Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 281540

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1433 UTC Sun May 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.


A tropical wave extends from 16N95W to 07N94W, moving westward
at around 10 kt. This wave has been tracked across S America and
E Pacific waters the past several days as it has maintained
convection and is embedded in a sharp 700 mb trough. The
combination of the wave and monsoon trough supports scattered
moderate to strong convection north of the monsoon trough axis on
either side of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends from 12N101W to 04N100W, moving westward
at about 5 kt. This wave is becoming absorbed by a broad area of
low pressure developing just to its east. Scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm west of the wave axis.


The monsoon trough extends from low pressure in northern
Colombia centered near 10N74W to 09N82W to low pressure of 1009
mb centered near 12N100W to 12N110W to 09N121W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N121W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection are from 03N to 12N between 81W and 89W, and
over the waters north of the monsoon trough axis between 87W and



Moderate to fresh northwest winds prevail west of Baja California
between high pressure to the west and lower pressures associated
with troughing over Baja California and mainland Mexico. The
high will meander west of the region through the middle of this
week. By Tuesday night, stronger winds north of the area will
support 8 to 9 ft swell that will propagate over the waters west
of Baja California Norte for the middle to late week time period.

Over the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate winds are
expected to prevail with perhaps fresh to strong winds developing
over the northern Gulf of California Wednesday night as low
pressure develops north of the region.

A pair of tropical waves discussed in the tropical waves
section, and a broad area of low pressure, will all merge into
the low over the next couple of days. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue along and south of the coast of
Mexico south of 16N the next few days. Localized flooding and
heavy rainfall will be possible in these coastal sections as a
result. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft are expected over the Mexico offshore waters south of
Baja California through the middle of next week.


The Monsoon Trough will continue to intersect the region from
west to east the next several days, supporting convection mainly
north of 03N. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of
the trough axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. South of the trough axis,
moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds are expected
with seas of 5 to 7 ft.


A weak high will meander over northwest waters near 30N135W the
next 3 days then shift westward into the Central Pacific. Gentle
to moderate winds are expected over northern waters with 5-7 ft
seas. The only exception will be fresh northwest winds forecast
to develop north of 27N and east of 125W by Tuesday as the
pressure gradient tightens in response to low pressure developing
inland over the SW United States. These winds will support 8 to 9
ft seas over that area Tuesday through Wednesday night.

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail in
southern waters north of the ITCZ, with 6-7 ft seas increasing
slightly to 7-8 ft Tuesday as northeast trades strengthen to 20
kt mainly from 06N to 15N west of 130W. Seas are expected to
linger up to 8 ft west of 130W Wednesday through Thursday night.

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