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FXXX12 KWNP 231231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Nov 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. There were three numbered regions on
the visible disk, each contributing to the overall flare count. Region
2209 (S13W51, Fko/beta-gamma-delta) displayed minor growth in its
intermediate spots, just south of the main leader, and maintained its
delta configuration in the large trailer. It produced three C-class
flares, including a C3 flare at 22/1713 UTC, one of largest events of
the period. Region 2216 (S15E34, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) developed a weak
delta configuration in its northern most intermediate spots, while
continuing to exhibit slight separation overall, yet only managed to
produce a single C2 flare at 22/1441 UTC. New Region 2217 (S20E73,
Hax/alpha) rotated onto the visible disk with only one large spot
visible, appearing as an H-type group. This region produced three
C-class flares as well, including a C3 flare at 23/1053 UTC, also one of
largest events of the period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
were observed.

Moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a chance for an
X-class flare (R3/Strong or greater) during the period (23-25 Nov).
Regions 2209 and 2216 continue to be the most likely sources for
significant flare production.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels for the forecast period (23-25 Nov). There is a
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above
the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold over the next three days
due to potential significant flare activity from Regions 2209 and 2216.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be slightly enhanced through the
period, likely under weak coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
influence. Solar wind speeds began the period near 360 km/s, but began a
gradual, yet unsteady climb just after the beginning of the new UT day.
Speeds reached a peak of 477 km/s at 23/0351 UTC, and averaged near 410
km/s for the second half of the period. Total field varied slightly
between 5 nT and 9 nT, while the Bz component was variable between +5 nT
and -7 nT.  Phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive (away) sector.

Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced for the
remainder of day one (23 Nov), but should begin to decline by day two
(24 Nov) as weak CH HSS influence diminishes. A return to nominal solar
wind conditions is expected by day three (25 Nov).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
active period from 22/2100-2400 UTC. The elevated conditions were likely
caused by a prolonged period of negative Bz.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated active periods possible on day one (23 Nov), continuing
into day two (24 Nov), with a return to mostly quiet conditions by day
three (25 Nov). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.