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FXXX12 KWNP 281230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jul 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and no significant sunspot activity was
observed this period.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels through days
one and two (28-29 Jul).  Solar activity is expected to increase to a
chance for C-class flares on day three (30 Jul) due to the anticipated
return of old active Region 2665 (S06, L=115).  On its previous disk
transit, the region produced a pair of M-class (R1-Minor) flares and
numerous C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 16,547 pfu observed at 27/1605 UTC.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at near-background levels throughout
the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
each of the next three days (28-30 Jul) and the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS.  Solar wind speed held steady at an average speed of
about 450 km/s, but briefly spiked to 492 km/s late in the period.
Total field strength values ranged between 1-5 nT while the Bz component
varied between +/- 5 nT.  Phi remained in a predominately positive
orientation throughout the period.

Solar wind parameters are expected to slowly return to background levels
over the next three days (28-30 Jul) as CH HSS influence subsides and a
nominal solar wind regime prevails.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one
(28 Jul) with generally quiet conditions expected on days two and three
(29-30 Jul). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.