Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 230834
SWOD48
SPC AC 230834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL-TO-MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST VARIOUS MEDIUM-RANGE PROGS
DETERIORATES STEADILY WITH TIME WITHIN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH
RESPECT TO DEPICTION OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS.
 WHILE MOST RUNS KEEP A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SE U.S. COAST --
I.E. OVER THE GULF STREAM...THE UKMET DOES DEPICT LANDFALL ON OR
AROUND DAY 6 /THU 8-28/ ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.
OTHERWISE...SUBSTANTIAL DISCREPANCY IS EVIDENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO EJECTION OF A WRN U.S. TROUGH INTO/ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS.  WHILE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WOULD LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES --
EVEN AS EARLY AS LATE DAY 4/EARLY DAY 5 -- RENDER ANY ATTEMPT AT
HIGHLIGHTING DAYS/LOCATIONS OF ANY SPECIFIC RISK IMPOSSIBLE ATTM.

..GOSS.. 08/23/2014



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