Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 241424
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
923 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

                     VALID MAY 24 THROUGH MAY 29

...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The weather remains relatively quiet through mid-week,then
conditions become favorable for the development of showers and
thunderstorms. An upper level pattern will result in the
development of showers and thunderstorms into the Memorial Day
Holiday Weekend. The southwesterly flow aloft will bring a
series of disturbances across the area. Low level moisture
remains plentiful, which points to thunderstorms with locally
heavy rainfall. The primary driver in the initiation of
thunderstorm development is daytime heating and the dry line
which will help provide the lift. Leftover outflow boundaries
from the previous day`s thunderstorms may also provide the
necessary lift. Widespread significant rainfall is possible
later this week into the weekend for a Northeast or East Texas
event.

As mentioned before, it will rain over the WGRFC area the next 5
days. Some areas will receive little to no rain. Some areas could
see pockets of very heavy rainfall, especially in and near the
strongest thunderstorms. Widespread significant rainfall is not
expected until later this week into the weekend.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to
0.50 inch are forecast for South Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches
are forecast for Northeast Texas and southwest into Central
Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the
remainder of the area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
forecast East Texas south and west into Central Texas. MAP amounts
of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of the area.

Soils are fairly moist across a good part of the state, especially
the eastern half. 3% of Texas is categorized as abnormally dry, with
less than 1% of the state in the moderate drought category. Over New
Mexico, 83% of the state is abnormally dry, and 40% remains in the
moderate drought category. The rainfall the next 5 days will not be
heavy enough for widespread significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Victoria (VICT2) and Bloomington  (DUPT2) are nearing crest
in moderate flood levels due to rainfall last week. Elsewhere,
flood levels have crested and have begun falling. Canyon Lake
is well within its flood pool and has begun releasing water
downstream. This is resulting in some sustained levels above
action stage on the Guadalupe River from Sattler to Gonzales which
will likely continue through the week.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Locally heavy rainfall the past several days produced rises across the
San Antonio System.Upstream/headwater points have crested. Routed water
from this event will push Goliad (GLIT2) near moderate flood levels.
Routed waters from Runge will attenuate slightly before arriving at
Goliad.

...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Higher than normal flows are occurring on portions of the Brazos and
associated tributaries due to recent rainfall and releases from
upstream flood  control  reservoirs.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir continues to pass inflows, keeping the lower
Sabine River at higher than normal levels with minor flooding
downstream at Deweyville (DWYT2).

...Neches Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flow are expected to continue for areas below Town
Bluff the remainder of the week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wet over most of the eastern half of the WGRFC forecast
area. Additional rainfall is expected later this week, which could lead
to more river flooding on basins already impacted.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


$$





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