Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 011759
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1259 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A 150 NM WIDE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FL STRAITS NW TO THE
LA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY SET OFF
A FEW TSTMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS. ALSO EXPECT SE 20-25 KT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NE
GULF AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. MODERATE RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W GULF TO THE SW OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE TX COAST
THIS EVENING. THE E PORTION OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL RACE SE
THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON MON NIGHT WHILE LEAVING A NW-SE
ORIENTATED REMNANT FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF WATERS ON MON
NIGHT AND TUE. THIS REMNANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE ON TUE
NIGHT...WITH LATEST BLEND OF GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 24N96W AROUND SUNRISE ON WED.
THE OFFICIAL GRIDS WILL USE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH TRACKS THE
LOW ENE PASSING S OF THE MS DELTA ON WED NIGHT AND MOVING INLAND
NEAR CEDAR KEY FL ON THU EVENING...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
TO ITS S AND THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON THU NIGHT.

EXPECT N-NE 20-30 KT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH 30-
35 KT MINIMAL WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAY SEE GALE WARNING REPOSTED FURTHER N ACROSS
OFFSHORE DOMAIN MAINLY DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SE
15-20 KT RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF TO THE E OF THE REMNANT TROUGH ON TUE NIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED
PATCHES OF 20-25 KT TO THE NE-E OF THE DEVELOPING LOW BRIEFLY ON
WED. EXPECT N15-20 KT WINDS W OF THE LOW AND FRONT EARLY THU
NIGHT...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH WAS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW-
MID CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
THUS INTRODUCED SHOWERS INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS. THE TAIL END OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS AND
TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARDS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT
NE-E 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING E-SE AT 10-15 KT
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL ON MON EVENING. EXPECT N-NE 10-15 KT CONDITIONS N OF THE
DISSIPATING FRONT ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE...THEN INCREASING TO NE-
E 15-20 KT ON TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...THEN
RELAXING TO SE 10-15 KT WED NIGHT AND FURTHER RELAXING TO 5-10
KT ON THU AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON THU NIGHT. THIS LATE
WEEK FRONT WILL BE STRONGER WITH POST-FRONTAL NLY WINDS AT 20-25
KT ON FRI.

NE-E 20-30 KT WINDS WITH 9-12 FT SEAS EXPECTED WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATER TONIGHT INCREASING THE NE FLOW TO 30-
35 KT/SEAS 10-13 FT WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF THE COAST. EXPECT
THIS NOCTURNAL GALE PATTERN TO DEVELOP EACH NIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. THE EXTENT OF NEAR GALE AND MINIMAL GALE WINDS WILL
EXPAND OUT TO 180 NM FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ON MON THROUGH
WED NIGHTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 16 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT
TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS
WITH SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR DAY 1. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A PAIR OF WEAKENING COLD FRONTS ARE KICKING OFF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ZONES. NW 20-25 KT POST-FRONTAL WINDS CONTINUE N OF
26N BETWEEN 60-55W BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OF THE 55W
TONIGHT. MWW3 HEIGHTS...AND EVEN NWPS SEA HEIGHTS...ARE 3-4 FT
LOWER THAN CURRENT OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA ACROSS THE SUB-
TROPICAL WATERS E OF 76W...THUS MANUALLY TWEAKED SEA HEIGHTS UP
A FEW FT FOR FIRST 18 HOURS. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT SE INTO THE N-CENTRAL FORECAST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
PASS S OF BERMUDA TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO CENTRAL
FL. SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS
EVENING...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO A 30-35 KT MINIMAL GALE N OF
30N W OF 77W LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE ON MON BOTH E AND W OF
A COLD FRONT. THE POST FRONTAL NW FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 20-30 KT
EARLY MON NIGHT...BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY GALE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE E OF THE FRONT TILL LATE MON NIGHT. OTHERWISE A SW-W-NW
20-30 KT WIND SHIFT EXPECTED N OF 27N ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PASSES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS ON THU WITH NLY GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS ON FRI.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE WARNING MON.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE WARNING MON NIGHT.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT.
     GALE WARNING MON NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     GALE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     GALE WARNING MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING MON NIGHT.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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