Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 201936
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
236 PM EST MON FEB 20 2017

VALID 12Z FRI FEB 24 2017 - 12Z TUE FEB 28 2017

PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE UNDERWAY OVER ALASKA DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. STRONG UPPER RIDGING INITIALLY IN THE GULF WILL BE
SQUASHED TEMPORARILY BY SATURDAY THEN TRY TO BUILD TO THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST INTO THE BERING SEA BY NEXT MON/TUE. THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT AND A BLEND OF
THE RECENT GUIDANCE (12Z GFS / 06Z GEFS / 00Z ECMWF / 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN) OFFERED A GOOD STARING POINT. TREND HAS BEEN A BIT
QUICKER WITH THE BERING SYSTEM ON SAT/SUN MOVING INTO NW ALASKA,
WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INLAND. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
FRONT SHOULD BE MORE IN TACT AND DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS UPSTREAM
RIDGING BUILDS. MODEST QPF STILL EXPECTED FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES (+2 TO
+3 STND DEV) AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES. THAT SHOULD CHANGE
BY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING SETTLES INTO THE INTERIOR AND BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS.


FRACASSO


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