Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 221558
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
858 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN STATES.
&&

.UPDATE...WEAK RIDGING TODAY WILL LEAD TO SUNNY SKIES WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WINDS. UPDATES NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. -HARRISON-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
232 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE
IN STORE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW PULLING AWAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY WITH INCREASINGLY DRY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN AMPLIFY FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UP ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
EXTENDED WITH REGARDS TO HOW MODELS WANT TO HANDLE AN APPROACHING
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.  THE ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE WETTER AND
SLOWER THAN THE GFS...MAINTAINING WIDESPREAD PRECIP PROBABILITIES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS MOST OF THE PRECIP
EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORS, HAVE A SLIGHT PREFERENCE FOR THE ECMWF GUIDANCE AND
TRENDED POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARDS ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT THRU SUNDAY PERIOD.

OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION DETAILS...TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY
BE QUITE WARM THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY HIGH HEIGHTS AND DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING THE FIRST
TASTE OF FALL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS LIKELY WILL FAVOR AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH SPEEDS OCCASIONALLY
APPROACHING 10 KTS. CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TUESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR THROUGH MID-WEEK UNDER A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR DIURNAL PATTERNS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ADAIR
LONG TERM...OUTLER

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