Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 011408
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
908 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a strong ridge along
the Piedmont, a decaying, quasi-stationary front from just off the
SC coast through north FL, and a developing frontal system across
MS. The KTAE sounding showed a nearly-saturated layer from the surface
to 850 mb. The 06 UTC GFS forecasts weak isentropic lift at the
295 K and 300 K levels throughout the day, though recent radar
trends suggest that this lift is probably too weak to support much
rain, and we are only forecasting a slight chance of rain today.

The preponderance of NWP guidance (including MOS, HRRR, LAMP,
SREF, etc.) forecast the low clouds to remain over our region all
day, which will of course affect our high temperature forecast. We
expect highs to range from the mid to upper 50s across most of our
region, except mid 60s around Cross City where there could be a
few breaks in the overcast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] Judging from the deep moist layer below 10k
ft in the 12 UTC KTAE sounding, as well as the latest NWP
guidance, the low ceilings this morning are likely to remain
throughout today and tonight. We expect IFR to LIFR cigs today and
overnight. MVFR Vis is likely as well, except for periods of IFR
Vis this morning. IFR Vis is likely to return overnight. Light NE
winds (generally less than 10 KT) will be the rule through
tonight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [325 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Southerly flow becomes more established at the surface along with
a building mid/upper ridge centered over the southern GOMEX. A weak
impulse will pass to the north of the area allowing for only a
slight chance of showers across our northern areas. Though mostly
cloudy skies are expected, the building ridge and southerly flow
will help push afternoon temps into the 70s for both days.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The upper ridging shifts east on Wednesday with showers and
possibly thunderstorms spreading across the local region in
advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass
through on Thursday stalling over or just south of our coastal
waters on Friday. This boundary may bring more rain to the region
over the weekend as the next impulse translates across Texas and
then the Gulf coastal states. Temps will be above seasonal levels
with highs in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday with below normal
temps thereafter.


.Marine...

Borderline advisory conditions will continue through daybreak
this morning before quickly diminishing as high pressure weakens
across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low seas are
expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore flow will
increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly shift
offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory conditions are
likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days. Lowering inversion heights (and thus, mixing heights) today
will limit smoke dispersion below normal daytime levels. Over the
following few nights, some fog is likely and some areas of dense fog
will be possible. The fog potential is likely to contribute to
elevated LVORI values over much of the area.


.Hydrology...

Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and
Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the
forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee
River at Valdosta early tomorrow.

No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no
additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  54  76  58  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
Panama City   61  55  69  59  70 /  10  10  20  10  10
Dothan        56  51  72  58  77 /  20  10  20  20  20
Albany        54  49  71  57  77 /  30  10  20  20  20
Valdosta      57  53  76  58  77 /  30  10  10  10  10
Cross City    64  56  78  59  77 /  20   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  61  57  69  60  71 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







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