Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 301857
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
257 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

A 1017 MB HIGH HAS SHIFTED TO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NEARLY E TO W RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN GULF. THE HIGH
WILL MEANDER ABOUT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE NW TO SE ALIGNED...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS IN THE
EASTERN GULF AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE FLOW IN THE WESTERN
GULF LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS
IN THE EASTERN GULF AND 3-5 FT IN THE WESTERN GULF. S OF 22N...THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE
W-NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK AND PRODUCE AN
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SWH MAX NEAR 6 FT MOST NIGHTS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE EASTERN U.S.
ACROSS ACROSS E CENTRAL CUBA AND THEN BROADLY ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP TODAY TO THE S OF
JAMAICA AND HAS SHIFTED SWD...FIRING ON TROPICAL WAVE MOISTURE
BEHIND A WAVE NEARING 80W. LATE MORNING SCAT PASSES SHOWED
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS E OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 4-6 FT WITH POSSIBLE PEAK TO 7 FT ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS ALONG 14-15N. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS INTERRUPTED FROM
BUILDING INTO THE BASIN BY LLVL WEAKNESS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH...BUT WILL REORGANIZE AND BUILD
ACROSS THE BASIN BY MID WEEK TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND
INCREASING SEAS AS NICE LONG WAVE LENGTH TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE BASIN. IN FACT...WINDS WILL FRESHEN MODESTLY OFF THE
COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND TUE...AND CLOSER TO
CLIMO LLVL JET POSITION. SEAS WILL RESPOND BY BUILDING TO 7-9 FT
WED NIGHT AND 7-10 BY LATE THU.

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 5-7 FT WILL
BUILD TO 6-9 FT TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
UPSTREAM TRADES NE OF THE AREA INCREASING DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING RIDGE AND LLVL WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE
TROPICAL WAVE. GOOD SURGE OF SAL EXPECTED BEHIND THIS NEXT WAVE.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARYACROSS
SC THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE AN INCREASING MOTION
OFF TO THE NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TUE AND WED. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE VICINITY OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NW WATERS
AND INTO N FLORIDA. NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS
THE ARE FROM SE U.S. SSE ACROSS FL AND NW BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND IS
HELPING TO TRIGGER ACTIVE CNVTN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TO THE E
BETWEEN 71-74W UNDER STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT.

BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE SAME ATLCRIDGE
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL ATLC WEAKLY WWD AND IS INTERRUPTED BY LLVL
WEAKNESS CARVED OUT BY SAID UPPER TROUGH...BUT WILL REORGANIZE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BY MID WEEK AND ATTEMPT TO BUILD SW AND W
INTO THE AREA E OF 70W. SE PORTIONS WILL SEE FRESHENING SE WINDS
BY MID WEEK BEHIND NICE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN WED-THU-FRI. MIXED LONG PERIOD NE SWELL AND ELY TRADE
WIND SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE SE WATERS ACROSS SE ZONES LATE
WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING...BUILDING SEAS 6-8 FT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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