Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 080507
SWODY2
SPC AC 080506

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 PM CST FRI MAR 07 2014

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH TEXAS...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW AS IT DIGS ACROSS NRN MEXICO TOWARD DEEP
SOUTH TX LATE IN THE PERIOD.  00Z RUN OF NAM IS MUCH SLOWER AND MORE
IN LINE WITH GFS/ECMWF CLOSING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AS STRONGEST
FLOW ROTATES INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
BORDER.  THIS SLOWER SLY SOLUTION APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR INDUCING
WEAK SFC WAVE OVER THE WRN GULF BASIN.  AS A RESULT...OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AT LOW LEVELS...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION ATOP THIS
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE ELEVATED CONVECTION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SOUTH TX EXHIBIT MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES THAT ARE SATURATED AND SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT FOR DEEP UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT.  PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 850MB SHOULD YIELD SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG MUCAPE THAT WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR CLOUD TOPS TO PENETRATE
LEVELS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING.  GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD THEN WARM
ADVECTION/ASCENT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AND GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF
DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER THE WRN GULF.

..DARROW.. 03/08/2014
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