Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
622 FXUS63 KDDC 090701 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 201 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and mostly quiet weather through the end of the workweek - Increasing chances of rain through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 06z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows some 500 mb vorticity advection leading to a band of mid level clouds developing across far southwest Kansas. An upper level low centered over Sioux Falls, SD has led to a cold front sweeping across the central plains and cold air advection extending into central Oklahoma. Throughout today an upper level low is expected to develop in Utah and will propagate an upper level shortwave which is expected to move into southwest Kansas from the late morning through the early afternoon. This will keep a band of mid to high level clouds in place and with little moisture near the surface the rain chances should be less than 15%...however some virga or sprinkles could be possible from the late morning through the afternoon. Winds in the boundary layer will be out of the north through the day so diurnal heating will only increase 850 mb temperatures modestly to 12-14 (C). Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 70s. Tonight the upper low moves into western Colorado and a 700 mb shortwave is forecast to go from southeast Colorado to southwest Kansas. Short term models are hinting at a band of rain showers trying to make it from southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas. As a result I added (~20%) POPs from Elkhart to Liberal during the overnight hours and rainfall amounts if they occur should only be a few hundredths. Friday with west to northwest flow along and winds in the boundary layer still out of the north we should continue with a cooler air mass and some mid to high level clouds to decrease the diurnal heating a bit. Highs should once again get back into the 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Dry conditions continue through Saturday afternoon as a weak ridge of high pressure builds over the Plains. This will lead to mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. An upper level low will spin above the four corners region during this time frame then trek closer to the area this weekend into the first part of next week. As this low gets closer, weak disturbances may swing into the area bringing a chance of precipitation to western Kansas. Otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. Temperatures throughout the long term will generally be in the 70s Friday with upper 70s to low 80s Saturday and Sunday. 80s return as highs as we head into the first part of next week. Lows will start out in the 40s with some 50s across the eastern half of the CWA this weekend into the first part of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR flight category for all terminals during the TAF time cycle. A band of mid level clouds will likely lead to BKN to OVC skies at times through the morning hours. Winds in general should be sustained at 8-12 kts with gusts to 15 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Tatro