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000
FXUS61 KILN 161037
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
637 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift northeast today on the back side of an
eastward departing upper level ridge. Strong advection of
moisture overnight will bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms to the region. These storms will become more hit
and miss on Wednesday morning, until a cold front interacts with
an upper level trough to provide a decent amount of dynamic
forcing to spark showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Models have been consistently trending lower in the occurrence
and areal placement of shower activity today. Small downward
adjustments were done this morning but expect the synoptic runs
in just a few hours will be much more clear with their
determinations.

A warm front will move north-northeast today as broad warm
advection is found behind it. Some of this warm air pushing into
the front may find enough lift to spark shower and thunderstorm
activity. Any activity from this morning is expected to increase
in scope this afternoon as dewpoints in its immediate wake warm
into the low 60s. The low level moisture and temperatures
warming to the upper 70s and near 80 will give any ongoing
storms an added kick that may result in some damaging winds.

Models are sparse with where precip is being forecast and the
CAMs appear quite bullish in developing anything outside of
central Ohio and Hocking Hills in the late afternoon given
daytime heating. The marginal threat on the day 1 outlook feels
overdone and could have seen a larger push from the south with
regards to a lower threat.

Under high cloud cover and some developing mid level clouds in
the afternoon, highs will reach the upper 70s along and north of
the I-70 corridor, near or in the low 80s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Any showers lingering in the early evening will quickly be
shunted east-northeast and out of the forecast area. This
respite will be broken shortly after midnight as an area of
showers and thunderstorms work towards the IN/OH border and
rapidly move east into the remainder of the forecast area.

There is a possibility that storms will be out of the CWA
Wednesday morning, or experience a significant decrease in
coverage and intensity. However, a second round is progged to come
in from the northwest during the afternoon with the passage of
the negatively tilting h5 trough through northern Indiana. This
scenario would have a much lower impact on southern and
southeastern CWA with regards to severe weather.

In the northwestern half of the CWA, the negatively tilting
trough in combination with a moist airmass, some daytime heating
(possibly more if morning activity dies out), and steep lapse
rates will create the threat of strong thunderstorms. The
presence of an inversion around 5kft throws a potential to limit
all but the strongest cells to actually become storms. If so,
wind gusts and some hail are the primary threat. The axis of the
negatively tilting trough could supply enough vorticity that
storms in the environment may produce a tornado. This is not an
expectation in any way, but it is a non-zero threat that is more
focused over west central Ohio.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will be pushing through, or will have just
pushed through, the ILN FA for the beginning of the extended
period before the front begins to stall with westward extension
back in the wrn TN Vly Wednesday night. Slightly cooler/drier
air will briefly settle into the local area by Thursday morning,
with the pivoting/nearly- stationary boundary extending from
somewhere in the vicinity of the MO bootheel E toward WV.

Thursday should bring with it some tranquil conditions locally,
albeit somewhat brief. With the front stalling just to the S,
the cooler air for Thursday really won`t be all that "cool." In
fact, recent ensemble and deterministic guidance has trended a
bit warmer with highs for Thursday, with plenty of sunshine to
support this trend as well as highs top out around 70 (WC to
central OH) to the upper 70s S of the OH Rvr.

Clouds will be on the increase by Thursday effing once again as
a midlevel S/W approaches from the W within the quasi-zonal
flow established in the region. Some subtle WAA and moisture
advection will occur Thursday evening/night ahead of the weak
sfc wave and attendant front, which should be progressing
through the local area in the several hour period around
daybreak Friday. Ahead of the front and in the regime of
increasing moisture/forcing, SHRA and some ISO TSRA are expected
Thursday night into early Friday morning, with TSRA favored for
locales S of I-70 where a narrow axis of mrgl instby may
briefly develop. Guidance suggests that rainfall amounts with
this system should generally be on the order of one quarter to
one half inch, with iso higher amounts if more convection is
able to develop (especially near/S of the OH Rvr).

Clearing conditions should evolve by late in the day Friday as
slightly cooler air /finally/ begins to build in from the N
(although it will do so quite slowly, taking the better part of
24- 48 hours for the coolest air to arrive in the OH Vly). The
remains of the front will oscillate about the far srn OH Vly and
TN Vly through Saturday, keeping a chance of SHRA going S of
the ILN FA during this time frame. However, would expect that
dry conditions return locally Friday morning, with only a slight
chance for lingering SHRA along the far srn fringes of the
local area Friday night into Saturday.

A mix of sun and clouds is on tap for the weekend, with daily
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows in the upper 30s
and lower 40s. Daily average temps will be about 6-8 degrees
below normal from Saturday through Monday. We could even see
some frost Saturday night and especially Sunday night as the
core of the springtime cool air settles in. Clearer skies and
calm winds suggest Sunday night will be the best chance for more
widespread frost potential.

Dry conditions should prevail into early next week as temps
begin to slowly moderate toward midweek. Highs on Tuesday should
get back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary will drift north-northeast this morning
from its current placement running nw and e of Louisville. This
is slightly further south than earlier expectations but not
significantly so. Some weak WAA/moist convergence necessitates
keeping some chance (low) for showers and storms south and west
of metro Cincy. VFR conditions will prevail outside of any
precipitation as 5-10kt winds veer east- southeast.

The frontal boundary will move northeast as a warm front during
the day. Forcing remains generally weak and most models are
sparing in their precip footprint today, so will keep just a
chance of showers/storms. 10kt winds will veer southeast-south.

An area of showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward from
expected placement along IN/OH border near midnight. A tongue of
moisture being driven in on a fairly deep layer of lower level
winds around 40kt will aid in these storms maintaining as they
move eastward overnight.

OUTLOOK...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms through
Wednesday night. Wind gusts around 30 knots Wednesday afternoon
and evening. MVFR ceilings possible Thursday. MVFR conditions
possible Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Franks