Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 261620
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

VALID 261700Z - 271200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTH/CENTRAL/EAST NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS...

THE ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

..MARSH.. 05/26/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0353 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY-MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN CONUS. THIS FEATURE...AND AN
ACCOMPANYING WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM...WILL PROGRESS EWD/ENEWD TO THE SRN
ROCKIES AND THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND N/S
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY.

...PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL/SRN NM...FAR W TX...AND VICINITY...
TO THE W OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE...ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM WILL BE MANIFESTED AT THE SFC
OWING TO DEEP VERTICAL MIXING...TO SUPPORT SWLY TO WSWLY WINDS OF
20-30 MPH. RH AROUND 5-12 PERCENT WILL COMBINE WITH THESE WINDS
AMIDST DRY FUELS TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SURROUNDING ELEVATED AREA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY
STRONG WINDS OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS IS
LIMITED IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW DESPITE
EXPECTED LOW RH.

ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD
EXTEND TO THE E OF THE ELEVATED/CRITICAL AREAS -- INTO PARTS OF THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES...TX S PLAINS...AND VICINITY. HOWEVER...UNFAVORABLE
FUEL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREAD OWING TO FUEL GREEN-UP PRECLUDES
FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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