Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 180928
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
128 AM PST Thu Jan 18 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

GOES16 RGB Geocolor satellite images still show cyclonic
circulation center to the northwest of the PZ5 waters with a
break in cloudiness over the northwest portion of the Washington
waters. The lightning density map still shows a band of lightning
strikes in the area along the clouds ahead of the break in
clouds. The SREF_TSTMS still has PROB10 for TSTMS over the far
north waters and continues to indicate that in the short term
chances of TSTMS will spread into the northern and parts of the
central waters and so will keep TSTMs in the weather grids. The
06Z NCEP map now has low pressure 964 MB centered 180 NM
northwest of the Washington waters and its associated cold front
now east of the northern waters is oriented northeast to
southwest across the central waters. Pressure gradient over the
northern and central waters is still quite tight with maximum
observed winds in the storm force range. Earlier scatterometer
pass at 2042Z, though missed the area with expected maximum
winds, indicated winds in the storm force range over the northern
waters. Buoy 46005 has wind reports in the lower 40 kt but gusts
into the upper 50 kt. A ridge of high pressure still due north
of Hawaii extends east into the southern waters and has
maintained a relaxed pressure gradient.

Models GFS/ECMWFHR/UKMETHR/CMC have continued to initialize the
surface observations with small differences mainly on the
position of the low pressure west of the Washington waters and
also the central pressure value. Models have also shown small
variations in the wind speed associated with the same low. GFS
and CMC still have winds in the higher storm force range while
UKMET has low 50 kt winds and ECMWFHR has less than storm force
winds. Will continue with GFS initially and will retain most of
the previous forecast winds.

.SEAS...They are still quite large over the northern waters with
Buoy 46005, west of the Washington waters reporting 38 ft at
06Z. NWW3 still fits very well the observed seas pattern and has
continued to match the peak seas over region but has kept seas
slightly higher near the low pressure described above. ECMWFWAVE
is still underdone now by 7 ft with the peak value over the high
seas and also underdone by 2 ft over the northern waters. Will
therefore stay with NWW3. In the short term, both wave models
agree on seas subsiding over the northern waters as low pressure
slowly moves northeast.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...Storm surge around 1.0-
1.5 around Vancouver Island just north of the waters and will
reach 0.5-1.0 ft today along the Washington and Oregon coasts.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Storm today.
     Gale tonight into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday into Saturday night.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Storm today.
     Gale tonight into Friday.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale today.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale today.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Possible Sunday.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale today.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday.

$$

.Forecaster Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.



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