Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
FNUS22 KWNS 281711
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
Added a critical area to portions of far southern New Mexico and
adjacent far west Texas for this forecast. Models indicate that
single-digit RH values and 30-35 mph surface winds will develop for
a period in the early afternoon before cooler air (and higher RH
values) filters in from the northwest late in the day. Consistent
model guidance depicting this scenario further increases confidence
of critical fire weather conditions developing in this region.
Elsewhere, locally critical fire weather conditions are likely in
portions of the lower Colorado River Valley. Duration of critical
surface wind speeds in this region lend some doubt regarding the
need for a critical delineation in this area as winds may weaken
some during the afternoon. This region will be monitored for a
possible critical upgrade in later forecasts.
Additionally, elevated fire weather conditions will re-develop over
the Florida Peninsula again during the afternoon in response to
10-15 mph surface flow, warm surface temperatures, and dry fuels.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/
A deep mid-level cyclone is forecast to track from portions of the
southwest States to the southern Great Plains, with a surrounding
belt of strong flow also tracking eastward. An area of dry
conditions/low RH, extending from portions of the southwest States
to southwest Texas, will be overtaken by a cold front advancing
southward/southeastward across portions of the southern Rockies
vicinity and southern High Plains.
...Portions of the lower CO River Valley eastward across portions of
AZ into southern NM and southwest TX...
Amid the aforementioned area of dry conditions/low RH (minimum RH of
10-20 percent), vertical mixing into enhanced flow aloft is forecast
to support generally westerly to north-northwesterly winds of 15-25
mph. The strongest of these winds are forecast to be concentrated
from parts of southern NM into southwest TX -- i.e., generally
removed from areas of relatively lower RH farther to the west across
parts of AZ through the lower CO River Valley. While elevated to
borderline-critical fire-weather conditions are anticipated,
confidence in any more than spotty/brief instances of critical
fire-weather conditions occurring is limited.
...Portions of the central FL Peninsula...
Easterly to southeasterly winds of 10-15 mph are forecast to combine
with minimum RH around 35-40 percent amid dry fuels, resulting in
elevated fire-weather conditions. Without stronger winds and lower
RH, critical fire-weather conditions are unlikely.
...Southern CA coastal ranges and adjacent foothills...
Enhanced northeasterly winds are forecast to combine with low RH,
resulting in elevated to critical meteorological conditions.
However, fuels are not expected to be sufficiently dry to warrant
elevated or critical designation.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...