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FXXX12 KWNP 281231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Nov 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels through the period with Region 2222
(S20E50, Ehc/beta-gamma) producing the majority of the C-class activity.
This region produced the largest flare of the period; a C7/Sf flare at
28/0040 UTC.  Slight to moderate growth was observed in Region 2222 as
it continued to rotate onto the disk.

Slight elongation was noted in Region 2219 (N04W28, Eai/beta-gamma).
Region 2221 (N04E49, Dac/beta-gamma) indicated overall growth in area,
particularly in its intermediate spots, and developed some mixed
magnetic polarity within the leader portion of the group.  New Region
2224 (S24E35, Bxo/beta) developed on the disk this period.  The
remaining regions were stable and indicated little change.

Other activity consisted of a C2 x-ray event recorded at 28/0422 UTC.
The event was associated with a filament eruption observed in GONG and
SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery between 28/0415-0500 UTC.  The 8 degree long
filament was centered near S18E42, to the NW of Regions 2222 and 2224,
and was observed lifting off the SE portion of the disk.  No coronagraph
data was available at the time of this report to determine if there was
an associated CME.  Further analysis is ongoing.

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with an increasing chance
for an M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) during the period (28-30
Nov), particularly from Regions 2219, 2221 and 2222.  This is based on
these three regions magnetic complexity and steady growth.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 744 pfu observed at
27/1615 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels for the forecast period (28-30 Nov).  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels
(Below S1-Minor) for the forecast period (28-30 Nov).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated a nominal solar environment.  Total
field ranged from 4 nT to 11 nT while the Bz component was variable
between +10 nT and -7 nT.  Wind speed averaged about 360 km/s with a
peak of 430 km/s at 27/1938 UTC.  The phi angle was in a predominately
negative (towards) sector with some positive (away) variability between
27/1200-1720 UTC.

Solar wind parameters are expected to stay at nominal levels through the
forecast period (28-30 Nov).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels (Below
G1-Minor) for the forecast period (28-30 Nov). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.