368
FXXX12 KWNP 091231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was at high levels with background flux at or near M1.0.
Region 3664 (S19W31, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) continued to grow and
eventually merged with Region 3668 (S15W21). This new combined spot
group will maintain the 3664 region designation, and is now over 1,500
millionths in size. AR 3664 produced many M-class flares and two X-class
flares in the past 24-36 hours. Within that activity, three halo CMEs
were associated with expected arrivals on late 10 to early 11 May. A
fourth halo CME associated with the X2.2/3B flare is visible in STEREO
imagery. LASCO coronagraph imagery has yet to update to further analyze
this event.

Region 3663 (N26W77, Fkc/beta-gamma) exhibited signs of decay as it
approached the western limb, and appears to be losing its delta
configuration. However, this region continued to produce optical flares,
radio bursts, and an isolated M-class flare. The remaining spotted
active regions were stable and inactive.

Other activity included an approximately 35 long filament that erupted,
centered near E27N18, with an associated CME, mostly moving in a
northeasterly direction. Analysis and modeling of this event determined
a possible Earth-directed component with similar timing to the halo CMEs
mentioned above.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to persist at high to very high levels over
09-11 May, with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected and
X-class flares (R3/Strong) likely, due to the continued flare potential
of Region 3663 and especially Region 3664.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 09-11 May. There is a chance for the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 09-11 May
due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment reflected near-background conditions, with
the exception of slightly elevated solar wind speeds, likely attributed
to residual CH HSS influence. Total field strength was steady near 3
nT, the Bz component had no significant southward deflections, Phi
remained in a positive orientation, and solar wind speeds averaged near
470 km/s.

.Forecast...
Possible enhancements in the solar wind environment are likely on 09
May, following the anticipated glancing effects of a CME that departed
the Sun on 06 May. Late on 10 May and into 11 May, stronger enhancements
are likely as the two CMEs that departed the Sun on 08 May are
anticipated to arrive at Earth.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Mid to late day on 09 May, unsettled to active conditions are possible
as glancing effects from a CME that departed the Sun on 06 May are
anticipated to influence Earth. By late on 10 May, the two halo CMEs
from 8 May are anticipated to arrive at Earth, increasing the
geomagnetic response to G1 (Minor) storm levels. Early on 11 May,
conditions are likely to reach G3 (Strong) storm levels as the bulk of
four CMEs moves past Earth. While confidence in timing is fairly high,
confidence in magnitude/strength of the geomagnetic response to the CME
arrival is low to moderate.