorms will creep into the FL Big Bend and south
central GA Monday and Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s with
lows in the mid to upper 60s.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...

A weak cold front stretches from northern Georgia southwestward
to southern Alabama. A shortwave trough will traverse the southern
states and northern Gulf of Mexico today and aid in shower and
thunderstorm development. The better chances will be across
southwest Georgia and Florida panhandle as the higher resolution
models depict some drier air infiltrating southeast Alabama this
afternoon. TAFs will largely remain unchanged and convection favor
TLH/VLD. Rain chances decrease after sunset with predominate VFR.


.MARINE...

A cold front will move through the coastal waters Thursday with a
brief surge in northerly winds behind the front Thursday night.
Winds are expected to peak around 15 to 20 knots, but fall below
cautionary levels on Friday. Seas will peak around 2 to 3 feet.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Another day of good rain chances is anticipated today across
southwestern Georgia and the Florida panhandle. A cold front will
move through the area tonight and Thursday which will effectively
end the rain chances for the tri-state region heading into the
weekend. Other than high dispersion rates Thursday afternoon across
most of the area, there are no fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall totals from the frontal passage are expected to be around
an inch or less, which will not cause flooding issues on our area
rivers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   89  68  89  62  83 /  50  20  10   0   0
Panama City   86  72  86  66  80 /  40  10   0   0   0
Dothan        89  62  85  57  80 /  20  10   0   0   0
Albany        89  65  87  58  81 /  40  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      89  69  88  60  84 /  40  20  10   0   0
Cross City    86  72  87  65  85 /  50  30  30   0   0
Apalachicola  86  72  87  66  82 /  50  20  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barry
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Moore