Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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697 FXUS63 KGID 131723 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1223 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A bit of fog is possible this morning with very temporarily visibilities falling below 1 mile through around 9 AM. - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will end from west to east today as the responsible area of low pressure slowly transitions east southeast into Missouri. - Temperatures will be seasonably pleasant for at least the next 7 days, generally fluctuating in the 70s to lower 80s each afternoon. - Off an on chances for thunderstorms exist across the area through the period, although most chances are on the lower end and severe weather appears unlikely. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 An area of low pressure can be seen on satellite spinning across central Kansas this morning...slowly tracking eastward towards Missouri. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are rotating around this low and across the local area, but they should shift east through the morning/afternoon hours, with diminishing coverage and possibly even a little sunshine returning by afternoon. For this morning, low stratus has been attempting to develop across the local area, and as winds drop off, we have occasionally seen visibilities diminish to around 1/2SM at times...although this fog has not been persistent of widespread. Even so, think the potential for additional patchy fog development exists through the early morning hours, with this potential rapidly diminishing by around 9 AM. As a result, added the mention to both the HWO and forecast grids this morning. Otherwise...expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to gradually shift southeast through the afternoon hours...eventually exiting the southeastern most parts of the area by early evening. Previous runs of the HRRR/RAP brought an additional area of storms across the central portion of the area during the early afternoon hours...but models have since backed off on this and have more of a diminishing trend in pops through the afternoon hours. For tonight...mostly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop off into the 40s across the entire forecast area, which is a bit chillier than the past couple of nights, but still very seasonable for mid-May. Overall...seasonable conditions are expected through the period with the next chance for showers and thunderstorms coming with a weak cold front and upper level wave that should pass across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday. While pops are fairly high with this event, this does not appear to be a big soaker, with overall QPF amounts with this disturbance less than an quarter of an inch. Thereafter...the upper level flow becomes mostly zonal and fairly weak through the remainder of the period with daily weak disturbances justifying only very small pops across the local area. Looking at ensemble data, no day looks very promising for widespread or significant precip over the next week with some hints of a couple better precip chances coming the following week in both the GFS/EC data. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 There may be borderline MVFR CIGS into mid-afternoon Monday, but VFR conditions are expected from mid-afternoon Monday through the end of the TAF period. Cannot rule out some haze throughout the period, but currently do not anticipate impacts at the TAF sites so did not include this in this set of TAFs. FEW to SCT clouds from around 1400-3000 ft AGL may linger at the TAF sites through the mid-afternoon hours Monday, but clouds will slowly move off to the east/southeast later today, with clear skies returning to the area Monday evening through the end of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the northeast at 10-13 kts (cannot rule out an occasional gust to around 20 kts) Monday afternoon. After 14/00Z winds will diminish, becoming variable at 5 kts or less late Monday evening, then out of the southeast at 5-8 kts late Tuesday morning through the end of the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Hickford