Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 070907
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE ON D1/SUN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON D2/MON WITH VERY FEW OVERALL CHANGES.  AT
THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...YIELDING ANOTHER DAY OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WITH A
DRY/CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE ELEVATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
IN A BROAD AREA OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF VERY
WARM/DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA.  THE PERSISTENTLY
DRY WEATHER HAS ALSO LED TO CONTINUED DRYING/CURING OF FUELS IN THE
REGION...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FUELS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DESIGNATION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR THIS
FORECAST GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FUEL STATES...GUSTY NE WINDS /UP
TO 40 MPH/...LOW RH VALUES...AND NEAR 85F AFTERNOON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.  SURROUNDING THIS CRITICAL AREA...AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST DUE TO SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FUELS FOR
FIRE GROWTH IN AN OTHERWISE CRITICAL ATMOSPHERIC FIRE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AREA...COUPLED WITH FAIRLY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...WILL SUPPORT 15-25 MPH SURFACE
WINDS /WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ IN A BROAD AREA ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.  WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES /FROM
THE LOW 50S F IN NORTH TEXAS TO THE LOW 60S F SOUTH/ AND FALLING RH
VALUES TO NEAR 20 PERCENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.  THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DELINEATION INCLUDES AREAS
WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.  EAST OF THIS AREA...FUELS MAY BE A BIT LESS
SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE SPREAD GIVEN LIGHT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST TWO DAYS.

..COOK.. 02/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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