Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 261725
SWODY2
SPC AC 261725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL KS INTO WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO SERN OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL INTO THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON
FRIDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM CENTRAL
NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL EJECT NEWD
FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON FRI INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY BY SAT
MORNING WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN NEB TO
A CNTRL KS LOW AND WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN TX. AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

...MUCH OF CNTRL INTO NRN TX INTO ERN OK...
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA MAINTAINED BY A
SLY 40 KT 850 JET. GENERAL HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE DAY WILL ALSO AID
IN LIFT AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE ENTIRE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO ERUPT
INTO THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ALONG ONE OR MORE LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
LINES WITH OVERALL CONVERGENCE BEING WEAK. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
AND THE MOIST AIR MASS SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND ALSO A TORNADO OR TWO.

...CNTRL KS INTO WRN OK...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE ALONG BUT WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ALOFT. THE EARLY PASSAGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY LEAD TO SOME DOWNWARD MOTION AND AS A
RESULT MANY FORECAST MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP MANY STORMS ALONG THE
DRYLINE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOL AND STRONG
HEATING WILL REMOVE ALL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CONDITIONALLY...LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NEAR THE SFC LOW
OVER WRN KS INTO WRN OK.

...CENTRAL NY INTO VT AND NH...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG ARE FORECAST BY THE
MODELS BUT THERE IS ALSO A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE MIDLEVELS AS
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT. WHILE A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
WITH HEATING...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY FAVOR A FEW
LONGER-LIVED CELLS...IT APPEARS HAIL MAY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AS ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED.

..JEWELL.. 05/26/2016

$$



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