Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 212048
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

VALID 231200Z - 291200Z

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GENERALLY PROGRESS EWD THROUGH
FRIDAY /D5/.  AS A RESULT...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES WILL DEAMPLIFY LEADING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS.  THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL INFLUENCE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

...DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES AS
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
/D3/.  ALTHOUGH PW VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL /AROUND 0.75 INCH/ FOR
DRY THUNDERSTORMS...RELATIVELY DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

...STRONG WIND/LOW RH POTENTIAL...
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND CORRESPONDING
SURFACE FRONT...SURFACE WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY /D3/
IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS.  GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LIGHTNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THE
INCREASE IN WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY /ESPECIALLY OVER SERN OREGON
AND EXTREME NERN CA/ WILL BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.

PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY /D3/ AND THURSDAY /D4/ AS DEEP
BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING CONTRIBUTES TO AFTERNOON RH VALUES AOB 15
PERCENT AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AOA 15 MPH.  FARTHER TO THE
EAST...SRN/CNTRL WY WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY /D5/...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LEADING TO WARMING AND DRYING AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...CRITICAL SPEEDS WINDS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

..JIRAK.. 07/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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