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FNUS28 KWNS 242034

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

By mid-week, the mid/upper pattern should feature relatively zonal
flow across the northern Plains/Great Lakes, as a fairly expansive
ridge is anchored over the southern Plains. Farther west, a closed
low over northern California will gradually weaken/deform and lift
northeast through the end of the week as it is absorbed within a
belt of west/southwesterly flow over the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies. Southwesterly flow should then remain in place
over the Northwest through the weekend, likely bringing drier
conditions to much of this region.

...Dry Thunderstorm Threat...
Multiple days of thunderstorm activity will have already occurred
across much of the region, in response to several impulses embedded
in west/southwesterly flow. Primary among these systems, the
aforementioned closed low (currently off the coast of northern
California) will lift northeast and weaken through the end of the
week. Thunderstorm chances across the Pacific Northwest will
generally be confined to areas along and ahead of this system. Thus,
10% dry-thunderstorm areas are introduced for D3/Wed and D4/Thu in
advance of this trough and along the northwestern fringe of greater
monsoonal moisture positioned over the Great Basin.

...Gusty Winds/Low RH Threat...
In the wake of the previous low, a mid/upper impulse will advance
east across British Columbia and Alberta late this week. The surface
reflection will feature a front progressing from the Pacific
Northwest to the northern Plains D4/Thu into D5/Fri, with breezy
winds and low RH values behind this front. Global guidance offers
enough confidence in this scenario, such that, considering the dry
nature of regional fuels / multiple ongoing large fires, 40% areas
are introduced on D4/Thu for the Columbia Basin and D5/Fri for parts
of Montana.

..Picca.. 07/24/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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