Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 301825
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

VALID 12Z MON NOV 03 2014 - 12Z FRI NOV 07 2014


THE LAST SEVERAL OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN MARKED BY A
HIGH LEVEL OF VOLATILITY, WITH THE ATTENDANT GEFS MEANS SUSPECT
DUE TO HOW FAR NORTH THEIR COMPOSITE PRIMARY SURFACE LOWS ARE IN
THE BERING SEA REGION. NOW THAT THE WINTER SEASON IS UPON THE
ALASKA REGION, VERY DEEP LOWS OVER FAR NORTHEAST RUSSIA WOULD BE
CONTRAINDICATED BY INCREASINGLY TENACIOUS LOW-LEVEL ARCTIC AIR.
THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN KEEPING THE STORM TRACKING ACROSS THE
BERING SEA ON A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL
CYCLES, AND WITH THE 00Z/30 ECMWF COMING IN LINE WITH THE ECENS
MEAN, FELT THAT AN EVEN BLEND OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND THE EC
MEAN WOULD BE MOST SERVICEABLE THIS PACKAGE.


CISCO

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