Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 231543
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

VALID 231700Z - 241200Z

...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE ONGOING AREAS...WITH
ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO 20 MPH
WILL COMBINE WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 15-20 PERCENT TO INCREASE THE
FIRE-WEATHER THREAT. A CRITICAL AREA IS NOT INTRODUCED THOUGH...AS
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE.

...SOUTHERN CA...
DESPITE A WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...HOT TEMPERATURES AND
VERY DRY FUELS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS AS
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST...ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED
LOCATIONS.

..PICCA.. 07/23/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0353 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
THIS OCCURS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL REMAIN THE HOT
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.

...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRY AIRMASS TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES THAT
SHOULD FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM/DRY
AIRMASS...STRONG/GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP...THE COMBINATION LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST ELEVATED /AND POTENTIALLY LOCALLY
CRITICAL/ FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WEAKER AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY.
STILL...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE SINGLE-DIGITS TO MID-TEENS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER DAY.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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