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FXXX12 KWNP 020032

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2376 (N13E46, Eai/beta-gamma)
changed little during the period and despite the magnetic mixing within
its trailer spots, remained relatively stable until 01/2251 UTC when it
produced a C1 flare. Region 2373 (N16E29, Dso/beta) underwent some
growth in its intermediate spots but was inactive. Region 2375 (S09E44,
Hsx/alpha) was unchanged and stable.

An active prominence along the NE limb erupted between 01/1600-1700 UTC
as observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Most material appeared to be
reabsorbed and any eruptive material appeared to eject well north and
east of the Earth orbital plane.

Surging was noted beyond the SW limb in SDO/AIA 304 imagery around
01/1430 UTC that was likely associated with a slight rise in 10 MeV
proton flux above background levels. Additionally, this surging appeared
to result in a coronal mass ejection (CME) from just beyond the west
limb, first noted in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 01/1436 UTC. Further
analysis will be conducted once enough coronagraph imagery is available
to determine the likelihood of any Earth-directed component.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity for days one through three (02 -
04 Jul) primarily due to the higher flare potential of Region 2376.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 5,950 pfu observed at 01/1515 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux saw a slight enhancement above background levels
beginning around 01/1700 UTC, to about 3 pfu by 01/1905 UTC. This rise
in flux was likely due to the activity beyond the SW limb discussed in
the solar activity section of this report.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at moderate
to high levels over the next three days (02 - 04 Jul). 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to trend down to background levels over day one through
three (02 - 04 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters started the period under ambient conditions. Solar
wind speeds were around 370 km/s until around 01/0700 UTC, after which
they began to trend up to 420 km/s. Temperature increased in sync with
speeds, density remained relatively low, and Phi was entirely positive
through the period. Total magnetic field saw no significant enhancement
above 6 nT and Bz was variable throughout the period with a maximum
southward deviation of -4 nT. The slight rise in solar wind speed was
possibly a result of the anticipated weak positive polarity coronal hole
high speed stream.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mostly nominal on days one
through three (02 - 04 Jul). The minor enhancement seen on ACE is likely
from the small positive coronal hole and is expected to subside back to
ambient conditions early on day one (02 Jul).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet throughout the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one through
three (02 - 04 Jul). Isolated periods of unsettled activity are possible
in response to a small positive polarity coronal hole early on day one
(02 Jul). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.