Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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AGUS73 KMSR 281658
HMDMSR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1158 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

...PRECIPITATION...
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...PRECIPITATION FROM AN EXITING SYSTEM WAS
OBSERVED IN EASTERN WISCONSIN...THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
AND SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. TOTALS WERE GENERALLY FROM A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH TO ISOLATED ONE INCH REPORTS IN THESE AREAS.
ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED TO THE WEST...WHERE
AMOUNTS WERE MAINLY BELOW HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF NORTH DAKOTA.

IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA...WHILE ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED IN KANSAS SETS UP
TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT. AREAS IN
WESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA MAY SEE TOTALS OF HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TODAY. BY TOMORROW MORNING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS MINNESOTA...IOWA...MISSOURI...AND IN TO WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HALF AN INCH OR
LESS...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION THROUGH IOWA...NORTHEASTWARD IN TO WISCONSIN AND THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...WHERE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MAY
BE OBSERVED.  THESE ARE THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN REPEATED
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK...SO LOCALIZED FLOODING IS A
POSSIBILITY WHERE SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED.

...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...
WITH THE RECENT PERSISTENT RAIN... THE MISSISSIPPI AT FORT RIPLEY
AND AITKIN MINNESOTA HAS RETURNED TO FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. BANKFULL RISES HAVE OCCURRED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS
IOWA... MINNESOTA... WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. MANY OF THESE
SITES HAVE CRESTED OR ARE NEARING THEIR CRESTS. THE WISCONSIN
RIVER IS NEARING ITS CREST... MAKING IT SOMEWHAT VULNERABLE TO THE
EXPECTED RAINS TOMORROW. THE SOURIS RIVER IN NORTH DAKOTA
CONTINUES ITS SLOW RECESSION AT BANKFULL STAGES.

WITH THE QPF FOR THE NEXT THREE TO FIVE DAYS... THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF MORE LOCATIONS RISING TO BANKFULL AND FLOOD STAGES.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME IOWA RIVERS REACHING MODERATE
FLOOD STAGES... DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTIVE STORMS. THE NCRFC REGION HAS COME OUT OF DROUGHT MODE
FOR THE MOST PART... WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING RECENT RAIN...
MAKING MANY LOCATIONS VULNERABLE TO FLOOD GIVEN THE ACTIVE STORM
SYSTEM PATTERN.

FOR ADDITIONAL AND MORE IN-DEPTH INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER
FORECASTS...PRECIPITATION AND ALL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION
IN THE NCRFC AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...PLEASE REFER TO THE NCRFC
WEB PAGE AT:     HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NCRFC

EMERGENCY CALL BACK LIST: JDT...BAC...MMZ...RJW

IF NO RESPONSE FROM THIS LIST... CALL THE DOH...SCH OR HIC.


$$

...LLD/JMP...





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