Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 221832
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
232 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The upper low has moved to a position near Mobile this afternoon.
At the surface, a stationary front meandered across our SE AL
zones eastward to near Brunswick. A weak low can be seen spinning
on visible satellite imagery near Albany. Surprisingly as of 18z,
only isolated to scattered convection has developed so far. The
most concentrated area was currently along the sea breeze in the
Florida Panhandle. This activity will quickly diminish shortly
after sunset with skies becoming partly cloudy overnight. Patchy
fog will once again develop especially in and around the Valdosta
region and areas that receive rain. Lows will be around 70 to the
lower 70s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
The period commences aloft with Wrn Atlc ridge building Wwd into the
local area. In response, mid-upper level low over Ern LA Wed will
continue to retrograde WWD along the Gulf coast and eventually get
sheared out near coastal Louisiana or Ern TX by Thursday. This will
allow another trough to begin to dig into the region from the NW
which could provide some additional large scale forcing for storms.
At surface, Wwd progression of upper ridge allows surface reflection
to also build Wwd across Cntrl Gulf of Mex. All this increases local
flow and shifts it to more WLY (Wed) then WSW (Thurs) sfc-mid levels
with PWATs dropping to around 1.5-1.7 inches or closer to seasonal
norms. With drier air moving especially on Wed, POPs will be below
climo but enough moisture and instability exists with diurnal
Gulf seabreeze for 20-30% W-E Wed and 30-40% Thurs. Weak steering
flow would favor heavy rain with any boundary clashes. Temperatures
should be warmer than in recent days, with highs in the mid 90s
likely, a little higher on Wed. Lows in the low-mid 70s.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
The region will be dominated by high pressure at the sfc and an
upper level ridge through Sunday. As a result, expect only a slight
chance for afternoon/evening rain and thunderstorms. Late Monday an
upper level trough moves in and increases afternoon/evening precip
chances for the remainder of the forecast period. A stationary
boundary is expected to linger over the area Tuesday and Wednesday.
In addition to the increased rain chance expect abundant cloud
cover. Expect lows in the lower 70s and highs in the lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] Scattered showers and TSTMS will continue
to develop through the remainder of the afternoon and may briefly
impact each terminal. After the convection diminishes this
evening, patchy fog will develop with with the best chance of
occurring at the VLD terminal. Went with prevailing MVFR vsby at
VLD after 09z.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas should be relatively calm during the period, winds
generally 10 knots or less and seas generally 2 feet or less.

&&

.Fire Weather...
High dispersion values are forecast across the Florida zones
Wednesday afternoon and the entire tri-stare region on Thursday.
Aside from the high dispersion, there are no fire weather concerns
for the remainder of the week.

&&

.Hydrology...
The Shoal River at Mossy Head briefly approached flood stage
early yesterday morning, but the river levels are now falling.
There will likely be some heavy rain rates today, and the storm
motion will be unusually slow (around 5 kt). This would suggest at
least some potential for flooding. However, there appears to be
one negative factor that will keep the risk of flooding rather
low- the influx of dry air aloft from the south and west. This
should help dampen deep moist convection somewhat, preventing
updrafts from persisting over any one location for too long. We
think the probability of exceeding local flash flood guidance
today is about 5% (within 25mi of a point), which is not high
enough for a watch.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   71  95  74  94  73 /  10  30  20  40  20
Panama City   75  90  76  89  77 /  10  20  20  30  20
Dothan        72  93  73  93  73 /  20  20  20  40  20
Albany        72  94  73  94  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
Valdosta      70  96  72  94  73 /  20  30  30  40  20
Cross City    70  94  73  93  73 /  10  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  74  88  76  88  77 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for Coastal
     Bay.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS





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