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000
FXUS65 KVEF 200352
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
852 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY PERIODS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS LESSEN SOME
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...THE 00Z LAS VEGAS SOUNDING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE
FROM 12Z IN SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 700 MB AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTED UP
THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHOW
A NOTICEABLE INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY OFF
THE OREGON COAST SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN IN THE BASE OF THE
BROAD PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THESE TRENDS
COVERED AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
230 PM PDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS TODAY AS COOLER AIR DID WORK INTO
THE AREA BEHIND A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 9 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. WIND ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY HAVE BECOME VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING NORTHERLY SHIFT THIS MORNING.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BROAD TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ENCOMPASS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST SATURDAY. PERSISTENT DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS FOCUSED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY. AS WE APPROACH THE SUMMER SOLSTICE TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT WARM TO NEAR NORMAL
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DESERTS OF SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE AS THIS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THE FLOW CAN TURN MORE
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND PROVIDE ANY INCREASE IN LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST POSITIONING OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INFLUX IN MOISTURE
LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FLOW DRY. AT THIS
POINT HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH THE EVENING THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
12Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 18Z PRIOR TO THE WINDS KICKING AROUND
THE SOUTHWEST. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN GENERAL THIS EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW
KTS STRONGER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND SIMILAR ELSEWHERE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY CLEAR.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS. THE
AREA OF MOST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY DUE TO WINDS AND VERY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THURSDAY
THAN TODAY WITH A MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ102.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...PIERCE/CZYZYK

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