National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FNUS21 KWNS 241649
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 241700Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NJ...ERN PA...SRN NY...WRN CT...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR N-CNTRL SD SWD INTO CNTRL NEB...

THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR THE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AREAS IN THE N-CNTRL PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST U.S.  THE ONLY
CHANGE NEEDED THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF SWRN OK
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WRN N-CNTRL TX AND THE TX LOW ROLLING
PLAINS IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT AREA.  SURFACE/VWP
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STRONGER BELT OF NWLY SURFACE-1KM FLOW IN WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
RAP/HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS SEVERAL HOURS OF RH IN THE 20-25 PERCENT
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS ARE FORECAST AROUND 20
MPH /GUSTS 25-40 MPH/ BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE AFTERNOON.  AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCED LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HRS WILL SEEMINGLY
HAVE A GREATER THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FIRE CONCERN.

..SMITH.. 04/24/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0252 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH A
SRN-STREAM IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY...AND A NRN-STREAM IMPULSE PROGRESSING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...BEFORE GRADUALLY PHASING TOGETHER BY EARLY FRI MORNING. SFC
REFLECTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE A WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS MO AND
A TROUGH EXTENDING N-NWWD INTO SK. NLY SFC WINDS WILL EXTEND N-S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT PLAINS W OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH. FARTHER
E...A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-MIDLEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...MAINTAINING A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS
THESE AREAS.

...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...
A BELT OF STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL NWLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BE DISPLACED
NEWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLOW-MOVING OFFSHORE LOW. DRY ADVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN PW FALLING TO 0.15-0.3 IN. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD /50S-LOW 60S F/...BUT GIVEN EXCEPTIONAL
DRYNESS OF THE AIR MASS...AS WELL AS STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING...DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15-25 PERCENT. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FROM
NJ/ERN PA NWD INTO WRN CT AND SRN NY...WHERE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
OF 20-25 MPH /GUSTS 30-40 MPH/ ARE LIKELY.

COOLER TEMPERATURES FARTHER N TOWARDS E-CNTRL NY AND WRN MA PRECLUDE
INCLUSION IN THE CRITICAL RISK AREA ATTM...BUT MIN RH VALUES ARE
STILL FORECAST TO APPROACH 20 PERCENT. FARTHER E INTO ERN
MA...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OCCURRED ON WED/D1 AND WILL PRECLUDE
HIGHLIGHTS...DESPITE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPROACHING/MEETING
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
A BELT OF 40-50 KT 850 MB NLY FLOW WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
IN CONJUNCTION WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE UPPER MS VALLEY. DEEP
DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF
20-25 MPH BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY 15Z...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN
RH VALUES FALLING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 20 PERCENT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER FARTHER W OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN RH VALUES 10-15 PERCENT...SUPPORTING AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. ACROSS S-CNTRL AND ERN NEB...SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
OCCURRED EARLY THU MORNING...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN AN
ELEVATED/CRITICAL RISK AREA.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...