Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 300031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Apr 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity declined to very low levels due to a few B-class flares
from Regions 2535 (N06E02, Cao/Beta) and 2537 (S09W77, Dso/Beta). Region
2535 exhibited some trailer spot decay while Region 2537 showed some
intermediate spot decay. Regions 2536 (N16E16, Dai/Beta) and 2539
(N17E52, Cao/Beta) indicated intermediate and leader spot development,
respectively. The remaining regions were quiet and stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares all three days of the period (30 Apr - 02 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal to moderate
levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal
levels on days one and two (30 Apr-01 May) due to electron
redistribution from expected CIR and CME effects. By day three (02 May),
electron flux levels are expected to rise to moderate to high levels due
to an enhanced solar wind field. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected
nominal solar wind conditions. Solar wind speeds were in decline,
beginning the period around 400 km/s while slowly decreasing to about
350 km/s by the periods end. Total magnetic field strength ranged
between 3-6 nT while the Bz component was mostly northward to +5 nT
through the period. Phi angle orientation remained in a predominately
positive sector with a brief negative incursion between 29/1800-1850
UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are likely to become enhanced early on day one (30
Apr) as an anticipated CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS is
expected to become geoeffective. Enhancements in the solar wind are
likely to persist into day two (01 May). An additional enhancement is
possible on day two as the periphery of the 28 Apr CME passes by Earth.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.

.Forecast...
Early on day one (30 Apr), the geomagnetic field is expected to be at
active to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due to the onset of a CIR ahead
of a positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are
expected for the latter part of day one into day two (01 May) as CH HSS
effects continue coupled with the possible influences from the periphery
of the 28 Apr CME. By day three (02 May), mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected as CH HSS and CME effects wane.


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