Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 021721
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1018 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2016

                 VALID DECEMBER 2 THROUGH DECEMBER 7

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
across Deep South Texas, however most of the activity remains
off the Texas coast.

All atmospheric ingredients are coming together for the makings
of a very wet weekend across the WGRFC region. Abundant moisture
continues to move into the area ahead of an approaching upper
level low pressure system. This area of low pressure, which is
currently located over the California coast, is forecast
to move over Mexico on tomorrow. This will allow significant
rainfall to impact portions Southeast and East Texas through
Tuesday morning.

Rainfall amounts for this event, are forecast to approach 9
inches across southeast Texas. Based on these amounts, widespread
minor flooding is expected and possibly some isolated moderate
flooding. However widespread moderate and major flooding is not
expected.

By Tuesday, this upper level low will begin to weaken and
move off towards the east, which will finally put an end to
the rainfall across the area.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 2.00 to 3.00 inches are forecast along coastal
basins of Texas. Lesser amounts are forecast for the remainder
of the region.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 4.00 to 6.00
inches are forecast for the eastern two-thirds of Texas. Lesser
amounts of 2.00 to 4.00 inches are forecast for mainly east of
I-35. MAPs less than 2.00 inches are expected for areas along and
west of I-35.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of up to 3.00 inches
are forecast for portions of southeast Texas. Lesser amounts are
forecast for areas along and east of I-35.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch
are forecast for areas along and east of I-35.

The rainfall earlier this month helped to improve (slightly) the
ongoing drought conditions across the WGRFC area. In Texas, the
areas considered to be abnormally dry is at 33%. Also, 15% of Texas
is experiencing moderate drought conditions and 1% is in extreme
drought, primarily over extreme northeast Texas. In New Mexico,
around 60% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions,
with 5% remaining in moderate drought.  The heaviest rainfall over
east Texas will fall over the driest part of Texas.  The rainfall
forecast over the next five days is not expected to be heavy enough
to produce significant amounts of runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All rivers are flowing at seasonal levels. The WGRFC is monitoring
the heavy rainfall potential through the weekend into early next
week.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

MCCANTS


$$





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