Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 241720
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus.

Weak surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the eastern half of
the Gulf of Mexico. A strong low pressure center, that still is
moving through the SW North Atlantic, continues to move more to
the east. Southerly return wind flow is on increase across the
western Gulf. Latest scatterometer and surface data show SE-S
winds in the 15-20 kt in this area. These winds are occurring
ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter the NW corner of
the area later today. This next front will move across the
northern Gulf through Saturday night, then lift northward as a
warm front Sunday, ahead of a low pressure system that will be
tracking across Texas and Louisiana, and to the north of the
area on Monday and Tuesday. Fresh to strong winds are expected
briefly behind the cold front on Saturday, with seas building
to 6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will dominate the
western Gulf on Sunday, spreading eastward across the remainder
of the Gulf on Monday. Seas will remain generally below 6 ft. By
Monday evening, expect increasing winds to 20 kt near and to the
NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by a
thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus.

A cold front over the Windward Passage will dissipate later
today. Otherwise, A weak pressure pattern will result in mainly
gentle to moderate winds over the Caribbean through Saturday. The
pressure gradient will increase by Saturday night over the
southern Caribbean as high pressure builds over the SW north
Atlantic. This will result in moderate to fresh east to northeast
trades over the southern Caribbean Saturday night with locally
strong winds near the coast of Colombia. The trades across the
entire Caribbean will increase by Sunday night as stronger high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic, with nocturnal Gales
possible each night north of the Colombia coast Sunday night
through the middle of next week.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus.

A 1004 mb low continues over the northern zones near 30N76W with
a gale occurring to the northeast of the low, and strong to near
gale southerly winds over the remainder of the northeastern
zones, with seas of 8 to 13 ft over most of our northeastern
zones today. The low is forecast to track northeast and out of
our area of discussion tonight, and will continue to move farther
from our area through Saturday. This will allow winds to
gradually decrease and seas to slowly diminish through tonight
into Saturday. Generally fair conditions are then expected
across the zones Saturday, despite lingering swell subsiding over
the northeastern zones. By Saturday night, a cold front is
forecast to cross the northwestern zones, reaching from Bermuda
to the central Bahamas by Sunday, and east of the zones by
Monday. High pressure will support fresh east to northeast winds
behind the front through Monday night. The high will then become
settled over the northeast zones by the middle of the week.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning today.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.



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