Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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679
FXUS65 KTFX 062316
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
520 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A COOLER AIRMASS IS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW LINGERING INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CONTINUE BUT WILL GRADUALLY END BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
CIRCULATION AROUND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN MONTANA SATURDAY. IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SATURDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE TO THE POINT
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL BE THE DOMINATE INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER
NEXT WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FORM
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS BY WEDNESDAY LEAVING MONTANA BENEATH A
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERING BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY, MODELS ARE IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH DETAILS BUT IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
THE PRIMARY DAKOTAS LOW BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2320Z.

UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW US WILL DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS MAINTAINING AND EASTERLY COMPONENT TO WINDS ALOFT,
PARTICULARLY OVER SW MT. DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO
THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES NOW FROM KCTB TO KHVR SPREADING SOUTH TO
KGTF AND KLWT BY SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SW MT THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM N TO S TONIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS SATURDAY, THOUGH SOME
BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD-COVER MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS SW MT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM AB S INTO N-
CENTRAL MT WILL EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR CONTINUED EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. HOENISCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  73  45  77 /  10   0   0  20
CTB  38  72  43  74 /   0   0   0  20
HLN  42  75  45  77 /  20  10   0  30
BZN  41  68  40  75 /  20  10  10  20
WEY  39  58  36  63 /  40  50  20  40
DLN  42  67  41  72 /  30  30  20  40
HVR  39  75  44  80 /   0   0   0  10
LWT  40  70  43  76 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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