013
FXUS64 KHUN 090059
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
759 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 758 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Convection has started to develop and become strong to severe fairly
quickly this evening across the forecast area. This trend is
expected to continue over the next few hours for this first round
of storms. We remain in a pretty unstable environment with sfc
instability >3k J/kg and 0-1 km shear of >30kts and deep layer
sheer of > 45kts with plenty of moisture in place. This will
allow for storms to produce all modes of severe weather including
large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall and tornadoes.
Closely monitoring the line of severe thunderstorms with embedded
supercells up in Nashville`s forecast area as it sinks
southeastward into this untapped environment.

Even with all this convection ongoing, high-res models continue to
point out that we will not be overworked for the second round of
thunderstorms expected to arrive shortly after Midnight and exit
the forecast around around 6-7am. Confidence is high in this
timing as models continue to be consistent. This will be in the
form of a more organized line of storms moving southeastward.
Again, all modes of severe weather are possible:
large hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall that could lead to
localized flooding, and tornadoes. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches
is expected but higher amounts of 3-5 inches are locally possible.

Please stay weather aware this evening and tonight, and check the
forecast before going to bed. Have sturdy shoes by your bedside
and emergency kit ready to go in case you need it. It never hurts
to be prepared.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Showers and storms will gradually come to an end from north to
south Thursday morning, and the severe threat should diminish by
10am at the latest. High pressure will begin to filter into the
region Thursday into the weekend, resulting in dry and cooler
conditions. A weak shortwave will track across central MS into
central AL Thursday night into Friday morning and could result in
a few showers/storms mainly south of the TN River, but confidence
in this remains low. Highs will be limited to the 70s Friday
afternoon with clearing skies and breezy northwesterly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A generally dry weather pattern will continue across the region
this weekend. However, a clipper system diving southeastward into
the western Great Lakes will send a reinforcing cold front through
the region on Saturday, perhaps bringing a few light showers to
locations north of the TN River. Chances for rain will begin to
slowly return to the region as early as Monday, which is when a
series of lower-latitude troughs may initiate the development of
one or more areas of low pressure across the western Gulf of
Mexico that would shift northeastward early next week. Due to
indications of a modifying low-level airmass across the TN Valley,
instability will gradually increase as we move forward to
Tuesday, with a low chance for thunderstorms apparent as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions will continue until thunderstorms develop around
00-01Z. Expecting two rounds of thunderstorms, the first batch
around 00-01Z then again around 08Z. These storms could become
severe and bring higher wind gusts and IFR/LIFR VIS at the
terminals when directly impacted. Main threats within these storms
overnight will be frequent lightning, wind gusts up to 50-60kts,
and large hail. Gradient winds sustained at 12-15kts with gusts up
to 25kts will also be possible outside of any thunderstorm
activity. Otherwise, CIGS will return to VFR mid day Thursday.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...JMS