Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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925
AGUS74 KFWR 191454
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
952 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2017

                 VALID OCTOBER 19 THROUGH OCTOBER 24

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDDLE UPPER
COAST TONIGHT/TOMORROW...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Cool and dry conditions will persist through early tomorrow, as
a result of upper ridging across the Southeast US. Rivers will
continue to fall across the WGRFC region the remainder of this
week, with no additional significant rainfall expected through
tomorrow.

The next chance of precipitation is expected tonight/tomorrow,
as an upper level disturbance moves across the Big Bend. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the middle Texas
coast late tonight and may continue through tomorrow morning. This
activity is not expected to cause any river issues. A cold front
is expected to move across the region Saturday night through Sunday.
Although the forecast models are showing this system as being very
progressive, rainfall amounts of up to 2.00 inches are possible
across North and East Texas on Sunday morning. No significant river
flooding is expected at this time, however some flash flooding is
possible across low lying areas.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for portions of the
middle Texas coast.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for the upper and middle Texas coast.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 2.00 inches
are forecast for areas along and east of I-35

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of East Texas.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 13%, and only 3% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions (mainly over extreme
northeast Texas). In New Mexico, 8% of the state is experiencing
abnormally dry conditions. Very limited rainfall is forecast over
the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Rio Grande above the Rio Conchos confluence (PIOT2) is slowly
falling within minor flood levels.

...Nueces Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lake Corpus Christi continues to release but volume has decreased.
Downstream points at Bluntzer (CBVT2) and Calallen (CAAT2) are
above criteria but are falling. The lake is above its
conservation pool of 94 feet and inflows from upstream are slowly
decreasing.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of the rivers across the WGRFC area are currently
below criteria levels. While rain is in the forecast, no
significant river flooding is expected over the next 5 days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

MCCANTS


$$





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