Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 061713
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1113 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014
VALID MARCH 6 THROUGH MARCH 11
...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES IN EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
The recent upper level disturbance has passed through Texas leaving
many areas with beneficial wetting rains. This has enhanced soil
moisture a small amount in central and southeast Texas as we near
the beginning of spring.
As this system leaves the region to the east, the outlook for this
weekend is to allow the next upper level low from the Pacific
Northwest to enter the region and continue to deepen as it moves
southeast into Colorado and New Mexico by late Friday. By early
Saturday morning it will have entered the Texas Panhandle and move
southeast as the day progresses. By Sunday morning rainfall will
reach the coastand increase in amounts as the system interacts with
moisture from the Gulf. This system should trigger much needed
additional precipitation throughout all of the WGRFC forecast area
from Friday through Monday.
This slow moving system is expected to produce widespread
precipitation with heavier amounts in the eastern third of Texas and
spreading out over deep south Texas and along the Rio Grande valley
to Del Rio and northern Mexico. The area from Del Rio southeast
along the mainstem to Brownsville has the potential to receive
moderate amounts of precipitation during the weekend through Monday
morning. There should be a return to zonal flow and warmer
temperatures as the system exits the area to the east.
Forecast models indicate the potential for additional precipitation
into the middle of next week beyond our forecast period
For Today into Friday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for portions of the eastern half of Texas
stretching from the DFW metroplex south through Brownsville with the
heaviest amounts east of Corpus Christi.
For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00 inch are
forecast for an area along and south of the I-10 corridor
encompassing the southern third of Texas from the Big Bend area in
the west to Shreveport area in the east including the entire coast
Almost all of New Mexico and 91% of Texas remain in some level of
drought category. In addition, 9% of Texas and 23% of New Mexico
are in extreme drought. The upper Rio Grande in south central
Colorado is in the abnormally dry category. Statewide, in Texas,
reservoirs are on average at 64% full. This is well below the median
average reservoir storage at this time of year, of about 80% full.
There is considerable variability across the state, with many of the
reservoirs in the western half of the state below 50% full.
Significant improvement in the drought is not expected in the short
term for the WGRFC area due to forecast precipitation totals of
generally less than one inch over the next five days.
The forecasted rainfall for the weekend is over areas that would
welcome a decent rainfall. It also represents areas whose soil
moisture is fairly dry and would accept higher rainfall totals. If
pattern shifts slightly or areas see higher localized amounts, some
small rises may occur. However, at this time no significant
flooding is forecasted for the next 5 days.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment:
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: