Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 262014
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
314 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will continue in parts of eastern Minnesota and
  western Wisconsin through this evening.

- Much cooler air returns tonight through Wednesday night, which
  could lead to a flash freeze scenario after a couple days of
  liquid precipitation.

- Temperatures warm back into the 40s and 50s for highs later
  this week, with increased rain/snow/freezing drizzle chances
  over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

It`s been a busy week leading up to (and during) this record-
breaking spring storm. Kudos to everyone involved with the
forecasting and distribution of weather information during this
event - it takes a team and we are proud to be part of this
community! We are now in the final hours as the system gradually
diminishes and tracks northeastward into Canada. An additional inch
or two is possible, however the main impacts will come from reduced
visibilities with blowing snow and sneaky ice-covered surfaces
underneath the fresh layer of 2-4 inches of snow.

Visible satellite highlights the impressive stretch of cloud cover
associated with our spring system making its way out of the Upper
Midwest, with some clear skies starting to poke through in western
Minnesota. Clouds will clear out across Minnesota and Wisconsin as a
surface high pressure replaces the exiting system. Most locations
will drop into the teens tonight, bringing wind chills into the
single digits across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, and
below zero for western Minnesota. The breezy W/NW winds will help
keep our temperatures below freezing through Thursday afternoon. The
March sun angle should be enough to lead to some melting during the
day tomorrow, which would end up refreezing overnight. This could
result in another messy morning commute across the area tomorrow and
Thursday.

Slight upper level ridging will build across the central CONUS
Thursday into Friday, leading to a rebound in temps. A shortwave
embedded on the backside of the ridge will look to bring a shot at
precip Friday morning into Saturday (30-60% PoPs). The latest suite
of models hint at the potential (~20-30%) for freezing rain to fall
as the system moves across the Dakotas/Minnesota border. This looks
reasonable based on the 850hPa warm nose placed over a shallow layer
of cold air. The threat dimishes as the system tracks further east
with soundings show a larger variety of possible outcomes. Outside
of the freezing rain/drizzle, a rain/snow mix is the most likely
outcome Friday and Saturday. Overall, QPF will be light with the
system with only a tenth or two expected.

There will be a brief lull Saturday before another pronounced trough
builds over the western CONUS. Rain/snow chances are highest (70%)
for southern Minnesota, but there continues to be too much
variability in the track of the low to be able to say how much of an
impact it`ll have across Minnesota and Wisconsin. As of right now,
the system is favored to most likely to track over southern Iowa and
Illinois.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The system which has brought snow over the last few days is in
the process of diminishing and pushing eastwards, with lingering
effects for the first 6-8 hours of the period. Light snow with
blowing snow and reduced visibility is likely at all sites, with
new snow ending from west to east from 20-04z. Winds will relax
as the system moves eastwards, with diminishing winds falling to
around 10kts by the end of the period, directionally remaining
280-320. We will not have to deal with any mixed precipitation
as the snow line has pushed east of EAU and no further rain is
expected with temperatures below freezing.

KMSP...Snow will taper off within the first 6 hours of the
period, with the main concern being a chance at brief heavier
snow and lower visibility which is being observed west of the
Cities. Right now, the TAF is written such that MSP remains
within the general area of light snow and not within one of the
bands, however we may have to deal with a rapid/brief AMD if
this happens. Confidence in seeing one of these banded areas of
snowfall directly over MSP is around 20-30% at the moment, and
the threat of further banding is over by around 20z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-SN. Wind E 10-15kts.
SAT...Chc MVFR early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     Anoka-Benton-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-
     Isanti-Kanabec-Le Sueur-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Ramsey-Rice-
     Scott-Sherburne-Washington-Wright.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     Pierce-Polk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...TDH


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