Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 312006
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
206 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Thursday...Stacked surface-upper level low centered
over ND this afternoon will slowly lift out to the NE tonight
through Wednesday while a ridge of high pressure, currently
extending N through the Pacific NW, drifts east across the
Northern Rockies and MT. Drier air moving in from the west will
bring clearing skies tonight and diminishing winds as the surface
pressure gradient across the region relaxes. Dry and sunny
conditions are expected across the entire area Wednesday with
temperatures climbing to 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. By
Thursday, shortwave energy from the Eastern Pacific will move
through Western Canada with some trailing shortwave and upper
level jet energy moving east across the Northern Rockies and MT.
This will temporarily flatten the ridge and bring a small threat
for afternoon convective showers/thunderstorms, primarily to SW MT
on Thursday as well as breezy west winds to much of the area.
Hoenisch

Thursday Night through Tuesday...Dry and warm conditions will be the
rule during this period. However, a weakening cold front may trigger
a few rain showers across the northeastern corner of the CWA
Thursday night. Otherwise, a broad upper ridge builds over the area
Friday and will persist through the weekend. By Monday, weak short
wave energy moving over the west coast will create isolated
afternoon thunderstorms across portions of southwest Montana. As the
short wave pushes farther east on Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms
will develop over a greater areal extent, but again, mainly over
southwest Montana. Temperatures will likely be 10 to 15 degrees
above seasonal averages through the weekend period, though readings
will be cooler across southwest Montana to start the new week.
Emanuel/Jaszka

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1730Z.
Moist NW flow aloft around an upper level low moving across ND will
maintain low clouds, occasional showers and MVFR/IFR conditions at
KLWT and KHVR terminals through this afternoon. Further west,
scattered cloud deck with bases at 7000-9000 ft MSL may become
broken for a period leading to some mtn top obscuration but VFR
conditions will prevail. Drier air moves in from the west by this
evening for partial clearing and improvement to ceilings with vfr
conditions continuing thereafter into Wednesday morning. Hoenisch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  42  76  50  75 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  40  74  49  69 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  44  78  50  78 /   0  10  10  10
BZN  38  76  46  79 /   0   0  10  20
WEY  34  66  41  70 /   0  20  10  20
DLN  39  75  47  77 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  41  74  48  77 /  10   0   0  10
LWT  40  72  49  74 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


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