Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 010825
SWOD48
SPC AC 010824

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
EDMWF/GFS AGREE IN TAKING A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DAY4...THOUGH PRIMARY FORCING FOR
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER.  WITH STRONGEST UVV EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD SRN MANITOBA/NWRN
ONTARIO...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY FORCING FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER
GREAT LAKES.  WHILE SCT THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE WIND SHIFT COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
STORMS MAY NOT REACH 30 PERCENT CRITERIA.  BEYOND THE DAY4
PERIOD...STRONG SHEAR REQUIRED FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN DISPLACED FROM MOST BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN HALF OF THE
CONUS.

..DARROW.. 09/01/2014



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