Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 311703
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1103 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

                 VALID JANUARY 31 THROUGH FEBRUARY 5

...RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL TO NWS TEXAS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The main weather focus continues to be the upper low moving toward
Baja California pulling moisture into WGRFC.  Precipitation
continues in eastern Colorado, eastern New Mexico, and northwest
Texas but is moving quickly east. Signifant rainfall should clear
the WGRFC area late Sunday.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.5 inches are forecast from central to northwest Texas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches are
forecast along the Texas coast.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state
is experiencingmoderate or worse drought (39%), and about 11% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly
two thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
(65%), and 4% has extreme to exceptional drought conditions. With
the exception of east and southeast Texas, soils are generally dry.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Minor flooding continues on the Neches and Angelina rivers near
Diboll (DIBT2) and Lufkin (LUFT2), respectively.  However, flows
along these reaches are slowly falling.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Sabine  River at Deweyville (DWYT2) remains steady just above
minor flood level based on reservoir releases upstream.
Toledo Bend will be shutting off one power generation unit at
midnight tonight, but will continue 1 unit until further notice.

...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Trinity River at Moss Bluff (MBFT2) has crested and now slowly
falling; expected to continue slow fall through this weekend as
Lake Livingston Dam releases continue to incrementally decrease.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other forecast locations are at or near seasonal flows across
eastern half of WGRFC and below normal across western half.
Forecast rainfall this weekend and next week could generate some
runoff, especially over the coastal basins and basins across
Southeast Texas where soils are saturated, but no significant
flooding is expected. Widespread river flooding is not expected
over the next 5 days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

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