Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060238
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 09N130W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
10 KT. THE LOW LIES WITHIN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 14N129W THAT IS
PROVIDING A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 111W/112W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS IN PHASE WITH A SMALL UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N113W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N TO 15N ALONG 123W/124W MOVING W
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY EVIDENT IN THE
LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF FAIRLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. IT
IS DRIFTING CLOSER TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRES AREA NEAR 08.5N125W
AND MAY START TO LOSE DISTINCT DEFINITION AS A RESULT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N80W TO 06N95W TO 06N100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN
240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 85W AND WITHIN 270 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
85W AND 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AGAIN THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE GERMAN
RESEARCH VESSEL SONNE. THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH
A LARGE DEFORMATION AREA IN PLACE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. WEAK RIDGING W OF
THE AREA IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SEAS STILL 4 TO 6 FT AS NOTED IN A PAIR OF RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...STRONG CARIBBEAN SEA TRADES CONTINUE TO
FEED ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. THE FRESH TO
OCCASIONAL STRONG E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PULSING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS WITH A PLUME OF
SHORTER PERIOD SWELL REACHING 8 FT AND PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST
AS 92W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TREND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK.

ELSEWHERE...WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...THE MAIN FOCUS IS
ON THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURES. THE LOW
REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WESTWARD TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 14N140W THEN WEST OF THE AREA TO A BROAD 1007 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 10N148W. FAIRLY WEAK 1018 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N
OF 20N IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES DEEPER INTO THE
TROPICS...EXCEPT NEAR THE AREAS OF LOW PRES. FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE ITS LOCATION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N130W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN


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