Marine Interpretation Message
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AGPN40 KWNM 251935
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1135 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

CRNT GOES WV IMGRY INDC AN UPR RDG OVR THE EPAC...AN UPR LOW S OF
THE CAL WTRS...AND A TROF NR 140W. THE LTST NCEP SFC ANALYS INDC
A FRNTL BNDRY JUST W OF THE AREA...WITH THE ASSOC SFC LOW CTR NR
46N139W. THE 12Z MDLS INDC THE LOW WL MOV NE OVR THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HRS AND PASS JUST TO THE NW OF THE NW WAS WTRS...THO THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLGT DIFFS ON THE TMG AND TRACK. THE GFS HAD BEEN A
SLOW OUTLIER...BUT HAS SPED UP SOME AND AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH
THE 12Z UKMET/GEM OVR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECWMF
IS A LTL FASTER...AND A LTL STGR...AND TAKES THE LOW NW OF THE MDL
CONSENSUS BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS IS ABT THE CMPRMS AT THIS
POINT...AND PLANNING ON TRENDING FCST IN THAT DRCTN BY USING A
50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/ECWMF...AS THE PREV FCST FAVORED THE
00Z ECWMF RUN.

THE 12Z MDLS AGREE ON MAINTAINING THE UPR RDG OVR THE EPAC THRUT
THE FCST PD...AND ALL ALSO INDC THE SHRTWV ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE
SYS CRNTLY W OF THE AREA WL MOV OVR THE TOP OF THE RDG MON NGT
INTO TUE. AS A RESULT...THE GUID INDC SFC HIGH PRES WL DOMINATE
THE PTTN THRUT THE PD...AND THE FRNTL BNDRY W OF THE AREA WL CROSS
THE N PTN WHILE WKNG MON AND MON NGT. THE MDLS ALSO INDC A FEW
SYS PASS TO THE NW OF THE AREA...WITH THE RDG DVRTG MOST OF THE
ENERGY TO THE NW AND N OF THE OFSHR WTRS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GUID
ALSO INDC AN H5 VORT WL PASS UNDER THE RDG TO THE COAST LATE WED
INTO THU...AND DRIFTS NR THE COAST THRU FRI. IN ADDITION...A FEW
SOLNS INDC THE ENERGY WL DVLP INTO A CUTOFF LOW BY THU. ALL 12Z SOLNS
INDC THE SFC RFLCTN WITH A SFC TROF ALNG THE CAL COAST...WHICH IS
XPCTD TO INTERACT WITH HIGH PRES JUST W OF THE CAL OFSHR WTRS.
THE 12Z GFS/GEM ARE A LTL STGR THAN THE UKMET/ECWMF WITH THE
WINDS...AND INDC ABT 25 KT. THE GFS SEEMS A LTL MORE REALISTIC
WITH THE INTNSTY OF THE PRES GRAD WITH THE CUTOFF LOW CAUSING SFC
DVLPMT. HOWEVER...DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY DISMISS THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLN ATTM...AS IT HAS BEEN VRY CONSISTENT WITH ITS SOLN. AS A
RESULT...PLANNING ON USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS/ECWMF...AND WL
HAVE A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT IN THE NE CAL OFSHR WTRS THU NGT.
OTRW...THE GFS AND ECWMF AGREE FAIRLY WELL WHERE NOT MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...SO CONT WITH THE 50/50 BLEND FOR THE RMNDR OF THE
FCST PD AS A CMPRMS TO THE VRY MINOR DIFFS.

.SEAS...THE 12Z NWW3 AND ECMWF WAM ARE INIT WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF
THE CRNT DATA AND EACH OTHER...AND RMN IN RSNBLY GUD AGRMT IN THE OFSHR
WTRS AS SEAS ARE XPCTD TO RMN FAIRLY LGT THRUT A MAJORITY OF THE
FCST WITH HIGH PRES DOMINATING THE PTTN. HOWEVER...SOME MINOR
DIFFS SHOW UP ALNG THE CAL COAST THU NGT CORRESPONDING WITH THE
DIFF IN WNDS AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY. AS A RESULT...PLANNING ON
USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE WAVE MDLS TO REFLECT WX MDL TRENDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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