764
FXAK68 PAFC 301327
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 AM AKDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday night)...

Relatively quiet weather remains in place across much of
southcentral Alaska. A low-amplitude ridge continues to weaken /
shift east as an upper-level trough digs south towards the Gulf of
Alaska. Southerly flow ahead of this system has already brought in
widespread cloud cover to much of southcentral.

Shower activity will ramp up today, with the bulk of the
precipitation across Kodiak, along the immediate Southcentral coast,
and across the south to southwesterly facing foothills of the
interior mountain ranges. Most inland valley locations should remain
dry due to downsloping winds; however an isolated shower, especially
Tuesday, is not out of the question. The shift in the pattern will
also bring a return of southeasterly gap winds, with the strongest
winds likely today and Wednesday afternoon and evening across
Turnagain Arm, Knik River, and near the Copper River.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday night)...

Weak ridging extending west across southern mainland Alaska will
break down over Southwest Alaska today as a low pushes east across
the Bering Sea. A series of weak shortwave troughs lifting north
into Southwest Alaska have curtailed the spread of dense fog
across Southwest Alaska somewhat, with low visibility conditions
mostly confined to areas along the Kuskokwim Delta and northern
Bristol Bay coasts. The increased mixing/instability afforded by
the troughs should allow for fog to burn off earlier in the
morning today as compared to yesterday. Additionally, it will
allow for the development of isolated to scattered showers across
the lower elevations this afternoon.

Southeasterly winds increase for much of Southwest Alaska Tuesday
night as the front off the low in the Bering Sea pushes up the
Alaska Peninsula. This will shift the focus of precipitation to
primarily upslope areas along the northern Bristol Bay coastline,
with more isolated showers elsewhere. The front weakens as it
pushes slowly into Southwest Alaska, promoting shower activity
over Bristol Bay Wednesday night through Thursday night.

Out west, another low approaches the western Aleutians on Wednesday.
Its gale force front pushes through the western Aleutians
Wednesday night, but weakens quickly below gales for Thursday as
the low tracks into the Bering Sea. The low brings a round of rain
to the Aleutian Chain as its front pushes east through Thursday,
reaching the Pribilof Islands and Alaska Peninsula by Thursday
night. There is some potential for gale force winds on the south
side of the low to affect the central Aleutians Thursday night.

CQ

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

A weak ridge wobbles between the Northern Interior and the Arctic
Coast and weakens by Monday. Elsewhere, a broad area of low
pressure stretches across the Aleutians and Bering into Mainland
Alaska through the forecast period. A series of surface low track
over or along the Aleutians and cross the Alaska Peninsula over
Kodiak Island into the Gulf of Alaska into next week. Ensemble
models demonstrate good confidence through the weekend, but
diverge into the new week. A well developed area of gusty winds
with gale force gusts push over the Western and Central Aleutians,
diminishing late Saturday, but linger along the Eastern Aleutians
and AKPEN for Sunday. Widespread precipitation accompanies the
low, with locally heavy amounts expected for the AKPEN and along
the Alaska Range and Eastern Kodiak Island Friday and Saturday.
Rainfall continues along the Eastern Kenai Peninsula over Prince
William Sound and along the Southcentral Coast through Sunday.


- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this
morning. High confidence for Turnagain Arm winds to bend into
Anchorage this afternoon. Southeasterly winds are expected to
increase around 1PM today with sustained wind speeds from 15 to 20
knots and gusts up to 30 knots over the terminal. Winds look to
peak in the late afternoon/early evening and will gradually
diminish overnight. Can`t completely rule out a shower in the
vicinity this afternoon and Wednesday, but the probabilities
remain very low.

&&


$$