Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 031846

National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
February 3, 2017 (Additional Info)

                       FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

Great Salt Lake, Sevier, Virgin and Price/San Rafael and Duchesne
River Basins.

The 2017 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is elevated at
this time for the Bear, Weber, Provo, Duchesne river basins.

January precipitation values were between 190-290 percent of average. Snowpacks
in Utah are much above average and range from 160-310 percent of median across
the state. Many of Utah`s SNOTEL`s are currently ranked in the top 3 highest years
for the period of record. Additionally many stations such as Ben Lomond Peak,
Strawberry Daniels and Current Creek (just to name a few) are already well above
the normal seasonal peak snow value that we typically expect in mid April. Much
above average precipitation and below average temperature during the month of
January and the corresponding large increase in volumetric forecast have significantly
increased the flood potential for spring 2017.

It should be emphasized that snow accumulation conditions are susceptible to change
before the spring runoff begins. Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of
snowmelt runoff and consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also
roughly correspond to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that
an extended period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the
melt period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year but especially in
much above average years like this one.

CBRFC/B.Bernard, A.Nielson, T. Cox


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