Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 281854
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 01 2015 - 12Z WED AUG 05 2015

RATHER QUIET PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE 49TH STATE FOR THE FIRST
WEEK OF AUGUST AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE INTERIOR. THIS
SHOULD KEEP TROUGHING IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN AS WELL AS IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
00Z-06Z MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWED GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN... WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF SFC WAVES.

12Z GFS APPEARED TO FOLLOW SUIT THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY BEFORE TAKING
A SFC LOW INTO THE GULF WHILE THE ENSEMBLES DID NOT REALLY SUPPORT
THIS. OTHERWISE... A BLEND AMONG THE 06Z GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF/ECENS
MEAN OFFERED A GOOD STARTING POINT. LOWER HEIGHTS MAY PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH SLOPE BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH BUT OTHERWISE HEIGHTS > 570DM SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PRECIP SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM AND MOSTLY
AFFECT THE NW/N AND SW REGIONS.


FRACASSO

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