Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 302050
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

VALID 011200Z - 071200Z

ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN CONUS ON
D3/WED...AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THIS
REGION. ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL OVERSPREAD THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WED AFTERNOON. A WEAK CLOSED LOW INITIALLY OVER SERN
AZ...SWRN NM...AND NRN MEXICO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM D3/WED
INTO D4/THU. FROM D5/FRI INTO D6/SAT...AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF
THE WRN CONUS...AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS.
AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE W COAST AROUND D6/SAT...WITH LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IT WILL MOVE OVER CA AND
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN FROM D7/SUN INTO D8/MON.

...D3/WED: PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...
A 10 PERCENT PROBABILITY AREA FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS HAS
BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SERN AZ INTO SRN NM AND FAR W TX
FOR D3/WED. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY FORM
ACROSS THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW DISCUSSED
ABOVE. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING A WELL-MIXED/DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER WED AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LOWERED RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN FORM IN THIS REGION WILL POSE A LIGHTING
THREAT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION...EVEN THOUGH
MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK.

...D3/WED: PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CASCADES WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY MOVES OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STRONG/GUSTY WLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE LEE
OF THE CASCADES MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL ORE AND
S-CNTRL/ERN WA AS DIURNAL MIXING AND ADIABATIC WARMING ACT TO LOWER
RH VALUES. FUEL STATES ARE MARGINAL ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT SEVERAL
RECENT FIRES SUGGEST FUEL RECEPTIVENESS MAY BE GOOD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED A 40 PERCENT/MARGINAL
AREA WITH THIS OUTLOOK. THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN EVEN STRONGER
FORECAST WINDS AND DRIER FUELS PRECLUDES A 70 PERCENT/CRITICAL AREA.

...D7/SUN - D8/MON: PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST...
AS AN UPPER LOW DISCUSSED ABOVE MOVES ACROSS CA AND THE WRN GREAT
BASIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST. WHILE BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT THIS UPPER LOW...TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE CORRIDORS OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY
OVERLAP WITH LOWERED RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS. PROBABILITIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE INTRODUCED FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST
ON D7/SUN AND D8/MON ONCE MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES.

..GLEASON.. 05/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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