Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FGUS73 KEAX 061818
ESFEAX
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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1216 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

...2014 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 2...

THIS SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA(HSA)INCLUDING THE KANSAS RIVER...MISSOURI
RIVER...AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES...IN NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

...THERE IS A NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PROBABILITY OF
FLOODING THIS SPRING...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:DELAWARE RIVER
MUSCOTAH            27.0   28.0   36.0 :  30   31   28   28   <5   <5
:STRANGER CREEK
EASTON              17.0   18.0   23.0 :  81   81   68   72   <5   <5
TONGANOXIE          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  43   47   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS RIVER
DE SOTO             26.0   33.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TARKIO RIVER
FAIRFAX             17.0   18.0   25.0 :  53   59   46   57   26   40
:NODAWAY RIVER
BURLINGTON JUNCTI   23.0   28.0   35.0 :  11   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:102 RIVER
MARYVILLE           18.0   23.0   28.0 :   8   34   <5    8   <5   <5
ROSENDALE           18.0   18.1   23.0 :   9   28    9   27   <5   <5
:PLATTE RIVER
AGENCY              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  62   72   33   54   <5   <5
:LITTLE PLATTE RIVER
SMITHVILLE          27.0   30.5   35.0 :   6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE RIVER
SHARPS STATION      26.0   29.0   33.0 :  44   70   16   54   <5   22
PLATTE CITY         20.0   25.0   29.0 :  53   67   34   48    5   21
:BLUE RIVER
BLUE RIDGE BOULEV   35.0   39.0   48.0 :  10   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
BANNISTER ROAD      34.0   40.0   42.0 :   7    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
71 HIGHWAY          61.0   66.0   68.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
63RD STREET         48.0   53.0   55.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
KANSAS CITY BLUE    33.0   38.0   44.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
STADIUM DRIVE       33.0   39.0   43.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
40 HIGHWAY          30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
17TH STREET         24.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
12TH STREET         30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
LAKE CITY           18.0   25.0   27.0 :  19   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CROOKED RIVER
RICHMOND            20.0   21.0   29.0 :  49   54   44   49   <5   <5
:WAKENDA CREEK
CARROLLTON          16.0   19.0   21.0 :  59   57   48   44   37   28
:BLACKWATER RIVER
VALLEY CITY         22.0   25.0   31.0 :  75   80   54   60   21   21
BLUE LICK           24.0   29.0   37.0 :  89   91   49   39   <5    8
:LAMINE RIVER
OTTERVILLE          15.0   18.0   26.0 :  56   59   42   49    6    5
:MONITEAU CREEK
FAYETTE             16.0   21.0   25.0 :  52   51   21   22   <5   <5
:PETITE SALINE CREEK
BOONVILLE           16.0   19.5   26.0 :  61   63   46   48   <5   12
:THOMPSON RIVER
TRENTON             30.0   33.0   37.0 :   5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:GRAND RIVER
PATTONSBURG         25.0   30.0   32.0 :  38   43   <5    8   <5   <5
GALLATIN            26.0   33.0   39.0 :  36   42   <5   <5   <5   <5
CHILLICOTHE         24.0   28.0   35.0 :  70   68   54   58    5    6
SUMNER              26.0   28.0   40.0 :  83   79   77   76   <5   <5
:CHARITON RIVER
NOVINGER            20.0   23.0   26.0 :  23   26   14   16    6    6
PRAIRIE HILL        15.0   19.0   21.0 :  68   67   22   30   10   12
:SOUTH GRAND RIVER
URICH               24.0   26.0   33.0 :  79   93   68   84   <5   <5
:BIG CREEK
BLAIRSTOWN          20.0   23.0   36.0 :  86   89   70   75   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 3/8/2014 - 6/6/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:DELAWARE RIVER
MUSCOTAH              7.8   10.2   16.3   22.9   28.7   30.1   30.9
:STRANGER CREEK
EASTON               11.3   14.3   17.7   19.3   20.3   21.1   21.7
TONGANOXIE            8.7   13.2   16.5   21.9   24.3   25.1   25.7
:KANSAS RIVER
DE SOTO              12.3   13.6   14.7   15.9   17.7   22.4   23.3
:TARKIO RIVER
FAIRFAX               7.6    8.3   11.1   17.3   25.5   27.6   28.3
:NODAWAY RIVER
BURLINGTON JUNCTI     5.9    7.0    8.7   11.2   18.0   23.4   23.5
:102 RIVER
MARYVILLE             8.0    9.0   10.6   13.0   14.6   17.4   19.3
ROSENDALE             4.0    6.7   11.0   13.7   16.0   17.8   19.7
:PLATTE RIVER
AGENCY               11.0   12.3   17.2   21.7   26.0   27.2   28.2
:LITTLE PLATTE RIVER
SMITHVILLE           13.8   14.9   16.1   17.2   19.9   24.9   28.2
:PLATTE RIVER
SHARPS STATION       12.0   13.5   23.4   25.8   28.1   29.7   30.4
PLATTE CITY           7.4    8.8   17.0   20.5   26.0   28.2   28.9
:BLUE RIVER
BLUE RIDGE BOULEV    26.2   26.4   26.6   28.4   31.6   35.0   36.9
BANNISTER ROAD        8.4    8.8   11.8   17.9   24.8   30.1   35.2
71 HIGHWAY           36.0   36.4   39.0   43.5   48.9   52.3   55.7
63RD STREET          25.5   25.8   26.9   29.9   35.5   40.7   43.9
KANSAS CITY BLUE     11.6   12.6   15.8   19.9   24.1   27.2   29.6
STADIUM DRIVE         9.4   10.5   14.5   18.6   23.4   28.4   31.4
40 HIGHWAY            5.0    5.9    8.2   11.2   15.9   20.3   23.0
17TH STREET           2.6    3.1    4.9    7.6   12.3   16.4   18.7
12TH STREET           8.6   10.1   13.5   16.5   20.4   24.7   27.0
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
LAKE CITY             5.8    6.3    7.9   11.9   17.3   22.0   23.8
:CROOKED RIVER
RICHMOND              9.2   11.1   16.8   19.8   23.0   25.2   26.2
:THOMPSON RIVER
TRENTON              12.8   13.8   19.0   23.7   27.0   29.4   30.0
:GRAND RIVER
PATTONSBURG           3.2    3.2   17.8   22.6   27.7   29.4   29.8
GALLATIN              6.8    7.0   17.8   22.7   28.1   31.2   31.9
CHILLICOTHE           9.0   11.7   22.7   29.0   31.4   34.4   35.0
SUMNER               16.5   19.1   29.9   33.6   35.2   36.9   38.6
:CHARITON RIVER
NOVINGER              4.3    6.4   13.1   15.7   17.8   24.1   26.4
PRAIRIE HILL          5.1    7.9   14.2   16.6   18.6   21.0   21.5
:SOUTH GRAND RIVER
URICH                20.0   21.6   25.8   27.0   27.9   28.7   29.2
:BIG CREEK
BLAIRSTOWN           17.8   19.1   22.7   24.7   26.4   28.5   29.6

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

OUTLOOK:

FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
FLOODING IS NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

THUNDERSTORMS...NOT SNOWMELT...WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
SPRING FLOODING IN THE LOWER ONE-THIRD OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN.
WHILE THE PROBABILITIES OF FLOODING ARE BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
CASES...MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS WHICH TYPICALLY FLOOD AS A RESULT OF
AVERAGE SPRING RAINFALL STILL SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING.

ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS HAVE A NEAR 50
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOODING DURING PERIOD MARCH THROUGH
MAY: ST. JOSEPH...SIBLEY...NAPOLEON...WAVERLY...GLASGOW...AND
BOONVILLE.

THE FOLLOWING ARE OTHER MISSOURI RIVER TRIBUTARIES WHICH HAVE A
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING THIS SPRING: UPPER
STRANGER CREEK...TARKIO RIVER...PLATTE RIVER...WAKENDA
CREEK...BLACKWATER RIVER...LAMINE RIVER...MONITEAU CREEK...PETITE
SALINE CREEK...GRAND RIVER FROM CHILLICOTHE TO BRUNSWICK...LOWER
CHARITON RIVER...SOUTH GRAND...AND BIG CREEK.


RECENT CONDITIONS:

FROM DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PLEASANT HILL HSA RANGED FROM NEAR 20 ALONG THE IOWA BORDER TO THE
MIDDLE 20S ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
THESE VALUES WERE 4 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION DURING
THIS PERIOD WAS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE
DRIEST AREAS APPROACHED 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL ALONG THE
KANSAS-MISSOURI BORDER.

PRESENT CONDITIONS:

DURING THE PAST 7 DAYS...AVERAGE STREAMFLOW VALUES WERE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOWER KANSAS AND OSAGE BASINS.

CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY FIELDS INDICATE SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN. THE DRIEST
AREA OVER THE LOCAL REGION STRETCHES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS SOIL DRYNESS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR WHICH INDICATES ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE PLEASANT HILL HSA. RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS
REDUCED COVERAGE OF MODERATE DROUGHT TO ONLY A SMALL PART OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI IN THE VICINITY OF KIRKSVILLE.

ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW COVER REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AS A RESULT OF RECENT WINTER STORMS.  ADDITIONAL SNOW COVER
IS FOUND TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.  HOWEVER...THE WATER
EQUIVALENT OF THIS SNOW IS LESS THAN AN INCH. THESE UPSTREAM SNOW
COVER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT FLOODING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
WITHIN THE PLEASANT HILL HSA.

FUTURE CONDITIONS:

FOR THE 6 TO 14 DAY PERIOD...THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK INDICATES AN
ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT TWO
WEEKS.  THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL VALUES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION.  THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING NEXT MONTH.

THE THREE MONTH CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY
ALSO CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THIS IS THE FINAL SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR 2014.

PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX/ FOR MORE
WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION.

$$

SAW


















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