Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 202003
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
303 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

As expected, light scattered showers have developed across portions
of the Wiregrass and even into the Florida Big Bend at this hour.
Expect this activity to move northward, yielding very light rainfall
accumulations across these areas. The overall synoptic pattern will
remain stagnant through the period, as the region will remain
situated on the western periphery of deep layer high pressure. This
will keep muggy conditions in place through the evening and
overnight hours, with low clouds and patchy areas of fog -
particularly in areas that see any shower activity this afternoon.
Mostly cloudy conditions will keep low temperatures in the mid 60s
tonight.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will prevail through the short term with little
to no chance for measurable rain. Though rain is not expected,
cloudy conditions are forecast Wednesday and at least part of
Thursday. High temperatures will continue to run well above
average, with records being threatened each day this week.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Deep layer ridging will prevail through the end of the week and
possibly into Saturday. Then, a pattern shift will occur as a
shortwave moves through the Mississippi Valley and Midwest. A cold
front will drop into the Tri-State region by the end of the
weekend, bringing our best chance for rain in quite some time.
Rain chances will continue through mid-week as the tail end of the
front stalls out across the Gulf coast. While still expected to be
above average, highs will run a few degrees closer to normal once
the ridge breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

Conditions have improved to VFR at all TAF sites. Breezy southeasterly
winds expected to continue around 10kts, with occasional gusts to
20kts. Scattered SHRA is expected to develop near ECP and DHN
this afternoon, but confidence is low in any activity continually
directly affecting these terminals. Reduced vsbys and CIGS
expected again tonight, with at least MVFR to IFR conditions
possible.

&&

.MARINE...

Easterly winds are forecast to remain just below Cautionary
conditions through the end of the week, with little to no chance
for rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RHs will remain well above critical thresholds through this weekend,
precluding any hazardous fire weather risk through this period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

All area rivers are below flood stage with falling or steady
water levels. Measurable rain is not expected until late this
weekend, and even then, current estimates through 7 days are for a
half inch or less.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   65  83  63  84  62 /  20  10  10   0   0
Panama City   66  77  65  77  64 /  10  10   0   0   0
Dothan        65  83  64  84  62 /  20  20  10   0   0
Albany        65  82  64  83  62 /  30  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      65  83  64  83  62 /  20  10  10   0   0
Cross City    65  86  64  83  64 /  10  10   0  10  10
Apalachicola  65  76  65  75  64 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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