Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 161116

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
416 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

Northwest upper flow continues across the northern plains...but is
becoming more westerly this morning as an upper trough crosses the
western CONUS. Forcing ahead of this wave will result in snow
developing across Wyoming over the next few hours. This snow will
develop eastward into northeast Wyoming this morning...and into the
Black Hills late this morning into the afternoon hours. Models are
showing generally 1 to 3 inches of snow across these areas...with
the maximum of 4 inches across southern Campbell. Generally 2 or 3
inches of snow...possibly up to 4 expected across the
Black Hills, but this will be more spread out over 18 hours or
so. Not planning on expanding the current advisory. Aside from
some lingering snow showers, drier weather is expected Sunday as
the main trough axis crosses the CWA. Warm air advection will
develop with highs reaching the 40s to mid 50s by Monday and
continuing through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the region
sometime late Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing colder air
to the area. This system will also bring good chances of snow to a
wide area...though QPF amounts won`t be very high. At this time
it looks like 1 to 3 inches of snow is what most areas will
receive. Cooler than average temperatures are expected to continue
through the rest of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued At 414 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

Conditions will rapidly deteriorate across northeastern Wyoming
and far western South Dakota this morning with IFR conditions due
to low stratus and -SN. These conditions will persist through
Saturday evening. Across central SD, mainly VFR conditions
expected through 15z this morning, transitioning to areas of MVFR
CIGS with -RASN possible into Saturday evening.


WY...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for WYZ055.



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