Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 290819
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
119 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE 06Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRES ABOUT 210
NM W OF CAPE BLANCO WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ACROSS N AND
CENTRAL CA WATERS. NO NEW ASCAT PASS...HOWEVER VERY IMPRESSIVE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND LIGHTNING DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW STRIKES S
OF THE CENTER.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING FCST PERIOD. OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN FCST CONCERN IS DURING
THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS
IT PULLS TO THE NE. THE 00Z GFS IS STILL INDICATING SMALL AREA OF
STORM FORCE WINDS...THIS BEING THE 10M WINDS...WHILE ECMWF/UKMET
WHICH USUALLY UNDERDO THE WINDS BY ABOUT 5 KT OR SO ARE INDICATING
WINDS AROUND 45 KT. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL MAINTAIN THE STORM
WARNING FOR EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHERN PORTION OF OREGON
OFFSHORE WATERS AND INNER PORTION OF NRN WATERS. EXPECT THE WINDS
TO DIMINISH QUICKLY LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW ACCELERATES NE. ALSO
DO EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST GUSTS TO STORM...MAINLY OVER OREGON
COASTAL WATERS AS FRONT PINCHES ALONG THE COASTLINE. THEN FOR
TONIGHT INTO MON...HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS CA WATERS
WHILE A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVES ACROSS THE WA/OR WATERS. LOOKING
AHEAD TO MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THE MODELS INDICATE LOW
PRES MOVING SE FROM GULF OF AK WITH COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE
WA/OR WATERS. THE GFS IS FASTER AND A BIT FURTHER S WITH THE LOW
COMPARED TO THE UKMET/ECMF/CMC...AND FOR THIS REASON WILL LEAN
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE E
OF AREA WED AND WED NIGHT. FOR THE WIND GRIDS...WILL USE THE GFS
10M WINDS TODAY THROUGH 09Z MON...THEN WILL TRANSITION TO ECMWF
FOR THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

.SEAS...THE 06Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE OBSERVED
SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS WERE MOSTLY
WITHIN A FT OF THE ENP FORECAST VALUES. OVERALL...THE FCST SEAS
WITH THE ENP LOOK REASONABLE WITH THE STRONG LOW THIS
MORNING...AND WILL POPULATE WAVE GRIDS USING THE ENP VALUES
THROUGH 09Z MON. SIMILAR TO WIND GRIDS...WILL USE THE ECMWF WAM
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TODAY.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     STORM EARLY TODAY.
     GALE TODAY.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     STORM EARLY TODAY.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     STORM EARLY TODAY.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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