Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 011934
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 091200Z

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE DAY 3-8 PERIOD WILL BE DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE PAC NW...GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON DAY
3-4/MON-TUE. THE UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MIDLEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AHEAD
OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO PARTS OF NRN CA/SRN ORE AND ID.
PW VALUES WILL APPROACH 0.75-1.00 INCHES AND STORM MOTION WILL BE ON
THE SLOW SIDE SO SOME WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT CRITICALLY DRY FUELS WILL BE OF CONCERN WITH ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE OF RAIN CORES. GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL DUE TO A DEEPLY
MIXED/STEEP LAPSE RATE SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. BUT DEEP LAYER WESTERLIES WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. FURTHERMORE...FORECAST MODELS HAVE LACKED RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE LATTER PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND ABOUT DAY 5.

..LEITMAN.. 08/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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