Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 140518
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
118 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
S TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGE
NEAR 25N85W EARLY TUE WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH EARLY THU
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TX COAST THROUGHOUT THAT
TIME FRAME. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT N LATE THU...WITH A
HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR 27N85W EARLY SAT...WITH THE RIDGE STILL
CONTINUING NW TO NE TX. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN E-SE
5-10 KT FLOW...WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FT...ACROSS THE GULF WATERS N OF
24N W OF 85W THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN
TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE RETURN FLOW TO 10-15 KT ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN WATERS AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON
TUE INTO EARLY WED. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD E ON WED NIGHT
INTO EARLY THU TO ACROSS THE WATERS EVERYWHERE N OF 24N W OF 90W
WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN WITH SE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT/SEAS 4-7 FT EXPECTED OVER THE NW WATERS LATE
WED NIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF 24N W OF 89W ON THU NIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SAT...EXCEPT THE SE FLOW WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO
20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS THU NIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NE AND E-CENTRAL
GULF...EXCEPT W 10-15 KT FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
WATERS EARLY WED WHEN THE RIDGE AXIS IS POSITIONED WELL TO THE
S.

AN INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AND LOSE IDENTITY EACH NIGHT THROUGH
WED NIGHT SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY THE NORTHER EXTENSION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE. THE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN NE-E 10-15 KT FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO THE S OF 24N THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHEN
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON THU WINDS ACROSS THE SW GULF WILL
BECOME MOSTLY SE AT 10-15 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT...THEN GRADUALLY
INCREASING  TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 4-7 FT ON FRI AND SAT. MAY SEE
PATCHY 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT
EVENING.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LEEWARDS/WINDWARDS ATTM WILL PASS
THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND TUE...REACHING THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN DURING MID WEEK...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE IN
THE WEEK. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ENHANCED S OF 12N WITHIN ABOUT
480 NM E OF THE WAVE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON THU NIGHT INTO FRI AND
THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE AREA OF STRONG TRADES THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SW CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK THROUGH WED...BUT EXPAND
TO THE N AND W AGAIN ON THU-SAT. THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL RESUME ON
WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. FRESH TRADES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 20-
25 KT OVER THE AREA S OF 17N EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN ENE-WSW RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO PORT
CANAVERAL FL WILL SHIFT S TO A POSITION FROM 31N70W TO FORT
PIERCE FL EARLY TUE...AND FROM 31N60W TO THE PORT OF MIAMI FL ON
WED NIGHT WHERE IT WILL MEANDER THROUGH FRI...THEN SHIFT N AGAIN
TERMINATING NEAR FT PIERCE FL ON SAT. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT FLOW
CURRENTLY OBSERVED N OF THE RIDGE WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
ON TUE. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUPPORTING SLY 15-20 KT FLOW
BRIEFLY ON TUE EVENING/NIGHT...WITH 10-15 KT CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AGAIN EARLY WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. EASTERLY TRADES TO THE S OF
THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS
S OF 25N... EXCEPT FOR EVENING 15-20 KT PULSES ALONG THE N COAST
OF HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
ON WED AND THU NIGHTS. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE ENHANCEMENT ON
FRI EVENING WILL BE IN 20-25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 6-8 FT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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