Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 231538
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1038 AM CDT SUN APR 23 2017

                   VALID APRIL 23 THROUGH APRIL 28

...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF WGRFC AREA UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK, THEN IT LOOKS STORMY ONCE AGAIN...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper air closed low pressure system is located over western
Tennessee this morning.  As this low moved east it pushed a rather
strong cold front through Texas.  This cold front brought cooler
temperatures and drier air to the region with its passage.  Some
residual showers fell near and behind the front the past 24 hours and
were noted through the central and eastern parts of the WGRFC area.
While the heaviest rainfall amounts were to our east over Louisiana,
nearly a half inch was recorded southeast of Marshall TX. And while
most of the showers diminished last night a few lingering showers
are occurring this morning over deep south Texas and northeast
Mexico.

Behind the departing low, a ridge of high pressure has developed over
the western parts of the WGRFC area.  With the exception of some
showers over Mexico near the old cold front, dry weather is forecast
this afternoon and tonight.  As the ridge slides eastward the dry
weather will continue over our region through Monday.

By Tuesday a more zonal upper air flow will develop.  As upper
disturbances ripple through this flow they may generate some light
precipitation over northwest New Mexico and Colorado Tuesday into
Wednesday morning.  Then on Tuesday night one of the upper
disturbances will move across Kansas and Oklahoma.  While most of the
rain from this disturbance is forecast from Colorado and the Texas
panhandle into Kansas and Oklahoma, a few showers may develop as far
south as extreme northern and all of east Texas into western
Louisiana into Wednesday.

After a mostly dry day Thursday, a stronger upper air disturbance is
forecast to move over Utah on Thursday night.  Along with some
precipitation over the western parts of the WGRFC area, there may be
a better chance for showers and thunderstorms over Texas on Friday
as this storm moves slowly east.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over central and
northeast Mexico, including the Rio Conchos basin.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over southern Colorado.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over extreme northeast Texas, as well as over the
northern half of New Mexico into Colorado and eastward across the
Texas panhandle.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an
inch are forecast for portions of extreme north and northeast Texas,
as well as over northern New Mexico and much of Colorado.  The
heaviest rainfall is forecast northeast of the WGRFC area over the
Arklatex.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast
over roughly the northeast two thirds of Texas, most of Louisiana,
the northern half of New Mexico and the remainder of Colorado.

Soil moisture conditions continue to show improvement due to recent
rainfall events. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the
area considered to be abnormally dry at 10%. Also, 2% of Texas was
experiencing moderate drought, with nothing in severe drought. In
New Mexico the Drought Monitor shows 46% of the state experiencing
abnormally dry conditions, with nothing in the moderate drought
category or worse categories.  The rainfall forecast will not be
heavy enough to produce significant runoff the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Higher than normal flows are expected to continue over the Brazos and
Rio Grande river systems into this week. Precipitation is forecast
across southern Colorado and northeast Texas at the end of the next 5
days. WGRFC will continue to monitor this situation.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

$$




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