Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FGUS73 KEAX 202205
ESFEAX
KSC005-043-091-103-107-121-209-MOC001-003-005-013-021-025-033-037-
041-047-049-053-061-063-075-079-081-083-087-089-095-101-107-115-
117-121-129-147-159-165-171-175-177-195-197-211-227-212230-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
404 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...2014 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA(HSA)INCLUDING THE KANSAS RIVER...MISSOURI
RIVER...AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES...IN NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI.

...THERE IS A NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PROBABILITY OF FLOODING THIS
SPRING...

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID PERIOD:  2/22/2014 - 5/23/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:DELAWARE RIVER
MUSCOTAH            27.0   28.0   36.0 :  21   22   19   21   <5   <5
:STRANGER CREEK
EASTON              17.0   18.0   23.0 :  71   81   60   70   <5   <5
TONGANOXIE          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  34   43   <5   <5   <5   <5
:KANSAS RIVER
DE SOTO             26.0   33.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:TARKIO RIVER
FAIRFAX             17.0   18.0   25.0 :  41   52   31   49   13   36
:NODAWAY RIVER
BURLINGTON JUNCTI   23.0   28.0   35.0 :   8   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:102 RIVER
MARYVILLE           18.0   23.0   28.0 :   8   34   <5    5   <5   <5
ROSENDALE           18.0   18.1   23.0 :   6   26    6   25   <5   <5
:PLATTE RIVER
AGENCY              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  51   65   28   51   <5   <5
:LITTLE PLATTE RIVER
SMITHVILLE          27.0   30.5   35.0 :   6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:PLATTE RIVER
SHARPS STATION      26.0   29.0   33.0 :  42   70    8   56   <5   15
PLATTE CITY         20.0   25.0   29.0 :  47   68   24   50   <5   15
:BLUE RIVER
BLUE RIDGE BOULEV   35.0   39.0   48.0 :   5   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
BANNISTER ROAD      34.0   40.0   42.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
71 HIGHWAY          61.0   66.0   68.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
63RD STREET         48.0   53.0   55.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
KANSAS CITY BLUE    33.0   38.0   44.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
STADIUM DRIVE       33.0   39.0   43.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
40 HIGHWAY          30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
17TH STREET         24.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
12TH STREET         30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
LAKE CITY           18.0   25.0   27.0 :  16   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
:CROOKED RIVER
RICHMOND            20.0   21.0   29.0 :  50   51   47   46   <5   <5
:WAKENDA CREEK
CARROLLTON          16.0   19.0   21.0 :  57   57   45   44   38   33
:BLACKWATER RIVER
VALLEY CITY         22.0   25.0   31.0 :  69   75   51   57   21   23
BLUE LICK           24.0   29.0   37.0 :  77   86   32   40   <5    8
:LAMINE RIVER
OTTERVILLE          15.0   18.0   26.0 :  42   65   33   49    5    5
:MONITEAU CREEK
FAYETTE             16.0   21.0   25.0 :  52   57   18   20   <5   <5
:PETITE SALINE CREEK
BOONVILLE           16.0   19.5   26.0 :  66   68   44   54   <5   12
:THOMPSON RIVER
TRENTON             30.0   33.0   37.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:GRAND RIVER
PATTONSBURG         25.0   30.0   32.0 :  11   38   <5    6   <5   <5
GALLATIN            26.0   33.0   39.0 :  11   37   <5   <5   <5   <5
CHILLICOTHE         24.0   28.0   35.0 :  43   71   25   60   <5   <5
SUMNER              26.0   28.0   40.0 :  67   80   62   78   <5   <5
:CHARITON RIVER
NOVINGER            20.0   23.0   26.0 :  19   22   10   12   <5   <5
PRAIRIE HILL        15.0   19.0   21.0 :  63   67   21   28    6   12
:SOUTH GRAND RIVER
URICH               24.0   26.0   33.0 :  72   95   60   84   <5   <5
:BIG CREEK
BLAIRSTOWN          20.0   23.0   36.0 :  76   89   53   73   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                               CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                  AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID PERIOD: 2/22/2014 - 5/23/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:DELAWARE RIVER
MUSCOTAH              5.3    9.2   14.3   19.1   24.8   30.1   30.7
:STRANGER CREEK
EASTON               11.7   13.7   16.8   18.9   20.2   20.6   21.1
TONGANOXIE            9.9   12.0   16.0   19.7   24.0   24.9   25.4
:KANSAS RIVER
DE SOTO               9.6   10.5   13.4   15.4   17.1   21.4   22.4
:TARKIO RIVER
FAIRFAX               6.3    6.9    9.4   14.3   21.8   27.2   27.4
:NODAWAY RIVER
BURLINGTON JUNCTI     5.3    6.0    7.7   10.0   15.0   21.7   23.2
:102 RIVER
MARYVILLE             6.2    8.2   10.0   11.7   13.4   16.6   18.4
ROSENDALE             3.3    3.8    9.2   12.8   14.9   17.4   18.5
:PLATTE RIVER
AGENCY                9.6   10.6   16.1   20.4   25.6   26.7   27.1
:LITTLE PLATTE RIVER
SMITHVILLE           13.8   14.9   16.0   17.0   19.1   24.8   27.9
:PLATTE RIVER
SHARPS STATION       11.7   12.3   21.9   25.5   27.5   28.9   29.5
PLATTE CITY           7.6    7.7   15.7   19.8   24.8   27.4   28.1
:BLUE RIVER
BLUE RIDGE BOULEV    26.1   26.2   26.4   26.8   28.4   33.2   35.3
BANNISTER ROAD        8.6    9.3   11.3   17.3   22.3   27.0   30.7
71 HIGHWAY           36.2   36.8   38.5   42.9   46.7   50.0   52.7
63RD STREET          25.6   25.8   26.6   29.4   32.7   36.7   41.6
KANSAS CITY BLUE     12.1   12.9   14.8   19.1   22.3   24.9   27.9
STADIUM DRIVE         9.9   10.7   13.6   17.7   21.9   25.0   29.8
40 HIGHWAY            5.4    6.0    7.6   10.5   13.6   17.2   21.5
17TH STREET           2.8    3.2    4.4    7.0   10.3   13.6   17.6
12TH STREET           9.1   10.5   12.9   15.7   18.5   21.6   25.9
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
LAKE CITY             5.6    6.4    7.4   12.1   16.4   18.9   22.5
:CROOKED RIVER
RICHMOND              7.2    9.9   16.8   20.1   22.1   24.4   26.1
:THOMPSON RIVER
TRENTON               9.7   11.1   14.4   20.4   24.0   26.7   28.1
:GRAND RIVER
PATTONSBURG           0.5    0.6    2.1    9.5   19.8   25.6   26.8
GALLATIN              3.6    3.6    7.3   14.5   19.6   26.5   28.5
CHILLICOTHE           3.6    6.5   13.7   21.6   28.0   31.0   32.6
SUMNER               11.1   13.6   22.3   31.6   33.9   34.9   35.4
:CHARITON RIVER
NOVINGER              2.5    3.8   11.5   14.9   17.4   22.8   24.2
PRAIRIE HILL          3.9    6.9   12.8   16.8   18.6   20.3   21.4
:SOUTH GRAND RIVER
URICH                16.1   22.1   23.7   26.7   27.6   28.7   29.2
:BIG CREEK
BLAIRSTOWN           16.1   17.4   20.6   23.6   25.4   28.2   29.5

THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

OUTLOOK:

FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
FLOODING IS NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL.

THUNDERSTORMS...NOT SNOWMELT...WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
SPRING FLOODING IN THE LOWER ONE-THIRD OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN.
WHILE THE PROBABILITIES OF FLOODING ARE BELOW NORMAL IN SOME
CASES...MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS WHICH TYPICALLY FLOOD AS A RESULT OF
AVERAGE SPRING RAINFALL STILL SHOW A GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF FLOODING. ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THE FOLLOWING FORECAST POINTS
HAVE A 50 PERCENT OR GREATER CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING DURING THE
NEXT THREE MONTHS: WAVERLY...GLASGOW...AND BOONVILLE.

RECENT CONDITIONS:

FROM OCTOBER THROUGH MID-FEBRUARY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PLEASANT HILL HSA HAVE RANGED FROM 2 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITATION VALUES DURING THE SAME PERIOD GENERALLY
RANGED FROM 60 TO 80 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

PRESENT CONDITIONS:

DURING THE PAST 7 DAYS...AVERAGE STREAMFLOW VALUES WERE NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI...PLATTE AND GRAND BASINS.
ELSEWHERE...BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW WAS OBSERVED THIS PAST WEEK
ACROSS THE KANSAS...MARIAS DES CYGNES...AND OSAGE RIVER BASINS.

CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY FIELDS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT SOIL
MOISTURE DEFICITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BASIN. THE
DRIEST AREA OVER THE LOCAL REGION STRETCHES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS SOIL DRYNESS IS REFLECTED IN THE
LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR WHICH INDICATES MODERATE DROUGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LOCAL AREA.

THERE IS CURRENTLY NOT A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION...AND ANY SNOWPACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS GENERALLY
CONTAINS LESS THAN AN INCH OF WATER EQUIVALENT.  THEREFORE...THE
PRESENT UPSTREAM SNOW COVER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
BASIN ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT
FLOODING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WITHIN THE PLEASANT HILL HSA.

FUTURE CONDITIONS:

FOR THE 6 TO 14 DAY PERIOD...THE CLIMATE OUTLOOK INDICATES A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.
THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH...THERE IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL VALUES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION.  THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING NEXT MONTH.

THE THREE MONTH CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY
ALSO CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW...OR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON MARCH 6TH.

PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX/ FOR MORE
WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION.

$$

SAW
















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