Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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758 FXUS63 KGLD 091708 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1108 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light showers are possible today for Eastern Colorado. Greater precipitation chances are forecast for Sat/Sun. Widespread precipitation is possible, especially along and south of Interstate 70. Severe weather is not expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 323 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Current water vapor imagery shows a broad/elongated trough across much of the Northern CONUS while surface obs show nearly homogeneous surface pressure across the region. With these features in place, winds have weakened and are forecast to stay relatively lower today compared to the previous days. The upper trough is forecast to split into a closed low over the Western CONUS while the main trough axis positions over the Great Lakes. This will put the area in split flow which will keep conditions relatively benign today with highs in the 60`s and 70`s. There could be a few showers over Eastern Colorado this afternoon and evening with the edge of the closed low over the area and some mid level moisture. Tonight would see a mix of clouds and clear skies with the heavier cloud cover to the west where the moisture is flowing in associated with the upper feature. Lows would drop into the 30`s and 40`s. Tomorrow, more split flow is forecast for the area which will keep the height and pressure gradients weak. The cloud cover is forecast to continue to stream in from the west with the upper low forecast to stay roughly in position. This could allow for a few showers in Eastern Colorado, though it may wobble just far enough west to end the area`s precip chances. Temperatures will likely be fairly similar to Thursday with highs in the 60`s and 70`s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 323 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 For the long term, a more active pattern is expected both for the weekend and going into next week. The upper cut-off low near the west coast is forecast to begin moving back into the main flow to the east. This will increase the synoptic lift across the area and help advect in some more moisture from the west. With this, shower and storm chances are forecast to increase during the afternoon and evening hours both Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will be due to the upper low getting closer, Sunday due to a broad low pressure system that will swing through the Plains with general troughing through the Plains. The severe threat looks to be low both days with relatively weak flow and shear over the area. Will need to monitor the timing of any boundaries for any localized enhancements, or if a break in cloud cover can increase temperatures and instability. Otherwise, the multiple days of precipitation could allow for totals above an inch for those who get the heaviest storms or who see storms both days. This currently favors along and South of I-70. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70`s both days. The start of the next week may see near average conditions with temperatures in the mid to upper 70`s and late chances for precipitation associated with smaller disturbance moving through the area. The upper pattern is forecast to have the area under northwest flow as multiple lows and troughs move around the CONUS. Will need to keep an eye on Tue/Wed as a stronger trough may move into the Plains from the north and provide our next chance at a system though a competing cut-off low near the Baja Peninsula may compete and keep the better forcing north of the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1058 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR to borderline MVFR conditions are expected for KGLD and KMCK. Low level CU has formed over the region and are occasionally dropping to below 3,000 ft AGL. Slightly higher surface RH at KGLD gave enough confidence to include a TEMPO group for the MVFR conditions. As the day goes on, these cloud bases are expected to rise, and by around 20Z confidence is low that MVFR conditions will return. Winds will generally be from the northwest with occasional gusts up to about 20 KTS until 21Z. After that, winds will slowing weaken. There is about a 25% chance that patchy fog may form for an hour or two around 12Z tomorrow morning. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAK LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...CA