Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 231636

Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1137 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017


A cold front swept east through the region on Sunday, bringing
showers and thunderstorms from Missouri and Illinois, up through
Wisconsin, Indiana, and Michigan. Most rain amounts ended up being
less than an inch across this area, but where storms passed
repeatedly over the same locations, amounts were higher. Reports
between 1.5 and 3 inches were seen in a band from the southern tip
of Illinios, up through the eastern part of that state and into
northwest Indiana, and continuing up through the western side of
lower Michgan.

A large and slow-moving low pressure system will settle into the
Great Lakes region today, where it will then stall out and
strengthen on Tuesday. This will keep rain falling over much of
Michigan, as well as adjacent portions of Indiana and Ohio.
Rainfall through early Wednesday could be as much as 2-4 inches
some places, including western lower Michigan where Flood Watches
are in effect.

...Hydrologic Conditions...

The rainfall and QPF noted above over lower Michigan and northern
Indiana could push a few river reaches over moderate flood levels
this week, and will likely cause many rises above bankfull and
minor flood levels. The Manistee River near Sherman, Michigan is
one that shows the potential for rising above moderate. We will
be monitoring this area closely for the next several days.

We now have 46 active forecast points with 7 above minor or
forecast to rise above minor.  Six of them are in lower Michigan.

Minor flooding continued around Montevideo, MN due to controlled
reservoir releases on the Minnesota River.

River flows continued to slowly recede in Minnesota, Iowa, and
Wisconsin after heavy rains in early October.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc

Emergency Call Back List: (in order DCG...WES...MAW)

If no response from this list, call the DOH, SCH or HIC.



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