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FXXX12 KWNP 221231

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 2241 (S10W39,
Ehc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1 flare at 21/1217 UTC and Region
2242 (S18W63, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1/1f at 22/0149 UTC.
Region 2242 also produced several notable C-class events. Both Regions
2241 and 2242 exhibited penumbral decay within its intermediate and
trailing areas. All other regions on the disk were relatively quiet and
stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels with a chance for further X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater)
for the next three days (22-24 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242 remain
large and magnetically complex.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels reaching a max flux of 400 pfu at 21/1915 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced at 2-3
pfu, however it remained well below the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (22-24 Dec). There is a chance
for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the potential
for significant flare activity from Regions 2241 or 2242.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The ACE satellite observed the second of a pair of discontinuities in
the solar wind field during the past 24 hours. At about 21/1824 UTC,
total field increased sharply from 9 nT to 17 nT while the Bz
component dipped southward to -13 nT. Wind speeds increased from
approximately 350 km/s to about 450 km/s. Subsequent increases were
also observed in density and temperature. This likely marked the arrival
of the 18 Dec CME.

ACE/EPAM lower energy particle measurements rose through the period and
peaked at about 21/1900 UTC and remained steady through the remainder of
the period. Phi angle was in a mostly positive (away) sector.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remained enhanced through early on
day one (22 Dec) with the effects of the 18 Dec CME. Solar wind
characteristics are expected to reflect the waning influence of the CME
on day two (23 Dec) into day three (24 Dec) followed by the growing
influence of a weak, negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels with
isolated high latitude major storm periods.

The geomagnetic field is expected remain at unsettled to isolated minor
storm levels (G1-Minor) through early on day one (22 Dec). Unsettled to
active levels are expected to persist through the remainder of 22
Dec. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three
(23-24 Dec) as a weak, negative CH HSS moves into a geoeffective
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