Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 191455
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
655 AM PST Sun Nov 19 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The ASCAT pass from 06Z shows a cold front crossing the
Washington and Oregon waters with winds 25-35 kt, highest NW.
Much of the California waters E of 127W indicates winds are
generally variable 10 kt or less. An altimeter pass from 09Z
shows seas to 15 ft across eastern Washington waters. At this
time I don`t anticipate making any changes to the current grids
or associated text forecast,

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

Satellite images still show clearing skies over the southern
waters with a band of clouds approaching from the northwest which
is still in line with surface synoptic features. The NCEP 06Z
weather map has high pressure 1022 MB over the southern waters
while low pressure 996 MB now over Vancouver Island has its cold
front stretching southwest and is now touching the northwest edge
of the Washington waters. Pressure gradient is fairly tight
especially ahead of the cold front over the northern waters where
maximum winds are in the gale force range 30 kt. Buoy 46005 West
Washington has winds reports of 25 kt winds with gusts to 33 kt.
The models GFS/ECMWFHR/UKMETHR/CMC have initialized well the 06Z
surface observation and they all agree on allowing a tighter
pressure gradient over the northern waters and that keep elevated
winds in the gale force range. The models are also in good
agreement in the extended period with just minor differences a
and so will just continue with GFS.

.SEAS...Over the central and southern waters, seas have remained
below 6 ft. Seas are higher over the northwest in response to
the advancing cold front and have peaked at 18 ft over the
northwest portion of the Washington waters. NWW3 and ECMWFWAVE
models fit well the observed seas pattern but ECMWFWAVE is still
underdone by almost 2 ft over the northern waters. Otherwise, the
wave models have been quite consistent in the previous runs. The
wave models also agree in the short term on keep building seas
over the northern waters but have different peaks with NWW3
having higher peak at 20 ft compared with ECMWFWAVE at 17 ft. So
will continue with NWW3 for seas.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...n/a.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Tuesday.
     Gale Possible Wednesday night.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale today.
     Gale Possible Tuesday.
     Gale Possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Tuesday.
     Gale Possible Wednesday into Wednesday night.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Tuesday.
     Gale Possible Wednesday.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale today into tonight.
     Gale Monday night.
     Gale Possible Tuesday.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Possible Tuesday.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Monday night.
     Gale Possible Tuesday.
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Monday night.

$$

.Forecaster Shaw/Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.


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