Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 031309
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
909 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. THE 06Z SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WATERS WITH
LOW PRES E OF THE NT1 WATERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER MAINLY THE NT2 WATERS S OF
STATIONARY FRONT. THE 06Z GFS WAS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. SINCE PREVIOUS FCST INCORPORATED GFS
PARTIALLY...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO FCST/WARNING
HEADLINES. THE LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED
SEAS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE MWW3 FCST VALUES.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEVELOPING LOW PRES
CENTERED OVER THE SE PART OF ZONE 800 IN THE NT1 AREA...WITH A
COLD FRONT ARCING SE ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WTRS TO THE MID ATLC
COAST. OTHERWISE...RIDGING ASSOCD WITH HI PRES CENTERED NEAR
BERMUDA PREVAILS OVER THE NT2 AREA. DUE TO A LINE OUTAGE...WE HAVE
NOT BEEN RECEIVING ASCAT OR RSCAT DATA OVERNITE. LIGHTNING DENSITY
PRODUCT DATA AT 0630Z SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE
NRN AND CNTRL NT2 OFSHR ZONES...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS NEAR THE SE COAST IN ZONE 835.

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
NE TODAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS THE NT1 AREA. A
SERIES OF LOWS WILL PASS NE ACROSS THE NRN NT2 AND SRN NT1 WTRS
TUE INTO THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OVER THE NT2 WTRS WED
THRU THU. LOW PRES WILL FORM NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST LATER THU...
MOVE NE ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WTRS THU NITE AND FRI...THEN PASS N
OVER THE NT1 AREA FRI NITE AND SAT WHILE WEAKENING. A THIRD COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND APPROACH THE NEW ENGLAND AND NEW JERSEY
AREAS SAT NITE.

MODELS...THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
00Z MED RNG MDLS DURING THE FCST PRD...MAINLY DURING THE THU THRU
SAT NITE TIMEFRAME. A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS 30M SOLN/BOOSTED
ECWMF WAS USED AS A COMPRIMISE SOLN THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PRD TO
RESOLVE THE MDL DIFFERENCES.

SEAS...WNA VERSION OF THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III MDL AND 00Z ECMWF WAM
BOTH INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. THE WNA WW3 AND ECMWF
WAM MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR DIFFS
ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PRD...SO IN ORDER TO BE
CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND GRIDS USED A 50/50 BLEND OF 00Z WNA
WW3/ECMWF WAM FOR THE ENTIRE FCST PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TODAY.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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