Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 121521
1020 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2015

                 VALID OCTOBER 12 THROUGH OCTOBER 17


                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The closed low over Baja California is still drifting slowly to the
northwest. This is allowing drier air to invade most of our forecast
area allowing for warmer than normal temperatures over the region. As
the low begins moving north along the California coast, the heaviest
rainfall amounts will remain confined to portions of northern
Mexico through the next few days. This shift west will allow an upper
level trough to dig deeper into the Ohio River Valley bringing
another round of moisture to our eastern and southeast boundaries
Tuesday morning extending into deep south Texas by the afternoon.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible as an associated weak
cold front moves into the Gulf during this time.

Later in the week our attention will return to the closed low that
will begin to work its way back into the region.  This system may
bring chances of rain into the forecast near the end of the coming
week mostly to New Mexico. Some higher elevations in northern New
Mexico and Colorado may see a dusting of snow with this system as it
stalls briefly over western and central portions to New Mexico.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for the Tyler Texas
area into Louisiana and the Corpus Christi area hugging the coast
from Galveston to Brownsville.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch
are forecast along the coast from Victoria down to Brownsville.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Drought conditions have returned to a good part of Texas. Only
the Gulf coast, far west Texas and the panhandle are free from
abnormally dry conditions. Topsoil moisture has decreased over
the past month, which means it will require more rainfall to fall
for runoff to occur. In Texas 70% of the state is abnormally dry,
with 25% in severe drought.  In New Mexico, 42% of the state is
also abnormally dry.  Some beneficial rainfall will occur from
central and southeast New Mexico into the southwest third of Texas
the next several days, and some runoff will likely occur. Elsewhere,
the rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy
enough to cause significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Runoff from the very heavy rain event last week has finally arrived at
the Asherton (ASRT2) gauge. The river is expected to crest near flood
stage, but no further flood risk is expected down stream since the wave
of water will slowly attenuatre as it pushes further downstream.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Points along the Rio Grande between Amistad and Falcon continue to
recover from the heavy rain event a few days ago.  Elsewhere, rivers
are at baseflow and are not expected to see rises through the period.

The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:

National Precipitation Analysis:

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:

The US Drought Assessment:

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:



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