Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 050513
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1013 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

CURRENTLY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG 180KT JET AT 300MB OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
PLACES THE CWA IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION...PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN SD AND NE WYOMING. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HAVE HELPED TO INSTIGATE
SOME SHALLOW CUMULUS OVER WESTERN SD...AND WHILE THERE ARE WEAK
RADAR ECHOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUMULUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO A WIDE T/TD SPREAD.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TODAY. STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AS A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. TEMPERATURES MAY
STEADILY RISE OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND WESTERN SD
DUE TO THE WSW FLOW AND STRONG WAA. IN FACT...700MB AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TOMORROW THAN
TODAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS AND 20S FOR
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 159 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY AND MILD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE
DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...10






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