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AGPN40 KWNM 260818

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1218 AM PST Sun Feb 26 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The 06z surface analysis indicated strong low pressure west of
Vancouver Island with a cold front extending south across the
Washington offshore waters and into the far northwest Oregon
waters. Another low pressure was located over the southern
portion of the central California waters. An ascat pass from late
Saturday evening indicated area of gales west of the Queen
Charlotte islands embedded in a larger area of 25 to 30 kt winds
extending southeast. The western portion of the Washington waters
was in a data void area, however did get a ship report at 06z
over the far west portion of Washington waters reporting 35 kt.
QC of the ship indicated 33 kt with a 3 kt high bias.

The 00z models remain in very good agreement during the entire
forecast period, with only minor differences noted during the day
5 period. The only significant change planned for the winds grids
will be to add gales to the outer portions of the Washington
waters for today. The GFS and NAM 30m winds have both trended
slightly higher compared to the past few model runs, and using
the tool to indicate higher winds in unstable areas does give
some marginal gales to western Washington waters. Plan on using
the 00z GFS throughouth, but will use the first sigma level winds
through 21z Monday before transitioning to 10m. The models are
all very similar in moving the low into the Washington and Oregon
coastal waters today, then weakening tonight and Monday morning.
A high pressure ridge will build across the California waters
Monday and continue through the end of the week, with the ridge
eventually building across the Washington and Oregon waters
Tuesday night into Wednesday. A weak trough will also develop
along the California coast Monday night and persist through the
end of the week. The next cold front will affect mainly the
Washington and Oregon waters Thursday and Thursday night. At this
time it appears winds will remain just below gale in advance of
the front.

.SEAS...The 06z sea state analysis indicated that the ECMWF WAM
appeared to have a better handle on the seas with the low near
Vancouver Island. Will populate the wave grids using the ECMWF
today through 09z Monday as it looks more reasonable with the
strong north winds. For the remainder of the period, will use the
ENP values except from later Tuesday into Wednesday will use an
80/20 ECMWF/ENP blend as believe the ENP values are a few feet
too high.



.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale today.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale today.

.PZ6 California Waters...


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