Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 301814
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
214 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

VALID 12Z FRI APR 03 2015 - 12Z TUE APR 07 2015


THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS CLOSEST TO BEING ON THE SAME PAGE
ACROSS THE ALASKA REGION ONLY AT THE VERY START OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE--EARLY FRIDAY APRIL 3. THEREAFTER, THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
ARE WILDLY DIFFERENT OVER THE BERING SEA AND PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS AND MAINLAND. EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE AT
TREMENDOUS ODDS, WITH THE FOLLOWING GENERALITIES NOTED. THE ECENS
MEAN IS FASTER TO SQUASH THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THAN EITHER THE GEFS OR MSC MEANS. THE ECENS
MEAN ALSO DISTINGUISHES ITSELF FROM THE GEFS AND MSC MEANS OVER
THE BERING SEA, SHEARING APART THE CYCLONE TRACKING EASTWARD FROM
KAMCHATKA AFTER IT CROSSES THE DATELINE. IT IS REALLY A MATTER OF
AMPLITUDE, WITH THE EUROPEAN CENTRE CAMP MORE MERIDIONAL THAN THE
GEFS AND MSC MEANS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THE EUROPEAN
CENTRE MEAN RIDGE POKES INTO THE EASTERN BERING ALONG
170W--EXACTLY THE REGION WHERE THE NAEFS CAMP FORTIFIES ITS
COMPOSITE CYCLONE NEXT MONDAY APRIL 6. COORDINATION WITH THE WFOS
TODAY RESULTED IN A FAVORING OF THE NON-EC CAMP ALONG THE LINES OF
CLIMATOLOGY--LESS COIN-FLIP THAN THE DILUTE SIGNALS
TELECONNECTIONS REVEALED.


CISCO

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