Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 211801
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
201 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED THEN LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

BROAD AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE SW GULF.
LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED DATA INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE GULF...
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...EXCEPT NEAR THE LOW WHERE FRESH TO
STRONG NW-N WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE S OF 21N W OF 94W.

ONE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO EXTENDING
INTO THE FAR NW GULF...WITH A STRONGER AND DEEPER REINFORCING
TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THROUGH THE N GULF COASTAL PLAINS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED UP ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF
AHEAD OF THESE UPPER FEATURES.

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF AND
IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS WED AS A
COLD FRONT THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WATERS AND SE OF THE AREA BY SAT.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE SW GULF THAT IS STILL FORECAST TO TRACK E-NE.
THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TWOAT FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON ANY POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME AND
WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
AFTERWARDS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THIS
FEATURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW TO SHIFT ENE INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH WED...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
THROUGH FRI THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS.

LATEST IN-SITU AND REMOTE SENSED DATA REPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE
E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH E-SE WINDS W OF 70W. SEAS ARE 2-4 FT E OF 70W AND 3-6 FT
W OF 70W. MEANWHILE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE IS APPROACHING 50W WITH IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS
ALONG WITH 4-6 FT SEAS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL
N ATLC WATERS THROUGH WED...THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THU...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL INTERACT WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO WATERS.

THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA AS DISCUSSED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION...
AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE FROM THE GULF
WATERS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS WEEKEND. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE A CONVERGENCE OF ENERGY INTO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOURCES...INCLUDING
BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...ENERGY FROM THE LOW...AND ENERGY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WAVE
PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN MEDIUM.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE NW PORTION INDICATED BY METAR REPORTS OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S NW OF THE FRONT AND MID 70S SE OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES OF 10-15 DEGREES. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL.
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS...EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE
BAHAMAS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE NW PORTION THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THEN WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD AGAIN REACHING 31N73W TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WED EVENING...FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU EVENING WITH THE SW HALF OF THE FRONT STALLING
OUT...THEN THE ENTIRE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR
27N65W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA BY FRI MORNING. LOW PRES
MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT FRI NIGHT WITH THE LOW TRACKING TO THE
NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW LEADING TO A LOWERING IN THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR
DAY 4-5.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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