Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 230801
SWOD48
SPC AC 230800

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Any appreciable severe weather risk during this period seems to
largely hinge on potential tropical cyclone development which could
begin impacting parts of the Texas Gulf coast late this week.  It
appears possible that this system could linger near the Texas Gulf
coast for several days, over the weekend into early next week,
before perhaps accelerating northeastward in response to
developments within the westerlies.  Its possible eventual
interaction with a remnant weak baroclinic zone near the Gulf coast
also remains unclear.  However, the development of any appreciable
risk for tornadoes will probably require at least a tropical storm
strength system, and at least some motion/acceleration in a manner
that allows for the advection of tropical boundary layer moisture
into and inland of coastal areas.  Even then, the likelihood that
this threat reaches 15% probabilities still seems rather low.

..Kerr.. 08/23/2017



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